After Bitcoin began a steady rise near $98,000 on June 22, BTC today broke through $1.17 trillion, setting a new all-time high.

Image Source: TradingView

Driven by a confluence of multiple macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, the momentum of this rally cannot be explained by a single event. From corporate buying frenzy, policy maneuvers, tech stock linkage, to changes in investor structure and evolving market sentiment, this Bitcoin surge is not only a surge in price but also a microcosm of a reassessment of the status of crypto assets.

Institutional Buying Frenzy Keeps Bitcoin Price Momentum Unstoppable

Institutional accumulation has been a core driver of this price rally, with ARK Invest's June "Bitcoin Monthly" report showing that the proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has risen to 74%, the highest level in 15 years. This indicator suggests that despite a decrease in short-term buyer activity, "diamond hands" continue to hodl firmly and accumulate continuously in a low-volatility range.

On July 9, Glassnode posted on social media that the Bitcoin RHODL ratio has started to rise and has reached the highest level of this cycle. This signal indicates a shift in market structure, with more wealth controlled by single-cycle holders, while short-term activity spanning 1 day to 3 months remains at low levels. Historically, such a reversal often heralds a change in market cycles and a cooling of speculative fervor.

The RHODL ratio is a Bitcoin on-chain metric used to measure the difference in Bitcoin holdings between short-term and long-term holders, thus analyzing market cycles and investor behavior.

Image Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accumulated over 700,000 BTC, accounting for approximately 3.33%. Bloomberg data shows that the ETF's annual management fee revenue has surpassed BlackRock's flagship product—the S&P 500 ETF (IVV), becoming a profitable example of traditional financial institutions entering the Bitcoin market.

Since July, a wave of "Bitcoin naKu" led by U.S.-listed companies is rapidly spreading, especially with pioneers in traditional industries such as hotels, real estate, and food. Mexican hotel and real estate operator Murano (NASDAQ: MRNO) announced the launch of a Bitcoin reserve strategy, signing a standby equity purchase agreement (SEPA) of up to $500 million and has already purchased 21 BTC. The company plans to increase asset liquidity and convert it into long-term crypto reserves through property sales and introducing Bitcoin payments. Japanese hotel chain operator Metaplanet increased its holdings twice in late June and early July, surpassing 2,200 BTC in total holdings, explicitly transitioning to a treasury-type company with BTC as its core reserve.

In addition to the hospitality industry, more diverse businesses are also restructuring their balance sheets with Bitcoin. The food and culture group DDC (NYSE: DDC), headquartered in the Cayman Islands and operating across China, Hong Kong, and the U.S., announced the repurchase of 230 bitcoins once again, incorporating them into their long-term strategic asset allocation. The U.S. medical technology company Semler Scientific, the Swedish quantitative trading firm Hilbert Group, also completed Bitcoin acquisitions or obtained financing during the same period. Furthermore, chip and Web3 infrastructure manufacturer Nano Labs, traditional manufacturer Addentax Group in Shenzhen, travel technology company Webus, and long-standing crypto custody platform Bakkt, have also announced or advanced reserve strategies centered around Bitcoin, BNB, XRP, and other digital assets, ranging from millions to billions of dollars.

These companies, coming from various backgrounds and spanning a wide range of industries, have converged under the trend of Bitcoin assetization—collectively viewing digital assets as a key lever for liquidity management, inflation hedging, and capital appreciation. This affirms that the trend of Bitcoin as an "enterprise-grade reserve asset" is accelerating from the tech finance circle to a broader range of the real economy.

The logic behind this is not hard to understand. Against the backdrop of cooling global inflation expectations and the approaching end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, some corporate and institutional investors are reassessing their asset allocation models, once again emphasizing the value of Bitcoin. Particularly at a time when traditional safe-haven instruments—such as gold and long-term U.S. bonds—no longer offer attractive yields, Bitcoin, with its high liquidity and global pricing mechanism, is provided with more imaginative space beyond its digital gold function.

The current rise in Bitcoin is closely related to the simultaneous strong performance of the U.S. tech stock sector. AI and semiconductor companies led by NVIDIA are driving the Nasdaq index to new highs, indirectly reinforcing the market's risk appetite. Yesterday, NVIDIA briefly surpassed a $4 trillion market cap, bringing a strong spillover effect to the stock market. In this context, Bitcoin and tech stocks are exhibiting a highly positive correlation, further strengthening their role as risk assets.

