Global purchasing power is experiencing significant outflows, and we are currently in a platform period before interest rate cuts.
Original Title: "Traveling Thousands of Miles Without Washing the Dust | WTR 7.31"
Original Source: WTR Research Institute
This week review
This week, from July 24th to July 31st, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was near $30099, and the lowest was close to $28861, with a fluctuation range of about 4.06%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 29000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
26000-31000 approximately 4.03 million pieces;
20000~25000 is approximately 1.55 million coins.
• The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 78%.
• The probability of not breaking through 32000-34000 in the short term is 67%.
Important News
2. The core PCE price index in June had an annual rate of 4.1%, which was lower than the expected value of 4.20% and lower than the previous value of 4.60%.
Core PCE inflation rate for June 2021 was 0.2%, lower than the expected value of 0.20% and lower than the previous value of 0.30%. It is the smallest increase since November 2021.
4. The US GDP for the second quarter was 2.4%, significantly exceeding the expected value of 1.8% and higher than the previous value of 2%. Today, the core PCE annual rate is 4.1%, lower than the expected value and the previous value.
Encryption ecosystem news
1. The US House Financial Services Committee passed the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" with a vote of 35 to 15 to protect consumers and provide clear regulatory rules for the digital asset ecosystem.
2. The participation of large traders in BTC and ETH futures regulated by the CME in the second quarter of the year has reached a historic high.
3. The US House of Representatives and Senate have reached a bipartisan agreement on a cryptocurrency bill, which will require cryptocurrency exchanges to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and create a new regulatory framework for BTC and the entire alternative industry.
4. Digital asset launch platform 2MR Labs has completed a new round of financing, with Heliconia Capital, a subsidiary of Temasek, leading the investment.
5. Musk retweeted a Twitter post from DogeDesigner, a UX/UI graphic designer for My Doge wallet, featuring a new logo for Dogecoin - X.
6. ChatGPT(OpenA) founder Sam Altman released an open letter, officially launching his new project Worldcoin's Token, aimed at creating a brand new identity and financial network that everyone owns, providing reliable artificial intelligence and human differentiation solutions.
7. Financial service provider XEROF CEO Marc Taverner said: "We have finally entered the era of BTC financial products."
a. Companies such as Grayscale may eventually receive approval for their US BTC ETF, while global companies such as Deutsche Bank are seeking their own cryptocurrency licenses.
8. 21Shares on-chain analyst Tom Wan: Currently, 1% of Worldcoin's supply is in circulation. According to the token release schedule, Worldcoin will unlock tokens after July 2024, and 6.62 million WLD tokens (about 0.39% of the total supply) will be unlocked every day.
Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.
Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of a certain direction and the occurrence of certain events under certain conditions.
Long-term Insight
• Exchange selling pressure situation
• Chip creation and destruction status
• Spot selling pressure situation
(Trading exchange selling pressure status as shown below)
The selling pressure that flowed into the exchange before is gradually being absorbed by the market, and in the long term, the total amount of selling pressure from the exchange is still not high.
Under normal circumstances, when purchasing power is not strong, it takes some time for the correction of selling pressure.
(Chip creation and destruction status in the figure below)
New chip issuance has seen the largest increase in four years since May of this year.
The previous growth occurred during the early and mid stages of the 2019 small bull market, as well as in the middle of 2015 when the market was relatively bottoming out.
There may be more on-site or off-site participants who are increasing their holdings of chips in the encryption industry. At the bottom of the market, they may have experienced a big round of short selling, followed by a sudden price increase, which has increased the mentality of more participants to hold. During a period of price decline, they... (The sentence is incomplete and ends abruptly. Please provide the complete sentence for accurate translation.)
We are actively increasing our holdings and creating new wallets.
(The current situation of spot selling pressure is shown in the following figure)
The selling pressure of spot goods has already passed the most difficult period.
There may still be some dynamic adjustments in the short term, but in the medium to long term, the most difficult period has passed.
And the throwing pressure at the chain's visual angle is low.
Mid-term exploration
• Whale Exchange Net Leader
• BTC total exchange net leader
• Short-term profit percentage compound model
• Accumulate trend 分
From recent developments, it appears that BTC whales with holdings of 1k or more are depositing a significant amount of BTC into exchanges, causing a severe pressure situation within the market. This may also indicate another perspective on the situation.
The degree of acceptance of the current price is in an unclear state.
Observing the dynamics of the giant whale is only one aspect.
• Green area: short-term profit percentage > 95%
• Yellow line: Short-term participants
In the past six months, the price has continuously touched the green zone, and then remained stagnant or showed weak growth.
In other words, the accumulation of the past six months is still ongoing, and the current stagnation may be the result of the overall market's current choice.
The trend of accumulation indicates that the market as a whole is in a relatively weak state, and the willingness to hold in the past month has been decreasing.
Combining with the short-term participant supply, it may relatively support the weak short-term liquidity situation, which may weaken the momentum of the spot market buyers themselves.
Short-term Observation
• Derivative risk coefficient
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivative trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Global purchasing power status
Derivative Rating: The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk has increased.
