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The highly anticipated stablecoin project Falcon's whitelist is about to open for participation. Is it worth getting involved?

2025-09-11 12:39

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Top-tier market maker DWF Labs' flagship stablecoin project made its debut and the timing of the launch was nothing short of perfect.

Original Article Title: Falcon Finance ($FF) Sale Analysis: DWF's Stablecoin Play

Original Article Author: Stacy Muur

Original Article Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

The token FF of Falcon Finance is about to launch its sale on the Launchpad platform Buidlpad. This is not just another ordinary token sale, but the flagship stablecoin project under the top-tier market maker DWF Labs is making its debut for the first time, and the timing of the sale is impeccable.

My Rating:

Overall Rating: 7.8/10. Strong fundamentals with clear upside catalysts.

Project Overview

Main Features of Falcon

· General Collateral Infrastructure: Users can collateralize Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, stablecoins, altcoins, and even tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to mint the stablecoin USDf.

· No Liquidation Risk: Unlike traditional Collateralized Debt Position (CDP) protocols, Falcon utilizes an overcollateralization mechanism with no liquidation process.

· Yield Generation: Users can stake USDf to earn sUSDf and achieve higher yields.

· Multi-chain Strategy: Already deployed on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Binance Smart Chain, with plans to expand to the Solana network.

Current Traction

· USDf has a circulating supply of $1.5 billion, achieving the 8th position in the stablecoin rankings within just 8 months of launch.

· Reserves exceed $1.6 billion.

· Monthly active users exceed 58,000.

· Total Value Locked (TVL) on Pendle exceeds $273.4 million.

Core Strengths of Falcon

Proven Product-Market Fit

Unlike most "promise-based financing" token sales, Falcon's stablecoin already has a circulating market capitalization of $1.5 billion. This is not a short-term "TVL boosting" operation, but a reflection of genuine stablecoin demand.

Heavyweight Institutional Support

· DWF Labs: Top-tier market maker with strong funding and close relationships with major exchanges.

· $10 million investment from WLFI: With connections to the Trump family, this can provide regulatory tailwinds and mainstream attention to the project.

· Buidlpad's track record: Previously launched projects like Lombard have performed well.

Excellent Market Timing

· Rising stablecoin narrative and clearer regulatory frameworks.

· Acceleration of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization trends.

· Crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration on the horizon.

· Institutional acceptance of DeFi yield products.

Sustainable Revenue Flywheel

Unlike pure governance tokens, Falcon has real revenue sources:

· USDf minting fees

· Interest rate spreads from sUSDf staking

· Integration fees related to RWA

· Revenue from cross-chain expansion

Falcon's Key Risks

Token Utility Questionable

Main Concern: FF is merely a governance token with no economic rights. Unlike MKR or AAVE, where token holders can participate in protocol revenue sharing, FF holders only have voting rights. This limits the token's long-term value accumulation potential.

Intense Stablecoin Market Competition

The stablecoin sector competition is fierce: USDC, USDT hold absolute dominance, while newcomers like PYUSD (PayPal stablecoin), FDUSD (Fidelity stablecoin) are endorsed by large institutions. Falcon needs to prove that its stablecoin demand can surpass the "DeFi yield farming" scenario and demonstrate sustainability.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Despite its association with the Trump camp, stablecoin regulatory policies are still evolving. Any negative regulatory trends could potentially impact the overall project's model.

DWF Labs Reputation Controversy

Despite being a top-tier market maker, DWF Labs has been criticized for employing a "pump and dump" strategy in some investments, making its involvement a double-edged sword for projects.

Sale Terms Analysis

Pros

· Two-tier Pricing Mechanism: USDf/sUSDf stakers can enjoy a $3.5 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) discount, while non-stakers receive a $4.5 billion valuation.

· 100% TGE Unlock: No lock-up period, allowing for immediate withdrawal if needed, providing high flexibility.

· Reasonable Fundraising Size: A $4 million fundraising amount is not excessive and is sufficient to support project advancement.

· Low Entry Barrier: Investment range is $50-$4000, making it accessible to retail investors.

Cons

· High Valuation Risk: Even with a $3.5 billion FDV calculation, the pricing is still high for a governance token without revenue sharing.

· Only Supports USD1 Payment: Forces users into the WLFI ecosystem, strategically limiting user payment options.

Catalysts and Upside Scenarios

Short-term Catalysts (1-3 months)

· TGE and Exchange Listing: Leveraging DWF's resources, a high probability of listing on mainstream exchanges like Binance, OKX, Bybit, etc.

· Cross-chain Expansion: Deployment to the Solana network or doubling the user base.

· RWA Product Launch: Integrating tokenized assets like national debts.

Medium-term Catalysts (3-12 months)

· Institutional Adoption: Corporate treasury departments using USDf for treasury management.

· Regulatory Clarity: Stablecoin regulatory framework establishment or industry-wide uptrend.

· DeFi Ecosystem Integration: More protocols including USDf in acceptable collateral range.

· Revenue Sharing Mechanism: Tokenomics upgrade allowing FF holders to participate in protocol fee distribution.

Price Prediction

Optimistic Scenario (Probability 30%)

· Target Valuation: Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) surpassing $1 billion (3-4x increase from $350 million entry price)

· Driving Factors: Listing on a major centralized exchange, airdrop hype, institutional adoption at scale Timeline: 3-6 months after Token Generation Event (TGE)

Baseline Scenario (Probability 55%)

· Target Valuation: FDV reaching $5-7 billion (1.5-2x increase from entry price)

· Growth Thesis: Steady growth with DeFi ecosystem penetration Timeline: 6-12 months

Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 15%)

· Target Valuation: FDV dropping to $2-3 billion (break-even to 15% loss)

· Risk Triggers: Intensified stablecoin market competition, regulatory issues emerging, or DWF Labs exit

Summary

Falcon Finance is a project with genuine implementation capabilities. As a functional stablecoin protocol, Falcon has achieved $1.5 billion in actual utility, has institutional endorsement, and clear growth catalysts. The token sale terms are reasonable, and the timing aligns with multiple macro trends.

The main risk lies in the fact that compared to governance tokens with revenue-sharing mechanisms, FF is less practical.

My conclusion: For investors bullish on stablecoins, RWA tokenization trends, and the Trump administration's crypto policies, this is a high-certainty positioning opportunity. Given the project's current progress and endorsement, the $350 million FDV entry price is attractive.