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OKX Impacting US Stocks, Is the CEX Industry Approaching a New "Listing Wave" Inflection Point?

2025-06-23 15:07

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Source: Aussie Master Brother

Today, the news about OKX planning to list in the United States has been widely circulated in the crypto community. Even OKB surged by as much as 10 points at its peak. After reading various opinions, including:

1. Bullish for OKX to expand market share

2. Bullish for OKB price increase

3. Bullish for @star_okx's wealth to further grow

4. Opening up new paths for other uninvited CEXs and projects

5. Signal of the peak of the bull market

Hmmm, I don't quite agree with some of these opinions, but some are interesting. Initially, I wanted to read @Yueqi_Yang's journalist story to see her opinion, but it seems I have to spend a few hundred dollars to subscribe, so I decided against it. The potential U.S. stock listing of OKX is indeed a significant event for the industry. I will conduct my own research and write based on my thoughts.

First of all, congratulations to @star_okx (Note: OKX Founder) for finally realizing the fruits of many years of groundwork. From buying Shell Chain Cloud on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange years ago to later being willing to abandon a large number of retail users as a CEX in pursuit of compliance, reducing empowerment for OKB, and even self-defeating during the wallet battle critical moment by agreeing to move towards compliance, his determination can be seen. Many things are hard to understand in the short term. For example, OKX was very aggressive in listing and new project operations in the past, but suddenly became exceptionally conservative. Isn't this driving away their retail users? (Today, below the journalist's tweet, there are still people mocking that OKX is no longer a top three CEX) But now, if you connect many of their past decisions with this line of seeking a U.S. stock listing, you can understand. From rapid growth to entry into mainstream finance, sometimes one must make bold decisions.

In short: Star has gone to great lengths for appeasement, and the mystery of many past inexplicable operations is beginning to unfold.

Key Points to Watch If Listed

1. The Future of OKB

Take OKB as an example. If OKX intends to list in the U.S., OKB is likely to become redundant, or even marginalized (so why did it rise today? Perhaps because this bullish news is not related to any other relevant assets). One reason OKB has rarely empowered projects like BNB over the past two years is that it would enhance its security attributes, making it prone to falling under the Howey Test (securities determination standard).

Regulatory Perspective: SEC Highly Sensitive to Platform Coins

From the perspective of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the vast majority of platform coins are likely to be deemed "unregistered securities," and OKB is no exception.

For example:

• BNB: In the lawsuit filed by the SEC against Binance, it was explicitly stated that BNB is considered a security.

• FTT: After the collapse of FTX, FTT was also deemed an illegal security by the SEC.

• COINBASE voluntarily gave up issuing a platform coin before going public to avoid potential legal obstacles.

Therefore, if OKX wants to successfully list in the US, the "securities risk" of OKB is a significant obstacle. At the moment, I feel like I'm in a situation where I dare not promote OKB but can't eliminate it either. My personal speculation is that the most probable strategy for OKX's treatment of OKB in the future is to restructure the business and independently give the operational rights of OKB to non-US entities, positioning it as an equity-type token for the international market/a gas token for a decentralized public chain. When I asked a few friends, some of them even suggested that OKB might be sidelined to a certain extent and become a "discarded legacy," even if OKX successfully lists and deliberately downplays the existence of OKB.

I agree with another view: $OKB may be retained but with efforts to reduce its strong ties with CEX and meet the needs of decentralization, such as OKX's public chain.

Final Conclusion: At this stage, I am not inclined to invest in $OKB, and shorting it also requires caution because this coin is too centralized. Unless the market misunderstands the logical relationship and sees OKX's listing as a positive for OKB, creating FOMO, I dare not touch it either.

2. How about the fundamentals of OKX's listing?

I looked into an article by the head of OKX's US business, @Roshan_OKX, in April of this year. They have officially opened registration for US users and will expand nationwide later this year.

The key concept is "Cryptocurrency Super App," offering deeper liquidity, lower transaction fees, and more advanced trading tools. It is worth mentioning that OKX's wallet will also be opened synchronously, which currently surpasses CEX and mainstream CEX in the US. The link is here:

If the future listing is successful, assessing the stock's fundamentals is essentially assessing the company's core profitability.

I looked into Coinbase's business revenue, which mainly comes from the following aspects (based on its recent financial reports):

1. Transaction Revenue — the largest share, accounting for about 70% of Coinbase's total revenue (even higher during bull markets)

2. Subscription and Service Revenue Staking, Custody, Earn, USDC Interest, etc. — around 20–35% (increasing year by year)

On the other hand, OKX's revenue is mainly distributed among the following core modules:

1. Transaction Fees (covering spot, margin, derivatives) — primary income;

2. Deposit and Withdrawal Fees (supporting multiple fiat currencies) — stable fiat channels revenue;

3. Staking/DeFi Revenue Share (Web3 services) — promising future;

However, OKX's current ace — the wallet — has not yet initiated swap fees. If they proceed to adjust the tastes of U.S. market participants and introduce a per-swap transaction fee model (currently, Rabby Wallet charges a 0.25% fee per swap), it could generate substantial and stable income. Additionally, with OKX's previous acquisition of regulatory licenses globally, a U.S. stock market listing can provide a positive boost to its fundamentals, significantly enhancing OKX's capitalized value and market trust in regions where it already holds licenses (amplifier).

Now it's clear to see the groundwork laid out by @star_okx, seeing through miles away. Indeed, it is quite an impressive strategy. If the stock market listing happens and the valuation is not too exaggerated, I have the intention to buy in.

3. Can OKX's Successful Listing Break the Ice for Other CEXs?

I believe the answer is: very likely! It can even be almost certain that it will play a "break-the-ice" and "opening-the-gates" role.

OKX's successful listing will mark the first substantial acknowledgment by the traditional financial regulatory system of a large CEX's legitimate business model and risk management capabilities. This is equivalent to sending a strong signal to the entire industry: "CeFi is not original sin; compliance can lead to listings." Compared to a native-to-the-U.S. CEX like Coinbase, OKX represents a grassroots CEX that grew up in the crypto world, led by the Chinese community, and is a more native player of the crypto era.

Regulatory bodies such as the U.S. SEC, CFTC, HK SFC, Singapore MAS, etc., will closely monitor OKX's listing structure, risk management framework, and disclosure methods. If OKX succeeds, especially for exchanges like Binance and Bybit, which have significant global volume but have not yet achieved public capitalization, it will serve as a blueprint. If OKX performs well after listing (e.g., high market cap, good liquidity, stable financial data), the secondary market will reassess the valuation of the CEX race. By then, investment banks will actively approach Binance, Bybit, and even Bitget to arrange a listing path. (Of course, compliance costs will be very high, and I don't think many CEXs are willing to accept this cost at the moment). Some hedge funds and pension funds will start investing in CeFi equity, promoting a closed-loop cycle of primary financing, listing exit, and remittance.

Summing up:

1. OKB may not necessarily benefit from OKX's U.S. listing, so investment needs to be cautious.

2. If OKX's U.S. listing is successful, its fundamental business in the U.S. market is competitive, especially in the wallet business. Coupled with its early overseas licensing layout, the stock price valuation should not be underestimated.

3. If OKX succeeds, it will become a "landmark event" in CeFi history—it will not immediately lead to Binance or Bybit listing, but it will pave the way for the market and regulators to seriously consider the "capital marketization potential of CeFi" for the first time.

The process of cryptocurrency regularization is accelerating, heralding a new "era of digital assets"!