Original Title: "Searching for Spring in the Snow, Burning the Lamp to Continue the Day | WTR 10.30"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

This week review

This week, from October 23rd to October 30th, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was near $35280, and the lowest was near $29883, with a fluctuation range of about 18.6%. Observing the distribution of chips, there were a large number of chips traded around 33634, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 33000-37000 approximately 1.23 million pieces; 2. 28000~32000 approximately 2.35 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 29,000 to 31,000 in the short term is 72%.

• The probability of not breaking through 38,000-40,000 in the short term is 63%.

Important News

Economic News

1. In September, the PCE price index increased by 3.4% on a yearly basis, which is in line with the expected value of 3.40% and lower than the previous value of 3.50%.

2. In September, the core PCE price index year-on-year increased by 3.7%, which is in line with the expected value of 3.70% and lower than the previous value of 3.90%. It hit a new low since May 2021.

3. The core PCE price index for the third quarter was 2.4%, lower than the expected value of 2.50% and lower than the previous value of 3.70%.

4. The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is 4.9%, higher than the expected value of 4.3% and higher than the previous value of 2.10%.

5. In the third quarter, GDP reached a new high since the fourth quarter of 2021, while the PCE core price index reached a new low since the first quarter of 2021. 6. The market predicts a 97% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged during the Federal Reserve's meeting from October 30th to November 1st.

7. The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged. ECB President Lagarde said: The decision to maintain interest rates unchanged this time was unanimously agreed upon. Currently, most long-term inflation expectations are around 2%.

8. Many investors believe that the interest rates of the European Central Bank have reached their peak and the possibility of gradually shifting towards dovishness is increasing.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. Last week, the total trading volume of the head exchanges reached the highest level in nearly two months, with a growth rate of over 45%.

2. Blackrock iShares Bitcoin ETF has been listed on DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation), making it the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) to achieve this milestone.

3. dYdX Chain v1.0 has been officially released.

4. FTX is considering restarting its exchange and will make a decision on three quotes in mid-December.

5. Cryptocurrency exchange HKVAEX plans to apply for a license in Hong Kong. It is said that the company is backed by Binance.

6. Anthony Rousseau said that people have started pricing in the positive outcome of the pending approval of a spot BTC ETF.

7. If the spot ETF is approved this year, the price may continue to rise while the market awaits the results, and may establish a partial top after the news is announced.

8. Cryptogambling-tv report, the search term "buy BTC" on Google has surged 826% in search volume in the UK in the past 7 days, and US users searching "should I buy BTC now?" has increased by over 250%; 9. The search term "is now a good time to buy BTC?" has grown globally by 110% last week. "Grayscale BTC ETF" has grown by 250%.

9. Search term "Is now a good time to buy BTC?" saw a global increase of 110% last week. "Grayscale BTC ETF" saw an increase of 250%.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of a certain direction and the occurrence of a certain event under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• Option implied volatility• New addresses and active addresses have been added.

• Ice Sugar Orange Exchange Net Leader

(Risk coefficient of derivative products)

After a large number of short positions were closed last week, the current risk coefficient has continued to remain in the danger zone. From the perspective of the risk coefficient alone, the risk of derivative trading may increase in the future. At the same time, considering the combination of the risk coefficient and fomo sentiment, the price may oscillate or experience a slight pullback, before taking in a certain amount of long liquidity and then shorting again.

(The option intention-to-trade ratio in the figure below)

The trading volume of options remained flat compared to last week, and the proportion of bearish options is at a median level.

(Trading volume of derivative products as shown below)

The trading volume of derivative products has returned to a low level after the price increase, indicating that the fluctuation and reversal are not far away.

(The implied volatility of options in the following figure)

The rise in prices has further increased the implied volatility of options.

Emotional state rating: leaning towards FOMO.

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the following figure)

Positive emotions have triggered a certain level of market FOMO greed, but it is still not enough. The current price is 34K, and the average cost of short-term holders is approximately 28K. The on-chain chip profit percentage is 89%. If there is no significant change in the panic of losses, it is advisable to be cautious about shorting.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

(New addresses and active addresses)

The number of newly active addresses on the chain is currently at a median level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: overall in a state of small inflow, with low selling pressure.

(Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown below)

After the price increase, there has been a small amount of inflow. Overall, the spot selling pressure on the exchange is relatively low.

(The head of E-Too Exchange is shown in the following figure)

There has been a small amount of outflow from ETC recently.

(High weight pressure as shown below)

Currently there is no high-weight pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, with a small amount of stablecoin purchasing power lost.

(Global purchasing power status in the following figure)

The purchasing power of Asia, compared to last week, continues to rebound, and the sustained rebound of the high-weighted purchasing power in the Americas is a positive signal.

What's particularly unusual is that the purchasing power in Europe is currently flowing into negative territory.

2. There are slight signs of increase in stablecoins, but the trend is not too obvious.

3. There are more short-term participants, which may improve liquidity in the near term;

4. There are sellers dumping, which may cause price instability in the near future.

The current situation in the market is extremely challenging and tests the pressure-bearing capacity of the market. There are signs of selling pressure, and the market risk may be relieved after the selling pressure subsides.

On-chain Short-term Observation:

1. The wind risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the wind risk is increasing.

2. Market sentiment rating: leaning towards fomo.

4. The global purchasing power has rebounded significantly, stabilizing compared to the minor loss of purchasing power.

• Market tone: The overall market sentiment remains positive. In the past two weeks, the market has been influenced by news. Currently, due to the high proportion of short-term profit chips and the impact of derivative products and profit chips, short-term expectations are more affected.

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