Original author: River

On October 16th, Bitcoin experienced a huge surge, breaking through the previous high point of the "8.18" crash and starting a new round of upward cycle. It rose from 27,000 USDT all the way to a peak of 44,000 USDT, with a maximum cumulative increase of over 60%.

Meanwhile, a mysterious on-chain address (0x1dbbbc3fdb2c4fabd28fd9b84ed99ceb84bfbec5) has been gradually acquiring 1.81 billion USDT from Tether's minting since October 20th, and transferring them to compliant exchanges such as Kraken, Coinbase, and OKX. The timing of the operation coincides perfectly with the current bullish trend, leading many to believe that it is one of the "potential engines" driving this round of bull market.

So, what is the specific purchase situation and trading pattern of this mysterious address? Which organization may be behind it, and what kind of logic is hidden? This article aims to use on-chain data analysis tools such as OKLink (Chain Eye) and Arkham to conduct in-depth exploration of the address.

50 Days, 1.76 Billion USDT

First of all, according to the data displayed on the OKLink browser by Ouke Cloud Chain, the initial handling fee for this address came from 0.497 ETH transferred from the Kraken deposit address on October 20, 2023 at 23:28:23.

According to the OKLink chain's eye data statistics, 22 minutes after the transaction fee was transferred to the mysterious address, the original Kraken deposit address called the Tether USDT minting contract and transferred 20 USDT to the mysterious address for the first time.

In theory, the small-scale minting of 20 USDT should be for the purpose of conducting the first USDT transfer test, ensuring that the mysterious address is available for subsequent USDT transfers.

Later, from October 20th to December 9th, the mysterious address accumulated 38 transfers of a total of 1.76 billion USDT from Tether, and transferred them multiple times to centralized exchanges such as Kraken, Coinbase, OKX, and Huobi, with a total of 298 transfers.

According to the "Direct Transaction Entity Ranking" on OKLink's chain eye statistics, Kraken ranks first with 51 transactions, followed by OKX (25 transactions) and Huobi (2 transactions).

Combining with the supplementary data from Arkham, Coinbase ranks first in terms of deposit amount:

l The mysterious address has deposited approximately $1.19 billion to Coinbase, accounting for nearly 70% of the total amount.

l The mysterious address has deposited a total of 377 million US dollars to Kraken, accounting for about 20%.

The mysterious address has deposited a total of 101 million US dollars into OKX, accounting for about 6%.

Trading Patterns Behind Transaction Information

Next, we will combine OKLink's on-chain explorer and Arkham to analyze the hidden information behind the transaction data of this address.

Close to North American work schedule, focus on weekdays

OKLink's "24-hour address transaction statistics chart" on the chain's Eye of Heaven shows that the preferred trading time for this mysterious address is from 21:00 to 5:00 Beijing time, with the most concentration between 22:00 and 1:00.

This also coincides perfectly with the trading hours of the US market - from early November to early March, when daylight saving time is in effect, the trading hours of US stocks are from 22:30 to 5:00 Beijing time.

From this perspective, the mysterious address is very likely a trading institution that adopts the trading habits of the North American market.

At the same time, if we look at the statistics based on North American coordinates, we will find that from a date perspective, all transactions are concentrated on weekdays from Monday to Friday, which further confirms the feasibility of this hypothesis:

Total of 347 transactions, with only 21 transactions on Saturday and Sunday, and a high of 326 transactions from Monday to Friday (the transactions on Saturday and Sunday may also be due to the time difference between Friday night and Monday morning).

同期应以买入 BTC 为主 

During this period, buying BTC should be the main focus. 

During the period from October 20th to December 9th, the address accumulated 1.76 billion BTC transferred to the exchange through USDT, which perfectly coincided with the time of market growth - during the same period, the BTC price rose from 27,000 USDT to a peak of 44,000 USDT.

Whenever this mysterious address frequently transfers funds to exchanges, BTC will experience a significant surge in the following days:

l For example, from November 7th to 8th, the mysterious address transferred a total of 30 USDT to the exchange. Subsequently, BTC rose for 4 consecutive days, from 35,000 USDT to 37,300 USDT.

l For example, from November 28th to December 1st, the mysterious address transferred a total of 55 USDT to the exchange. Subsequently, BTC rose for 5 consecutive days, from 37700 USDT to 44000 USDT.

However, at the same time, ETH is relatively weak, with the exchange rate of ETH/BTC fluctuating around 0.051-0.055.

Overall, the mysterious address's actions and the market (especially) rising timing were perfectly matched, and after the action stopped on December 9th, the market experienced a big drop on December 11th, followed by high-level fluctuations until now.

Comparatively speaking, this mysterious address can be basically determined as one of the main leaders of the spot end of this round of market. Whenever it is transferred to an active exchange, the market price rises, and when it is dormant, the price fluctuates or falls.

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