What Key Signals Did the U.S. "All-Nighter" Reveal to the Market?
Original Article Title: "What Key Signals Did the U.S. 'Sleepless Night' Reveal to the Market?"
Original Article Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On November 19, both the stock market and the crypto market had a sleepless night as the highly anticipated AI leader NVIDIA was about to announce its earnings report, which would profoundly impact the subsequent market movements. The NASDAQ fell to 22,231 at one point, the S&P 500 dropped to 6,574, and Bitcoin, starting from around $93,000 in the early hours of November 19, plummeted to a low of around $88,600.
Fortunately, NVIDIA's earnings report brought good news to the market.
NVIDIA Q3 Revenue of $57 Billion Exceeds Expectations
As the "shovel seller" of the AI era, NVIDIA has not only supported a significant portion of the NASDAQ but has also become a barometer for global risk assets. Data shows that in the past six months, the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) has remained high. The movement of the NASDAQ is largely dependent on NVIDIA's performance.
On November 20 (Beijing time), NVIDIA's Q3 earnings report (natural year of August to October) was released, with revenue of $570.1 billion, exceeding the expected $551.9 billion; adjusted EPS of $1.30, surpassing the expected $1.26; and data center revenue of $51.2 billion, a 62% year-on-year increase.
The performance remains strong, with NVDA rising to $187 at one point.
In the earnings report announcement, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that the sales of the company's latest generation Blackwell architecture chips "far exceeded expectations, with cloud GPUs sold out," and that "the computational demands for training and inference continue to grow rapidly, both exponentially. We have entered a virtuous cycle of AI." He once again refuted the AI bubble theory during the earnings call, saying that there are many opinions about the AI bubble, but "from our perspective, it is completely different."
NVIDIA's earnings data provided a boost of confidence to the U.S. stock market, halting the downward trend, and the crypto market saw a rebound. BTC has now risen to around $92,000 and is hovering around that level.
Internal Strife at the Fed, December Rate Cut Hanging in the Balance
The minutes of the October FOMC meeting released yesterday revealed a rare division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December. Hawkish members clearly stated that they believe in a "stronger data dependence" and expressed concerns about the risk of inflation rebounding. On the other hand, dovish members emphasized that the labor market is rapidly cooling and argued for a "preventative rate cut."
The current federal funds target rate range is 3.75%–4.00%, which is the level following the second 25bp rate cut of the year in 2025. However, a sentence in the minutes stating "a number of participants noted that it might be appropriate to pause" directly surprised the market.
The latest data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December has plummeted from 95% two weeks ago to 28% currently. The latest data from Polymarket indicates that the market's odds of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in December have fallen to 30%, with the probability of no rate cut rising to 67%.
With the rate cut expectations now halved, the looming cloud of liquidity tightening has once again weighed on risk asset prices.
To make matters worse, the U.S. November nonfarm payrolls report has been officially delayed and will be released on December 16 due to government funding issues that have disrupted the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) operations. The October nonfarm data had already been significantly revised downwards due to factors like hurricanes, the September data was also delayed, and now the November data faces another month-long delay.
The market has completely lost its most critical anchor.
Goldman Sachs latest forecast suggests that the November nonfarm payrolls will likely only add 5–8 thousand jobs, well below the previous 22 thousand, and the unemployment rate may rebound to 4.3%. If the data turns out to be very weak, the Fed hawks will overwhelmingly dominate, and the rate-cut cycle may pause outright in the first quarter of 2026. However, if the data unexpectedly shows strength, it will further reinforce the expectation of "no rate cut."
Trump Lambasts Powell, New Fed Nominee Announcement Expected Before December 25
Less than two hours after NVIDIA's earnings release, Trump lashed out at Powell in an interview, stating, "I'd like to fire him (Powell)," and calling him "totally inept."
At the U.S.-Saudi investment forum in Washington, Trump urged Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to expedite the search for Powell's successor. Trump addressed Mnuchin, who was in the audience, saying, "You need to work hard, Mnuchin. The only thing you've messed up is the Federal Reserve."
Fed Chair Powell's term expires in May next year, while Fed Governor Brainard's term runs until 2028. Trump also half-jokingly pressured Powell:
The rates are too high, Brainard, if you don't get it done quickly, I will have to fire you.
He stated that Brainard had been privately urging him not to fire Powell, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick was "more inclined to fire" Powell.
Brainard, who is leading the search for the new Fed Chair, recently stated that Trump will meet with the three finalists after Thanksgiving on November 27, and the new appointee may be announced before Christmas on December 25. According to Polymarket data, the current market is betting the highest probability on Kevin Warsh.
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