Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From September 11th to September 18th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was near $26888, and the lowest was close to $24901, with a fluctuation range of about 7.98%. Observing the distribution of chips, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 26000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000-31000, approximately 3.82 million pieces.

2. 20000~25000 is about 1.99 million coins.

• The probability of not breaking below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 82%.

• The probability of not breaking through 28,000-30,000 in the short term is 60%.

Important News

Economic News

1. August CPI annual rate is 3.7%, higher than the expected value of 3.60% and higher than the previous value of 3.20%.

2. In August, the core CPI annual rate was 4.3%, in line with expectations at 4.30%, lower than the previous value of 4.70%.

3. In August, the US CPI slightly rebounded, with an overall increase of 3.7%, higher than the previous value of 3.2%. The core CPI rose by 0.3%, accelerating for the first time in six months, with an annual rate of 4.3%.

4. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 220,000, which was lower than the expected value of 225,000 and higher than the previous value of 216,000.

5. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, up from the previous rate of 4.25% and in line with expectations.

6. Next Thursday at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting to decide whether to raise interest rates in September.

7. 46 economists predict that interest rates will remain unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, but the option to raise interest rates again within the year will be retained, and they believe that the time to lower interest rates will be May next year.

8. Deutsche Bank economists said: This is largely a signal of rhetoric and risk management. If they announce the end of the tightening cycle, it may lead to a significant relaxation of the financial situation, which means higher stock prices or lower bond yields, stimulating spending and borrowing, and triggering more accounts.

9. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that most potential inflation indicators have started to decline, and the ECB believes that the interest rate level has reached a restrictive level.

10. The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is next Wednesday, with a 97% chance of no change in rates. Traders believe there is a 63.7% chance the Fed will not take action in November and a 59.9% chance they will not take action in December.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. JPMorgan: Bitcoin mining cost drops to $18,000, unfavorable for price performance.

2. The total trading volume of the head exchange fell by more than 30% last week, reaching a new low for this year.

3. PayPal launches cryptocurrency cash-out service.

4. Asset management giant Franklin Templeton joins the competition for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

5. FTX discloses detailed composition of assets worth approximately 7 billion US dollars, as well as other risky investments, real estate, and securities. The US court approves FTX's sale of its holdings in cryptocurrency.

6. EIP7514 will be included in the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, slowing down the increase of $ETH staking rate.

7. Founder of Bn, CzToken, stated at the 2049 conference that the current adoption rate of the encryption industry is very close to 5% to 10%, and is on the edge of exponential growth.

(The market value change rate and short-term participants have been implemented as shown in the figure below.)

This model explores the relationship between short-term participants and market value growth, and observes whether the market is in an incremental, decremental, or stock environment.

Yellow line: Market capitalization achieved.Blue line: Short-term participants.Purple area: realized market value change rate.

The purchasing power differential is still showing a slight increase within the exchange, but the overall stablecoin quantity remains in a stock band state, indicating a possible lack of effective increments within the market.

(Sales-side risk ratio)

The selling pressure in the market has significantly reduced, which may lead to a decrease in the magnitude of adjustments based on similar situations.

Short-term Observation

• Derivative risk coefficient

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivative trading volume• Option implied volatility

• New addresses and active addresses added.

• Ice Sugar Orange Exchange Net Leader

• Global purchasing power status

Derivative Rating: The risk factor is in the neutral zone, with moderate risk.

(Derivative Risk Factor)

The current risk coefficient has risen to the upper edge of the neutral zone, which brings some downward space, reflected in the price as a rebound space. The current market is still greatly affected by derivatives, and this week we will still focus on the rapid upward or downward trend of the risk coefficient.

The trading volume of options has decreased significantly, and the ratio of put options has increased significantly compared to last week, currently at a medium to high level.

The trading volume of derivatives has not fluctuated much and remains at a low level, indicating that many derivative traders are currently in a wait-and-see state. However, the low level often predicts... (the rest of the content is cut off)

Indicates the fluctuations that may occur due to rapid upward movement.

Looking at the timeline, the implied volatility of options has gradually deviated from the previous trend of continuous decline, and the activity of option traders has increased.

Emotional State Rating: Neutral

(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount)

The volatility that appeared last week did not cause an increase in loss transfer volume, indicating a low willingness to sell at current price levels. Profit transfer volume has increased to a certain extent, and market sentiment represented by profit transfer volume will continue to be monitored this week.

(New Address and Active Address in the following image)

Last week it was mentioned that the number of new active addresses on the chain suddenly increased significantly, which may indicate that a certain amount of volatility is about to come. This week, the number of new active addresses continues to increase significantly, and this unusual increase often indicates that there may still be a certain amount of volatility in the future.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall presenting an outflow state, with relatively low selling pressure.

(Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange)

There is a willingness to sell around the price range of 30000-32000.

This Week's Summary:

1. Recently, the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repurchase tool fell below $1.5 trillion, a decrease of $1.1 trillion from last year's high point, and the willingness of capital inflows remained low.

2. The recent rise in oil prices may put some pressure on the decline of inflation and the decisions of the Federal Reserve.

3. Pay attention, November may be the last time for interest rate hikes.

Facing the possibility of the last interest rate hike in November or the end of the year, it is difficult to determine the specific situation.

The European Central Bank has hinted that the interest rate hike cycle may come to an end, and global attention has shifted to the United States.

No matter what, when the interest rate hike ends, it is the time when the tight mood of capital is close to dissipating. And when the expectation of the biggest negative for two years is about to dissipate, the market's sentiment of finding the bottom begins to fade, the worry mood begins to decrease, and certainty begins to increase.

It is also recommended that participants do not focus too much on finding the bottom in the later stage.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. High-quality throwing pressure drops to the safe range (low throwing pressure range);

2. More on-chain chips are being created and growing significantly;

3. Small and medium-sized participants have slowed down their selling pressure on the exchange, while large participants have shown hoarding behavior, but overall progress is slow.

• Market tone: The anxious and pessimistic sentiment expectations are starting to diminish or shift towards relatively positive conditions.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. Short-term participants have slowed down their pace, and there has been a slight increase in market value growth.

2. Slight increase in purchasing power, but overall purchasing power still remains at a low level.

3. The seller's wind risk has dropped to a low point.

• Market Tone: Adjustment

2. The probability of fluctuations in the generation of active addresses increases when compared to those at a high level.

4. The net position of the exchange as a whole is in an outflow state, with relatively low selling pressure.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at the 25000 price level and a willingness to sell at the 30000 price level.

7. The probability of not breaking below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 82%.

• Market Tone:

The market sentiment is neutral. In the short term, there has been some improvement compared to the previous few weeks, with some positive signals but not many. It still tends to be influenced by news or derivative markets, and we continue to pay attention to unrealized losses.

Strategy Recommendation:

Risk Warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional views on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

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