Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From September 4th to September 11th this week, the highest price of Bingtang orange was near $26445, and the lowest was close to $25372, with a fluctuation range of about 4.23%. Observing the distribution of chips, there were a large number of chips traded around 25397, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000-31000, approximately 3.71 million pieces.

2. 20000~25000 is approximately 2.12 million coins.

• The probability of not breaking below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 89%.

• The probability of not breaking through 28,000-30,000 in the short term is 63%.

Important News

Economic News

1. August CP1 annual expected value is 3.6%, previous value is 3.2%, monthly expected value is 0.5%, previous value is 0.2%.

2. The expected value of the core CPI in August is 4.3%, with a previous value of 4.7%.

3. The number of initial jobless claims for the current week was 216,000, lower than the expected value of 234,000 and lower than the previous value of 228,000.

4. William Williams, a member of the Federal Reserve, said that the Fed needs to "cautiously" adjust its policies, which must be done gradually. The question facing them is whether monetary policy needs to become restrictive.

5. Gao Sheng believes that the Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady in September will increase the obstacles to resuming interest rate hikes in the future.

6. The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, stating that the US economy grew moderately from July to August, with restrained job growth and an overall slowdown in the rate of price increases, but strong consumer spending.

a. The pressure of the general ledger has been alleviated, and the core personal consumption expenditure index favored by the Federal Reserve has risen for the second consecutive month in July, up 0.2%, which is lower than the level of 0.3% earlier this year.

b. Federal Reserve members are now acting more cautiously, with many members indicating that they may choose to pause rate hikes at this month's meeting.

7. The Fed's Beige Book was relatively mild, with the fewest mentions of "inflation" since January 2022 and the highest mentions of "economic recession" since 2018, indicating that policymakers are transitioning away from this round of policy tightening.

8. UBS said: The decline in corporate profits has ended, and the S&P 500 will rise to 4,700 points in June next year.

9. Gao Sheng believes that the S&P 500 index is expected to reach 4700 points by the end of this year.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. Visa is expanding its $USDC settlement functionality to Solana.

2. Singapore credit card issuing agency DCS Center has launched a payment token called DUS.

3. Native $USDC is now available on Layer2 network OP Mainnet and Base.

4. Grayscale urges the US SEC to approve the conversion of GBTC to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

5. MetaMask allows users to exchange cryptocurrencies for fiat currencies.

6. Ark Invest and 21Shares apply to launch the first spot Ethereum ETF.

7. ConsenSys will launch a decentralized version of Infura this year.

8. Binance NFT will stop The Sandbox NFT staking plan on September 26th and will no longer support the Polygon network.

(High-quality forging under the figure below)

The intensity of market selling pressure has decreased significantly compared to several months ago.

(Global purchasing power status)

One is the end of 2022;

One is now.

Most of the days have gone through a long period of depression.

Mid-term exploration

• Network sentiment positivity

• Short-term profit percentage compound model

The liquidity is gradually slowing down, and the market may be in a state of repair.

There may be a slight trend towards overall improvement.

From the perspective of the whale situation, the overall situation is still in a state of slight accumulation.

Maybe they are in a wait-and-see mood and have not actively participated in the current market.

Under the current circumstances, it is still necessary to closely follow up on observations of this large group.

From the perspective of short-term participant attrition, the market lacks new blood.

At the same time, it also means that the liquidity in the market is still in a reduced state, which may weaken the magnitude of price fluctuations.

The accumulative group is still switching between hesitation and growth, and the market may switch back and forth between a wait-and-see and repair tone.

• Derivative trading volume• New addresses and active addresses added.• High weight throw pressure• Off-chain exchange data

(Derivative Risk Factor)

(See Figure: Option Intention Transaction Ratio)

The trading volume of options has increased significantly, and the proportion of put options has slightly increased compared to last week, remaining at a moderate level.

(Trading volume of derivative products)

The trading volume of derivatives has not fluctuated much and remains at a low level. Many derivatives traders are in a wait-and-see state.

(See Figure: Implied Volatility of Options)

The implied volatility of options has increased, and the activity of option traders has also increased.

Emotional state rating: Neutral with a tendency towards indifference

(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount)

(Net Head of E-Tower Exchange)

(High weight suppression in the figure below)

Currently there is no high-weight pressure.

Net outflow of USDC from exchanges by small traders.

(Net Head of USDT Exchange as shown below)

Net inflow of USDT trading platform accumulates.

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to buy at the price range of 23500, 24500, and 25000.

(Binance off-chain data as shown below)

(Bitfinex off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to purchase at the price range near 24200.

Summary of News:

1. From the recent Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve, the overall tone is relatively mild. This indicates that policymakers are shifting the direction of policy towards ending the tightening cycle.

2. Recently, many institutions including Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs have changed their views on the recession, believing that the corporate decline may be nearing its end and a new cycle may be on the horizon.

Currently, it appears that the current monetary policy pace is transitioning from tightening to a buffering stage of easing.

Similarly, multiple members of the Federal Reserve have also released cautious statements from various perspectives.

Medium-term:

• Market Tone:

The market selling pressure and purchasing power are both declining, and there may be a period of sluggishness in the future. We need to wait for some opportunities to break through the critical point.

1. The liquidity within the market is gradually decreasing.

3. The reduction of new capital and the accumulation-oriented group is still hesitating.

• Market tone:

The market is walking out of a phase of relatively poor performance, but the overall atmosphere is cautious and there is a lack of new capital.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. Wind risk coefficient is in the safe zone, and wind risk is moderate.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral with a slight tendency towards indifference.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at the 25000 price level and a willingness to sell at the 30000 price level.

7. The probability of not breaking below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 89%.

The probability of not breaking through 28,000 to 30,000 in the short term is 63%.

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