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SignalPlus Macro Research Report: Cryptocurrency trading platform EDX Markets goes live, mainstream market heats up.

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This surge is mainly driven by the market expectations reignited by TradFi giants to spark mainstream interest, led by BTC.

Original Title: "SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230621)"

Original Source: SignalPlus Chinese

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The implied volatility of BTC has basically equaled the historical volatility, and there is no longer any volatility premium. The price of options is actually very reasonable now and suitable for buying.

Strong new home construction data greeted the US market as it returned from the holiday, with new home starts soaring 21.7% to 1.631 million households in May, far exceeding market expectations and marking the largest monthly increase since 2016. Single-family home construction increased by 18.5%, while multi-family home construction surged by 27.1%. Although we have previously mentioned the strength of US consumers and the housing market in our comments, the current level of activity in the real estate market is still incredible, considering that 30-year mortgage rates are still hovering around the 20-year high of 7%.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks some of the most popular Chinese companies listed in the United States, fell 4.9% yesterday, marking the second largest single-day decline this year. This is due to the fact that the decline in the China 5-year loan prime rate (LPR) was smaller than expected, which dampened people's expectations for the People's Bank of China's "comprehensive" easing policy. Since 2021, the performance of Chinese-related stocks has been lagging behind the SPX 500 index. It is hoped that the visit of Secretary of State Blinken to Beijing will further thaw the relationship between the two countries, and both sides have expressed goodwill after the successful talks.

Significant decrease in the put/call ratio skewness of SPX options during the rebound of the index, with abnormally narrow market breadth. Most indicators show overvalued stock valuations. Even in the face of these negative backgrounds, investor sentiment has turned to the most positive level in two years.

In the field of cryptocurrency, mainstream interest has suddenly increased, and EDX, a regulated cryptocurrency exchange supported by Citdael, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab, has announced its launch. In addition to spot trading, the exchange also plans to introduce EDX clearing services as a centralized clearing solution. Other well-known investors include Paradigm, Sequoia, Virtu, GSR, and Hudson River Trading. Furthermore, Fidelity, which has taken different actions to indicate its intention to participate more deeply in the digital asset field, is rumored to be submitting its own spot ETF application in the near future.

In response, cryptocurrency prices have rebounded by about 7-10% in the past few trading days, recovering most of the losses since the Binance FUD. This wave of gains was mainly driven by market expectations reignited by TradFi giants, with BTC leading the way. As a result, BTC's dominance has risen to 51%, the highest level since 2021.

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