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Friend.Tech's Game Theory - WAGMI or Ponzi Scheme?

Read this article in 15 Minutes

This could be a great investment (if you play it right), but you may also truly gain a lot of value from it beyond speculation on keys and airdrops.

Original author: AYLO

Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

I believe you have all heard of Friend.Tech, which is a platform that combines social media and cryptocurrency:

- Users can buy, sell, and trade "Keys" that are tied to specific X (Twitter) accounts. Essentially, these Keys represent ownership shares in the platform's users.

- The price of Key increases as the Bonding Curve rises. When the price of Key reaches 1 ETH, there are usually around 100 people in a room.

- Having a Key allows access to the user's private chat room within the application.

- Creators can earn revenue from the buying and selling tax of each Key transaction (5% goes to the platform, 5% goes to the creator).

- This application can be used on mobile phones and utilizes a unique "progressive web application" technology to bypass the app store.

- Built on the BASE chain on Coinbase.

At first glance, this appears to be just another speculative application (remember Bitclout?), but is it really? Over the past few weeks, as I thoroughly tested the platform, I have been pondering this question.

Today I want to discuss my findings and provide my unique perspective as an early user of a platform with a Twitter fan base. I have developed my own strategy for FT and was one of the first to adopt a new approach to drive growth, which I will discuss later.

My overall view is: this could be a good investment (if you play it right), but you may also truly gain a lot of value from it beyond speculation on Keys and airdrops.

Data Overview

Viewing the on-chain metrics of Friend.Tech can tell a seemingly very positive story.

First of all, FT is undoubtedly the number one application on BASE. This can be seen from the cost percentage generated by FT on the BASE chain, which averages about 20%. It is amazing that an application generates 20% of the total cost. Even more shocking is that BASE is now the leading Optimistic rollup and ranks second among all Layer 2 solutions, which further highlights the fact that FT occupies so much activity on the chain.

The importance of FT to the BASE chain can also be seen from its active user share, which is currently about 10% on average.

This level of activity has resulted in the platform distributing over 8 million US dollars to users in just over a month's time. For a beta application, this is a quite impressive performance.

The launch of its own chain by Coinbase is a significant move that cannot be underestimated. As interest in cryptocurrency rises once again, Coinbase will lead the public into their new decentralized home. It can be imagined that as BASE becomes more popular, its main applications will also become more popular.

If we take a look at the daily active users, we can see a steady increase over the past two weeks. It's important to note that this activity only tracks users who are actively trading, and does not include users who hold Key or participate in group chats, so the actual numbers may be much higher.

The user stickiness chart is also highly optimistic, showing that users repeatedly use the platform.

Now let's take a look at TVL, which has been showing a growth trend.

As of the time of posting, its revenue in the past 24 hours has also exceeded that of Ethereum.

So what do these statistics tell us?

People are steadily returning to the application, staying for a long time, and keeping ETH on the platform. For a new social application, these are very good user retention rates and indicate strong momentum for its future development.

The driving force behind this retention is a powerful flywheel.

We have seen this situation before in DeFi applications, where mining players come in to earn profits and then leave. However, the large number of returning users for FT indicates that something different has happened.

If a platform does not have real utility, then you tend to see its TVL decrease and the death spiral begin. FT exhibits stickiness. FT indicates that it may really have enough utility to sustain its existence for a period of time.

FT Analysis and Opinion

One thing I like about this application is that it doesn't compete with popular social apps like X, IG, and TikTok. It has its own niche area, which is small and private, exclusive chat rooms. Anyone can create a small community that truly values becoming a member of that chat room.

This is the Bonding Curve that people missed. This means that the total number of people in the room is actually limited to a small group of people. This is a feature, not a bug.

For me personally, being able to share some thoughts, trades, and information that I wouldn't publicly disclose in front of the masses, I really feel it's meaningful. I really enjoy the atmosphere of chat rooms with many others, and truly profit by obtaining information that cannot be found elsewhere.

The time I spent on FT was very happy, but I want to say that I did not turn a blind eye to the problems I saw.

Earn Airdrops

Friend.Tech recently announced its point allocation system. People have found some ways to accumulate points:

- Through referral links;

- Holding amount;

- Trading volume (to a lesser extent).

Your total points will be announced every Friday.

How much are these points worth? Currently, we can only speculate. We do not know the exchange rate for redeeming points for tokens, the distribution ratio of total supply in airdrops, or the market conditions at the time of token issuance, making it difficult to give an exact monetary value for the points.

Some people have provided rough numbers and made some guesses about the value of airdrops based on different scenarios:

As you can see, the conservative estimate is to value each token at around $0.5. If you invest in someone who enjoys its group chat and benefits from it, it's not bad.

Ecological System

Another great advantage of FT is the tool ecosystem built for the service community. I have selected some of them to help you get started exploring.

DeFi

PerpsTech

A perpetual contract DEX designed specifically for FT. Use perpetual contracts to long or short KOL.

HyperLiquid

Hyperliquid provides a way to speculate on the overall FT ecosystem through trading TVL-based perpetual contracts. This is a good way to obtain risk exposure before FT releases its tokens.

DerpDEX's ERC20 Wrapper

DerpDEX has created a wrapper that can convert FT Key into an ERC20 token that can be freely traded, allowing you to use Key outside of the FT ecosystem in any way you want.

Tools

FriendTech Gems

FriendTech.info

A great place to view top-level accounts. My favorite feature is the "Recently Joined" section, where you can try to discover people before they explode.

FriendMex

This is your go-to front-end, suitable for all advanced users.

Friendex by Spotonchain

frentech.octav

Another great analytics platform that displays all statistical data related to any FT account. The founder of FT now has a market value of 5.7 million US dollars, and purchasing his Key requires 15,000 US dollars.

Unibot

Since sniper robots have entered the arena, you should consider trying one to stay competitive.

Meowl

If you don't like Telegram, Meowl has recently added an FT option in its Discord bot.

I understand the current skepticism towards Friend.Tech, but all you need to do is use your imagination and envision what it could become. Most applications in this field have no future, and FT may be no exception, but it has the potential to become a vehicle for attracting users who are not interested in cryptocurrency.