Image Source: Golden Data

This interconnection is not incidental but rather a result of changes in investor structure. In recent years, traditional stock investors have been migrating to the crypto market, projecting their risk appetite and growth expectations onto Bitcoin through ETFs, futures, and compliant exchanges. Stocks closely related to Bitcoin, such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy (MSTR), have also seen significant price increases recently, indicating that investors are placing Bitcoin on par with the tech sector as a "future-driven asset."

It is worth noting that policy expectations have also played a key role in managing market expectations. While the possibility of the U.S. government establishing a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" has significantly decreased in prediction markets, the ongoing public discourse on the topic continues to have a psychological impact on investors. With the 2025 "Crypto Week" set to take place in Washington, there is a widespread expectation in the market that crypto assets will receive more positive guidance within the regulatory framework, especially on issues such as Bitcoin being included in corporate financial statements, state government purchase plans, etc. The policy's gray area is gradually being clarified.

Furthermore, from on-chain data observation, the Bitcoin market's fund structure is showing a more institutionalized characteristic. According to Coinglass data, around $340 million worth of short positions were liquidated in the Bitcoin market within just four hours around the all-time high, a phenomenon that occurred multiple times during the 2021 bull market, indicating that a significant amount of high-leverage speculative positions were quickly liquidated in a strong uptrend, leading to a technical short squeeze. Although the price movement caused by such leverage liquidations may have short-term characteristics, the market signal it releases is very clear: weakening of bearish forces and establishment of an uptrend.

At the same time, although overall liquidity has not fully recovered to the peak levels of 2021, on-chain indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) show that the current market is still in a structural upward channel. ARK's report points out that despite a cooling down of fund flows compared to the beginning of the second quarter, long-term capital is still entering the market at a steady pace.

Policy Support as Crypto Week Approaches

Not only has the capital market contributed to the boost in Bitcoin price, but U.S. policy will also see the arrival of Crypto Week. On July 4, White House Cryptocurrency and AI Czar, the "Crypto Tsar" David Sacks, tweeted that the week of July 14 will be Cryptocurrency Week in the House of Representatives: the "GENIUS Bill" will be sent to the President. The "CLARITY Bill" (U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) will also be sent to the Senate.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the strength of the U.S. dollar should have suppressed crypto assets, but Bitcoin has shown significant countercyclical resilience. The Federal Reserve's "Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index" continues to rise, challenging the mainstream logic of "dollar devaluation driving Bitcoin's rise." However, Bitcoin has still seen upward movement during this period, indicating that its trend is gradually breaking away from reliance on a single macro factor, displaying a multi-factor-driven characteristic. This trend may suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a "narrative asset" to a "fundamental asset."

It is worth mentioning that although the inflation rate is gradually easing, the traditional investor perception of Bitcoin as an "inflation hedge" is weakening, but the return of risk appetite due to expectations of a Federal Fund rate cut is becoming a real driving force for a new round of growth. In traditional markets, tech stocks, growth assets, and startup equity have all shown strong performance, and Bitcoin naturally benefits from this trend.

The softness in the real estate market has indirectly driven a preference for liquidity assets by investors. ARK pointed out in a report that the current U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant deviation between expectations and transactions, with homeowners' psychological expectations being too high while actual transaction volume continues to decline. The illiquidity under this "price rigidity" has led some funds that were originally allocated to real estate to seek more price-flexible assets. Bitcoin's 24/7 trading and cross-border pricing mechanism have made it the preferred destination for such funds.

Overall, the recent Bitcoin price breakthrough to a new all-time high is a product of multiple intertwined factors. It has benefited from macro trends such as the surge in tech stocks, loose liquidity, and corporate asset reallocation, while also reflecting Bitcoin's own structural advantages of "institutional neutrality, fixed supply, and strong liquidity." In this complex structure, the market trend can no longer be explained by a single narrative framework but requires a comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions such as fund structure, policy expectations, and investor behavior.

Looking ahead, although there is a short-term risk of price correction, especially in the context of a lack of new buying support after short liquidation, the market may enter a period of technical consolidation. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, with trends such as corporate adoption becoming mainstream, increasing clarity in crypto regulation, and a warming sentiment towards risk assets, Bitcoin is still expected to usher in a new uptrend in the second half of 2025. Its position as a global digital store of value will become more solidified.

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