Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

This week, from August 14th to August 21st, the highest price of Bingtang orange was near $29695, and the lowest was close to $25166, with a fluctuation range of about 15.25%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 26,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000-31000, approximately 4.12 million pieces.

2. 20000~25000 is approximately 1.62 million coins.

• The probability of not breaking below 20,000-22,000 in the short term is 87%.

• The probability of not breaking through 28,000-30,000 in the short term is 69%.

Important News

Economic News

1. "Hawk King" Brad of the Federal Reserve left the Federal Reserve on August 14th.

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on August 25th.

3. According to foreign media reports, on August 17th (Thursday) local time, Evergrande Group applied for creditor protection to the US bankruptcy court located in Manhattan.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. OpenSea will stop supporting Binance Smart Chain. Users will not be able to list BSC NFTs.

2. Grayscale is recruiting for its ETF team.

3. OpenSea will stop supporting Binance Smart Chain. Users will not be able to list new BSC NFTs.

4. According to Bloomberg, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to allow the first batch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Ether futures to be traded on exchanges.

5. Ethereum has launched Devnet 8, the first test network that includes all EIPs for the Constantinople upgrade.

6. Jacobi Asset Management, headquartered in London, announced on August 15th that it will list the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Euronext Amsterdam.

7. PayPal USD(PYUSD) has been listed on Kraken and will begin trading on August 21st.

8. Coinbase has been approved to offer cryptocurrency futures trading to eligible US clients.

9. PayPal will launch a cryptocurrency center for specific users, allowing them to sell and purchase cryptocurrencies;

10. Coinbase's international trading platform, Coinbase International, achieved a record high trading volume of $287 million on August 18th.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of a certain direction and the occurrence of a certain event under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• On-chain spot selling pressure

This may be the leading derivative indicator in the encryption market.

• Red represents rolling empty.

• Green represents a lot of explosions.

For the convenience of clear observation, the display of the upper and lower parts has been adjusted, with "empty" displayed on the upper part and "burst" displayed on the lower part.

More suitable for short-term market observation and analysis.

With some simple position control and other entry and exit signals, it may be a good stop-loss and buy signal strategy.

This optimization focuses on increasing the granularity of display, which allows for a more comprehensive and sensitive observation of whether the market has been affected by short selling and long buying.

Of course, everything is still in the experimental stage, which does not represent the final completed version.

Mid-term exploration

• Long-term market strength change rate curve

• Changes in the strength and weakness of market accumulation status within 6 months.

(Long-term market strength change rate curve as shown in the figure below)

1. The color gradient on the BTC price line represents the change rate of the composite score, where blue represents negative change (or decrease) and red represents positive change (or increase).

2. When the line is dark blue, it indicates that the combined score is rapidly decreasing during that period. Conversely, the deep red section represents a rapid increase in the combined score.

3. There seems to be a correlation between the rate of change of the composite score and the trend of BTC price at certain points on the chart. For example, when ROC shows deep red (indicating rapid increase), BTC price may also be on an upward trend. Similarly, when ROC is blue, BTC price may be falling. However, this correlation does not always exist throughout the year, indicating that BTC price is also influenced by other external factors.

4. From the perspective of the long-term cycle, the current accumulation situation is still present, and the market as a whole is in the area close to the red zone, with possibly significant issues reflected in the near term. Shrinking the perspective to within 6 months, observe the internal changes in the trend of accumulation.

(Changes in the strength and weakness of the market accumulation status within the past 6 months)

But it has undergone a certain period of fermentation and change.

During the entire period from July to August, the market gradually weakened while accumulating in a state of oscillation and decline.

From the current situation, the market appears to be somewhat fragile.

Possibly relatively safe to characterize as sluggish and in a wait-and-see phase.

Short-term Observation

• Derivative risk coefficient

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange

• Auntie Exchange Net Head

The net head of Da Bing Exchange is in a cumulative outflow state, indicating a relatively low selling pressure within the exchange.

(Net Head of E-Tower Exchange)

E-Tai Exchange's net head presented an accumulated outflow status, indicating a relatively low selling pressure within the exchange.

(High weight suppression in the figure below)

Last week's decline did not involve heavy selling pressure, and there is currently no heavy selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power is fully lost, stablecoin purchasing power has slightly rebounded.

(Global purchasing power status)

USDC exchange net position saw a slight inflow.

USDT exchange net long position has a small inflow.

Chain off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 25500; willing to sell at 30000.

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to buy at the price range of 24000, 25000, and 25500.

There is a willingness to sell around the price of 32000.

(Binance off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 20000, 22000, 24000, and 25000.

2. Connection with legal currency, PayPal has established a bank connection over the years, and PayPal can transfer PYUSD and sell it, and withdraw it to a bank account. Avoid the clumsy problem of past difficulties in depositing and withdrawing funds.

3. Compliance and regulation. PYUSD is issued by New York Trust and incorporates 20 years of experience in dealing with and preventing online financial crime.

4. PayPal's Senior Vice President, José Fernández da Ponte, expressed a strong interest in the gaming industry and is currently working on launching a platform product for developers to build upon.

As a channel connecting the real world and the virtual world, encryption is gradually unfolding.

PayPal's layout has been expanded, and other traditional large financial institutions and more institutions will naturally follow suit.

The expansion of the application side is quietly landing, which may take time, perhaps 5-8 years.

However, everything has already ignited hope, so it is not far away.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. The overall selling pressure is still not high, and the lifting level is also relatively low;

2. There has been no increase in leverage ratio.

3. There has not been too much change in the pressure within the exchange;

4. Insufficient momentum may be generated due to low market expectations;

5. Latest research progress on feature engineering: updates on the experimental versions of rolling empty and explosive multiple conditions.

• Market tone:

The market is relatively fragile, and in the medium to long term, it may require certain leverage reduction and wind control position management.

• Market tone: The current price has temporarily fallen below the short-term holder's cost line, and the market sentiment is not optimistic, with a short-term bias towards weakness.

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia