Bitcoin Nears $100,000 Again: What's Behind the Surge?
Original Article Title: Bitcoin's Strategic Rebound: A Post-CPI Bull Case for 2026
Original Article Author: AInvest News Editorial Team
Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: Last night, Bitcoin experienced a short-term breakthrough, with a 24-hour increase of 3.91%. This article explains why Bitcoin may still usher in a round of structural rebound based on three clues: macro liquidity, institutional behavior, and on-chain valuation. First, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts and QE in 2026, liquidity inflow will re-elevate the valuation of risk assets. Second, during market retractions, ETF funds may withdraw, but core institutions continue to accumulate amidst the volatility, positioning themselves early for the rebound. Third, multiple on-chain valuation indicators show that Bitcoin is approaching the historical "value range," providing a more cost-effective entry point for medium- to long-term funds.
Below is the original article:
The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin (BTC), has long been seen as a key indicator of measuring macroeconomic changes and institutional sentiment. As we move towards 2026, multiple macro-level tailwinds and the renewed inflow of institutional funds are converging, laying the foundation for a strategic rebound in Bitcoin's price. This article will analyze the Federal Reserve's policy path, easing inflation, and changes in institutional behavior to form a strong bullish case for Bitcoin in the coming year.
Macro Trends: Federal Reserve Policy Shift and Inflationary Tailwinds
The Federal Reserve has decided to initiate interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) in the first quarter of 2026, marking a crucial policy shift. These measures are aimed at stimulating economic growth and addressing lingering but moderating inflation pressures. Historically, such policies tend to benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin.
By the end of 2025, core CPI had cooled to 2.6%, alleviating the market's concerns about long-term high inflation and reducing the urgency for significant rate hikes. In such an environment, funds are more likely to reallocate to alternative assets, with Bitcoin increasingly being seen as "digital gold," becoming a digital asset option comparable to gold.
The Federal Reserve's QE program, in particular, is likely to further amplify market liquidity, providing a favorable external environment for Bitcoin price appreciation. Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average return of around 50% in the first quarter, a period often accompanied by a corrective rebound from the volatility of the fourth quarter. As central banks around the world gradually shift their policy focus from "controlling inflation" to "prioritizing growth," the macro narrative surrounding Bitcoin is also transitioning from a predominantly defensive logic to a more constructive bullish framework.
Institutional Regression: Continuously Absorbing Liquidity During Volatility
Despite significant capital outflows by the end of 2025, such as the $6.3 billion net outflow from the Bitcoin ETF in November, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate: it added 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.1 billion) in early 2025.
Meanwhile, mid-size hodlers further increased their share of the total Bitcoin supply in the first quarter of 2025. This strategic buying during volatility reflects institutional and mid-sized fund managers' long-term commitment to positioning Bitcoin as a "value storage tool."
The deviation between ETF outflows and ongoing institutional accumulation highlights a more nuanced structural shift in the market: during price declines, ETF outflows, largely driven by retail sentiment, retreat while core institutional investors seem to be positioning themselves for a rebound.
This trend aligns with a typical pattern in Bitcoin's history: despite Bitcoin's overall long-term upward trajectory, short-term holders often continue to "sell at a loss" during volatility. This can be seen in the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): at the beginning of 2025, this metric remained below 1 for over 70 days, indicating that short-term holders were generally selling at a loss.
This behavior usually signifies that the market is entering a phase of "long-term fund accumulation": as short-term funds are forced to exit through stop-losses, it creates a more strategic buying opportunity for long-term investors and provides conditions for institutions to seek entry points for low-level accumulation.
On-Chain Metrics: In the "Value Range," But Still Need to Be Cautious of Bearish Risks
BTC Absolute Momentum Strategy (Long Only)
When the 252-day Rate of Change is positive and the price closes above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (200-day SMA), enter a long position. Exit when the price closes below the 200-day SMA; or exit when any of the following conditions are met: exit after holding for 20 trading days; take profit (TP) +8% / stop loss (SL) -4%
By the end of 2025, Bitcoin's price trend showed a significant retracement: with an approximate 6% year-to-date decline, the fourth quarter saw a drop of over 20%. At the same time, on-chain signals also displayed differentiation. On one hand, metrics like "Percent Addresses in Profit" continued to weaken, and selling behavior among long-term holders also increased; but on the other hand, indicators like "Dynamic Range NVT" and "Bitcoin Yardstick" suggested that Bitcoin may be in a historical "value range," similar to valuation states seen at various significant historical bottoms in the past.
This contradiction means the market is at a crucial inflection point: the short-term bearish trend remains intact, but underlying fundamentals suggest that assets may be undervalued. For institutional investors, this structural differentiation provides an asymmetric opportunity — limited downside risk with significant upside potential. Especially with the Fed's policy shift and Bitcoin's historical performance in Q1 2026 potentially acting as catalysts, this opportunity is further magnified; meanwhile, Bitcoin's narrative as an "inflation hedge asset" is also regaining market recognition.
Conclusion: A Rebound in 2026 Is Brewing
The combination of macro tailwinds and the return of institutional capital is building a more compelling bullish case for Bitcoin in 2026. Fed rate cuts and the start of QE, coupled with easing inflation, may drive more liquidity toward alternative assets, including Bitcoin; and even amidst significant volatility in Q4 2025, institutional buyers continued to accumulate, reflecting their confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value to some extent.
For investors, the core conclusion is clear: Bitcoin's upcoming "strategic rebound" is not just a price recovery but rather a result shaped by changes in the monetary policy environment and institutional behavior. As the market seeks a new equilibrium during this transitional phase, those who identify macro and institutional trends early and in alignment may be in a more advantageous position in Bitcoin's next phase of the market.
Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:
Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats
Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App
Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia
Related Articles