(Derivative Risk Coefficient as shown in the figure below)
The price continues to fluctuate, and the risk factor has slipped from the safe zone last week to the danger zone, indicating that the derivative risk has increased. At the same time, it is not too far away from the possibility of a significant fluctuation.
(Option Intention Transaction Ratio in the figure below)
The trading volume of options is at a low level and the proportion of put options is at a relatively low level. At the same time, it indicates that the current willingness to protect against downside risks is low.
(Trading volume of derivative products as shown in the figure below)
The current trading volume of derivatives is at a low level, indicating that current derivative traders are more inclined to wait and see.
(The implied volatility of options in the figure below)
The current implied volatility of options has not shown significant fluctuations, indicating that option traders are more inclined to wait and see.
Emotional State Rating: Neutral
(Profit and loss transfer amount in the following figure)
The current profit and loss transfer amounts have both fallen to a low level. Looking at the chip chart, a large number of chips have accumulated around the 29K and 30K price levels, so we will continue to focus on them this week.
The situation of loss transfer amount.
(新增地址和活跃地址)
Newly added and active addresses are at a relatively high level. Overall, the market activity is good.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it presents an accumulated outflow state with relatively low selling pressure.
There is a small amount of inflow in the pancake, but it is gradually being digested. The current selling pressure in the market is not high.
(The head of E-Tower Exchange is shown in the following figure)
E presents the accumulated state of flow leakage.
(High weight pressure as shown in the figure below)
Currently there is no high-weight pressure.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has been greatly lost, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly rebounded.
(Global purchasing power status in the following figure)
The purchasing power of the Americas and Europe has been almost completely lost, and a large amount of purchasing power in Asia has also been lost.
(Net Head of USDC Exchange as shown below)
There has been a small inflow of net long positions in USDC exchanges.
(Net leader of USDT exchange as shown below)
USDT exchange net position shows a small amount of inflow accumulation state.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 28500 and a willingness to sell at 32000.
(下图 Coinbase 链下数据)
(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 32000, 33000, and 35000.
(下图 Binance 链下数据)
(The following image shows Binance off-chain data)
There is a willingness to purchase at the price range of 26000, 27000, 28000, and 28500.
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 31000, 32000, 33000, and 35000 in the encryption industry.
(下图 Bitfinex 链下数据)
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the following figure)
There is a willingness to sell around the 33000 price range.
This Week's Summary
Summary of the News:
1. In terms of external macro monetary policy, it is difficult to find major negative factors. We are currently at the end of the interest rate cycle and in a period of stability before the rate cut.
2. Negative information that needs attention:
a. 1. At the end of the year, SEC rejected Grayscale's spot ETF.
b. 2. The US government may sell potential information about its holdings of "big cakes".
The past year has been an environment of gradually rising and lifting interest rates and tightening expectations. Cash is the most optimal asset.
And when interest rates start to decline, global participants and investors will have to look for high returns from global stocks to gold to cryptocurrencies.
And we are currently in a platform period of expected and interest rate turning points, which may not last particularly long. The US stock market has already reached a historical high, and gold has been activated.
This can also be seen from the premium of crypto stocks in the US stock market. This year, the premium of crypto stocks is much higher than that of BTC itself.
If the ETF application is approved by Coinbase, it may become one of the big winners.
Due to Coinbase's years of layout in compliance and cooperation with institutions, as well as its mature and stable experience in cooperation with Grayscale and ETF, it has gained worldwide credibility.
For encryption agencies, long-term strategic planning is particularly important.
For the short term: Powell, who speaks as a lawyer, did not reveal much about the intentions of hawks and doves.
More have turned to neutrality, but pay attention to the CPI data in August.
Lower than expected can be interpreted as good news.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
1. The selling pressure that previously flowed into the exchange is gradually being absorbed by the market, and in the long term, the total amount of selling pressure remains low.
2. Starting from May this year, the increase in new chips has reached the largest growth rate in four years; 3. The pressure of spot selling has already passed through a period of great pressure.
• Market tone-setting:
From a long-term perspective, it may have reached the time point of undertaking and turning point, and this process may be relatively lengthy.
On-chain Mid-term Exploration:
1. The deposit situation of WhaleCoin is currently relatively slow;
2. The net position of BTC exchanges is in a state of hesitation;
3. The willingness to hold coins is stagnant, and the short-term supply is relatively weakened.
4. The potential for weak momentum in the spot buying market in the next month.
• Market tone:
Stagnation
The market is stuck in a state of consistency, and the short-term liquidity supply is relatively weakened. It may be necessary to pay attention to uncertain risks in the near future.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The wind risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the wind risk has increased.
2. The newly added active addresses are at a relatively high level, indicating good market activity.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a cumulative outflow state, with relatively low selling pressure.
5. Global purchasing power is experiencing a significant loss, while stablecoin purchasing power is slightly recovering.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is buying interest at the price of 28500 and selling interest at the price of 32000.
7. The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 78%.
8. The probability of not breaking through 32000-34000 in the short term is 67%.
• Market tone-setting:
The overall sentiment of the short-term market is neutral. It may continue to fluctuate, but significant volatility is not expected to be too far away.
Strategy Recommendation:
保有仓位动态对冲。
Translation:Dynamic hedging of existing positions.
Risk Reminder:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, which do not have directional views on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
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