Original Title: "Returning to $50,000, when will BTC break through its historical high?"

Original Source: Odaily Star Daily

Original Author: Fu Ruhao

Early this morning, BTC broke through 50,000 USDT, reaching a new high since December 2021.

欧易 OKX market display shows that in the past 5 days, BTC has risen from 43070 USDT to a highest of 50380 USDT. As of writing, BTC is currently trading at 50062 USDT with a 24-hour increase of 0.33%.

The prices of altcoins have also generally risen in the past 5 days. Among them, ETH rose from 2368 USDT to over 2686 USDT at one point, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been fluctuating in the range of 0.05-0.06. SOL's price rose from 96 USDT to 114 USDT, and ORDI's price also returned to above 70 USDT. Ethereum layer 2 projects also rose in sync, with OP and ARB leading the way.

Cryptocurrency-related listed companies are also affected by the upward trend, with a general increase of more than 20% in stock prices in the past week. Among them, the compliant cryptocurrency platform Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) rose by 3.75% today, temporarily reporting $147.31; the largest Bitcoin holding listed company MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) rose by 11.02% today, temporarily reporting $717.52, and the value of BTC held by MicroStrategy has exceeded $3.5 billion in profit.

Due to the overall upward trend in the market, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has surpassed 1.9 trillion US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of 3.35%. The enthusiasm of cryptocurrency users for trading has significantly increased, with today's panic and greed index at 79, indicating a higher level of greed compared to last week, reaching the level of extreme greed.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the entire network was $193 million, with long positions liquidated at $58.14 million and short positions liquidated at $135 million. In terms of currency, BTC liquidated $74.9089 million and ETH liquidated $40.6058 million. Currently, the nominal value of open positions for BTC options across the entire network is $13.621 billion, and the nominal value of open positions for ETH options is $7.786 billion.

Reason: Spot ETF Boost + US Election

After the approval of spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin once fell below $40,000, casting doubt on the effectiveness of ETF in the market. Although Grayscale has been reducing its holdings of Bitcoin, the other 8 spot ETFs have been increasing their holdings, with IBIT ETF under BlackRock increasing its holdings by 13,163.2914 BTC in the past week, an increase of 20.29%.

Currently, the total market value of Bitcoin spot ETF is about 32.3 billion yuan, with Grayscale accounting for over 60%, but BlackRock's trading volume and turnover rank first. According to unfolded data, the trading volume of US Bitcoin spot ETF accounts for 10-15% of the total trading volume of Bitcoin spot on centralized exchanges worldwide.

In addition, the upcoming US election may be one of the reasons for this round of increase.

The latest research from Coinbase shows that cryptocurrency users in California are expected to have a significant impact on the state's political direction in the 2024 election. It is reported that about 27% of adults in California (approximately 8.2 million people) own digital assets, representing a large and potentially decisive voting group in the election.

This study also found that the vast majority of people support policy initiatives that encourage disruptive technologies such as blockchain and digital assets, believing that they are crucial to the future of financial and social progress. It is expected that this sentiment will translate into political action, and cryptocurrency holders are likely to support candidates who advocate for the cryptocurrency industry and blockchain technology.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been unfriendly towards cryptocurrency, saw its leader Biden post a picture of a laser eye on the X platform. The laser eye is one of the symbols of the crypto world, which inevitably leads people to speculate whether this move is sending a related signal. On the other hand, Republican candidate Trump also promoted NFTs, expressing his recognition of the crypto world and even Web3.

Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high this year

Bitcoin price has returned to $50,000, re-entering the top ten global assets. What will be the future trend of Bitcoin?

First of all, the Fed's interest rate cut is one of the driving factors. Fed's Kashkari said that if the labor market remains strong, policy rates can be lowered quite slowly; it seems appropriate to cut interest rates 2-3 times this year.

From this, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, which will boost global markets and may bring more "New Money" to Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.

Secondly, Bitcoin will undergo a halving event in April this year. Every time Bitcoin goes through a halving cycle, the market price tends to rise, which seems to have become an unspoken consensus. During this period leading up to the halving, the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise.

In addition, the Bitcoin spot ETF continues to be supported, and the expected approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is approaching. The market may see a resurgence of the upward trend before the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

As Crypto Quant founder Ki Young Ju stated on social media, with the push of ETF fund inflows, Bitcoin could reach $112,000 this year.

In addition, grayscale indicates that although miners may sell Bitcoin to maintain their rising costs after the Bitcoin halving, 9 Bitcoin spot ETF products may serve as a hedge against miner selling pressure, and Bitcoin ETFs may significantly absorb selling pressure, potentially reshaping the market structure of Bitcoin by providing a stable new source of demand, which is beneficial to the price.

Finally, as the US presidential election approaches, the battle for votes between the Democratic and Republican parties is sure to attract the attention of cryptocurrency users, and it has already begun to show its potential.

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