Cobo Divine Fish: 2023 In search of New narrative logic
The author is co-founder and CEO of Divine Fish Cobo
Source: Cobo Global wechat official account
On rate hikes and FTX
First of all, the biggest macro impact in 2022 is interest rate hikes, which put pressure on global assets including cryptocurrencies, and events like the FTX crash within the cryptocurrency market made the cryptocurrency market take a big hit.
The biggest impact of the FTX event is on the existing ecosystem of trading platforms, which will then evolve to address the issue of trust in centralised trading. Industry bodies, including Cobo, are now looking for ways to promote a more transparent and healthy trading ecosystem.
Decentralisation of trading platforms is one direction, as is compliance. As a custodian platform, Cobo hopes to help achieve the separation of trading, custody and settlement through the forthcoming SuperLoop, while ensuring the efficiency of trading, thus restoring the confidence of trading institutions in trading.
Member of the Cobo Loop Alliance
In 2019, Cobo was the first to launch a cross-platform cryptocurrency clearing and settlement network -- Loop Alliance, which allows alliance members (such as trading platforms, trading institutions, etc.) to instantly settle transactions off-chain. When Loop Alliance is upgraded to SuperLoop in the future, it will become a trading platform OTC custody and settlement network, allowing trading teams to trade on the trading platform while maintaining independent custody of funds.
About DCG
The DCG thing is not going to scale up any further as far as we can see -- and by scaling up, I mean the forced sale of hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin assets to the grayscale. So,In terms of the main driver of the market decline, there is no large-scale possible liquidation risk.
About Ethereum
The second thing is actually quite clear, is that Ethereum Foundation has announced that the Shanghai upgrade in March is almost certain to arrive on time, and the foundation is determined to ensure the Shanghai upgrade even if several other features are shelved.
From this point of view Ethereum is injected to the industry a shot in the arm. Staking, staking, staking, staking, staking, staking, staking, staking,So, the Staking liquidity risk that is bugging everyone in 2022 could be staking with an upgrade in March.
Looking back at the history, the whole Ethereum Foundation makes major strategic decisions. Whether it is 1559, merger or Shanghai upgrade, it usually chooses some favorable external macro environment actively. Therefore, March is also a relatively important time node.
Third, we are seeing a lot of L2, especially ZK-based L2, with a lot of talk about beta or mainnet coming online in Q3 or Q4 2023.
In general,From the perspective of the internal factors of the industry, there is no big potential risk in the coming year. In addition, there are two positive factors, one is in March and the other is in Q4. So at that level, there is not much of an event-driven decline.
About the period
There are two other things to be aware of. One is that Bitcoin will halve in just over 470 days.If we replicate the effects of the entire halving cycle of the past decade, it also means that a new market could be born by the end of this year.
The other is from the perspective of the whole cryptocurrency market cycle, the whole cycle is bull short bear long. Since March of last year, we have entered the bear market phase, which is basically a little more than a year, and it is almost over.
Based on the above analysis of macro and intra-industry factors, looking back at the industry over the past year, we have passed the most painful or rapid decline in this bear market, and now we are in a stage where the market gradually recovers confidence, finds a new narrative logic, and consolidates.
Looking ahead to 2023, with the rate hike cycle and these drivers within the industry, expect a wave of market hot spots likely in Q2 and another wave starting in Q4 in the second half.
Barring a particularly nasty black swan event or a deterioration in external macro factors, the bottom of our cryptocurrency market may have been reached and we expect the big uptrend to be more intensive over the next year.
A little share at the end of the year, as a New Year greetings. Finally, I wish the old iron can continue to maintain strong will in 2023, harvest happiness!
Divine fish
The fifth day of the first month, 2003
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