Original Article Title: "WLFI Unlock Countdown: Trump 15.75% Whale Holdings, Can the Market Withstand 'Presidential Dump'?"

Original Article Author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

On June 27, the Trump family's crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) posted that there would be a major news announcement and hinted at it being related to initiating token transfers. The community's enthusiasm for WLFI surged once again, exclaiming that "something big is coming."

In mid-June, there were already rumors in the market that WLFI would start circulating ahead of schedule. This was due to the WLFI project team removing the clause requiring a 12-month lockup from their website and adding a "the company may modify and update the terms of service at any time" disclaimer. Influenced by this news, the unofficial price of WLFI temporarily rose to $0.15 off-exchange, a tenfold increase from the first-round presale price of $0.015. The price has since retraced to around $0.12.

With WLFI's listing approaching, price predictions post-listing have become a topic of general market concern. In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will review WLFI's tokenomics and analyze the post-listing price and sell pressure based on holdings data for readers' reference.

WLFI Presale Review, Total Fundraising Exceeding $5.5 Billion

WLFI has a total supply of 100 billion tokens, all of which are currently locked. WLFI has undergone three rounds of presale, with the details as follows:

WLFI's first presale began in October 2024, with a price of $0.015 per token and a total supply of 20 billion tokens (20% of the total supply). The first presale saw slow progress initially due to a lot of FUD in the market, but as Trump launched the coin, WLFI's popularity gradually rose. Eventually, on January 20, 2025, all 20 billion WLFI tokens were successfully sold, raising $3 billion.

Following the end of the first presale, WLFI promptly initiated the second presale at $0.05 per token, with a total supply of 5 billion tokens (5% of the total supply). The second presale sold out on March 14, 2025, raising $2.5 billion.

The first two rounds of WLFI's presale were open to the public, while the third round was reserved for institutions and not open to the public, with a price of $0.1 per token. It is known that on April 9th, DWF Labs subscribed to 2.5 billion WLFI tokens for $25 million, and a whale made purchases of 8 billion WLFI on June 4th and June 12th for $80 million. The whale was initially thought to be the B2C 2 Group institution but was later debunked.

Based on the disclosed information, WLFI sold a total of 26.05 billion tokens through the three rounds of presale, accounting for 26.05% of the total token supply. However, since the third round of presale was not open to the public, the actual presale data may be biased.

WLFI Token Holder Data and Sell Pressure

Out of the 100 billion WLFI tokens, excluding the 26.05% from presale, there are still 73.95 billion tokens (accounting for 73.95% of the total supply) in "unknown circulation."

According to the financial disclosure document of Donald Trump for 2025 (as of January 2025), Trump holds 15.75 billion WLFI tokens through an ETH wallet, representing 15.75% of the total supply. The financial document values this holding at around $10,000 to $15,000, but at the current OTC price of about $0.12, it is approximately worth $1.89 billion.

Another significant holder in the WLFI community is Justin Sun. Between November 2024 and January 2025, Justin Sun invested $75 million through HTX-associated addresses and the TRON DAO into WLFI; according to public information, Justin Sun currently holds 3 billion WLFI tokens, accounting for 3% of the total supply.

According to on-chain data, there are a total of 85,870 addresses holding WLFI tokens. Crypto blogger @pow_fan compiled information on the funding levels of users participating in WLFI purchases. Although the data is up to May 27, it is still significant. @pow_fan personally purchased $1.91 million worth of WLFI tokens.

As shown in the chart above, addresses purchasing $0–$1,000 account for 77% of the total purchase addresses, with 66,910 addresses. However, these users contribute only 2% to the total purchased quantity, approximately 520 million tokens. Even if these are all in circulation, they would not significantly impact the overall market. On the other hand, while there are only 64 addresses with purchases exceeding $1 million, they contribute 56.4% to the total purchased quantity.

WLFI Token Sell Pressure

Therefore, as seen from the above data, WLFI is a token with high ownership concentration among large holders, which is both a pump advantage. However, in the event of a sell-off, it can instantly create pressure on the market, with retail investors likely to buy the dip from large holders.

The token's circulation supply determines the sell pressure. The WLFI team has not officially disclosed whether, once WLFI tokens are unlocked for transfer, they will choose to release them all at once, unlock them linearly, or impose specific restrictions on large holders. However, if we consider the extreme scenario of releasing all tokens at once, who among the large holders would create sell pressure?

Based on holder data, potential sell pressure would first come from Trump (holding 15.75%), followed by Justin Sun (holding 3%), and other large institutional investors like DWF Labs (holding 0.25%).

In reality, the probability of Justin Sun selling WLFI is relatively low. Although Justin Sun has a habit of "selling HSR as soon as he leaves the door" and "dumping TRUMP after dinner," this behavior occurred only after achieving his goals. Justin Sun's purpose in purchasing WLFI is to show loyalty to the Trump family, thereby helping Tron overcome obstacles in terms of U.S. compliance and listing. Until this goal is achieved, Justin Sun is highly likely to hold onto WLFI to avoid upsetting the Trump family.

The actual sell pressure will come from Trump and institutions. Trump is both the largest holder and the biggest source of WLFI sell pressure, as the fact that the Trump family views the crypto industry as an ATM is undisputed. However, given that there is still some "value" attached to the crypto industry, crypto users have not staged a large-scale protest or engaged in FUD. If this 15.75% of tokens were to quietly enter the market, it could potentially deliver a heavy blow to the market. WLFI would relive Trump's history, but may struggle to reach Trump's previous heights before the crash.

WLFI Listing Market Cap Estimation

So, what price could WLFI eventually reach after listing?

If the presale's over 26 billion tokens were to all become circulating, at the current off-exchange price of $0.12, the circulating market cap would be $3.12 billion, equivalent to Aptos' market cap, ranking 39th in crypto. If the price exceeds $0.5, the market cap would be $13 billion, surpassing HYPE, ranking 13th in crypto. If the price exceeds $1, the market cap would be $26 billion, surpassing DOGE and TRX's market cap, ranking 8th in crypto.

As for the previous token of the Trump family, TRUMP, its price once reached as high as $82, with a circulating market cap of around $13 billion, equivalent to WLFI's price breaking through $0.5.

Considering business comparisons, WLFI has a stablecoin product, USD 1, which can be compared to Circle: Circle's current market cap is $44.7 billion, with a circulating market cap of around $23.7 billion; based on this benchmark, WLFI's price will be around $0.8 to $1.

Of course, there are also extremely optimistic members in the community who believe that WLFI's launch will reach $0.47, then break through to $4.7, and eventually reach the height of $47. Why the number "47"? The reason may be that previously WLFI airdropped 47 USD1 tokens to holders, and Trump is now serving as the 47th President of the United States.

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