Dialogue God fish: In the narrative frame, the probability of Q4 this year to next year there is a round of half the market

Original title: Bitcoin Halving: Could it be the Starting Point for the next bull Market?

ForesightNews

Guest: Shen Yu, co-founder and CEO of Cobo

Host: Colin Wu, Wu said blockchain founder

Colin Wu (host) : Hello everyone! Although people in the industry are very familiar with it, but there are outside the circle of the audience, please God fish simple self-introduction.

God Fish: Hello, everyone! My name is Shen Yu, an old leek and an old miner. In 2011, I officially participated in the early construction of Chinese blockchain. In 2013, I launched the first mining pool in the Chinese world, which once became the largest bitcoin and Ethereum mining pool in the world. At its peak, we had more than a third of Bitcoin's computing power, and for a small anecdote, we were also the only team in the world that had ever done a successful double-flower attack on Bitcoin.

After 2017, it was found that blockchain began to have a large number of applications, but a lot of risks were exposed around security and private key management. As a company good at infrastructure, Cobo was established to focus on private key management and its derivative risks. At present, the company has been engaged in more than six years, mainly focusing on the underlying security and wallet hosting, from fully centralized and semi-centralized MPC co-management to fully decentralized on-chain smart contract multi-signature product forms.

Colin Wu (host) : Just to give you a brief introduction, if you read the news, you can search for "Wu said blockchain" on Twitter, Telegram, public account.

God fish is Crypto Chinese circle most willing to share people, a lot of news he has been published in a variety of interviews, articles, you can also go online to search some of his past views. In some ways, he was the most forthcoming early moguls in the Chinese-language industry.

The currency circle can be divided into several stages. The earliest stage is for those who joined the industry in 2015. In China, miners are the main ones. Many early articles are very interesting, for example, you are in a QQ group, is very interesting awareness, you can search some articles, remember that God fish also accepted video interview, please God fish to share with you.

Divine fish: I entered the circle by accident. At that time, when I was in college, I suddenly saw the news of Bitcoin twice in the process of reading books in the library and surfing the Internet in a very boring afternoon, which may be the news of bitcoin breaking 1 dollar. I was curious to search what is Bitcoin and found this white paper written by Satoshi Nakamoto. Then I spent three months lying in bed watching Bitcoin forums and community discussions. I didn't get out of bed, including food brought back by my dorm classmates.

After visiting the forum for more than three months, I found that the Crypto world at that time was still a group of crypto geeks, who all had a variety of wild ideas. It seemed impossible at that time, but the underlying logic seemed to be logical. The core problem of cryptocurrency was that the currency could be freely circulated globally after digitization without being double spent. It's all mature technology, but it's a very good combination.

As an engineering student, I was deeply attracted by these technologies and discussions, so I did not study hard in college, but did construction and exploration in the Bitcoin community. At the very beginning, I translated foreign technical articles into China and made a lot of domestic friends. At the very beginning, the domestic community was centered around QQ groups as a means of communication. For example, some groups that you can still see and hear, such as "Peace Hotel" and some mysterious groups, in my impression, there are about 40,000 or 50,000 people in the group. On the one hand, there are a bunch of encryption geeks, and on the other hand, there are a lot of people in the country who, coincidentally, have a lot of graphics resources. These people started out doing the crack of Nokia mobile phones, and then suddenly the iPhone became popular, and these mobile phones were out of the market, and they had a lot of idle graphics cards, and they happened to discover Bitcoin, and they went in and used the graphics cards to mine. Basically, in the 2011-2013 period, the Chinese crypto ecosystem consisted of these two groups, a bunch of idealistic crypto punks and a bunch of down-to-earth miners with graphics cards.

China was lucky to hit the very core of the crypto circuit, mining, very early on, when there were only two things you could do in crypto ecology: Trading and mining. After 2013, many exchanges with Chinese background began to emerge. After we experienced a round of group-buying wars in the Web2 world, some companies switched to the Crypto exchange circuit, which also became the predecessor of the well-known crypto exchange. All kinds of exciting ideas and ideas are discussed every day. But more than a decade later, many of the ideas and ideas that were discussed at the time, such as stablecoin ideas and early decentralized exchange ideas, are now being realized.

Looking back now, it looked like a lot of incredible innovations and ideas could be realized. Today, it's a much better stage, with a lot of on-chain infrastructure and applications, so the future is becoming clearer and clearer.

Colin Wu (host) : Thank you for sharing his early status, including the QQ group where he mentioned "Peace Hotel". If you are interested, you can search on Baidu and google. There are many interesting things about the formation of the early Chinese Bitcoin world community, and there are also many video interviews, including the familiar Bao Erye, President and so on. You can see a lot of information in search engines.

2017 is the Mesozoic era, 2017 ushered in the biggest bull market in the industry, and now many well-known people became more dazzling at that time, such as the relatively hot Sun brother these days, such as CZ Zhao Changpeng, including a lot of China-related public chain, whether it is Neo, quantum chain, but there are also a lot of people think it is more full of ICO chaos.

What's worth reviewing and sharing about the meaning of the industry in 2017?

Divine fish: Looking back today, the wave of ICO market in 2017 is of great significance, which has been ignored by everyone. In 2017, there were a lot of ICO bubbles, and a lot of speculation and even direct fraud projects emerged. Looking back in 2020 and 2021, it brought a large number of on-chain asset categories to the Ethereum ecology. This is also the factor of DeFi explosion in the past two years, because there are absolutely more assets, in 2017 a year there were 20, 30 ICO projects were born, like ICO and IPO, in the real world can not imagine such a big IPO happened, even ten years can not have such a big order of magnitude. Although a large number of fraud events emerged in an endless stream, but after a year of cycle precipitation, good projects, good agreements still precipitated, and in constant iteration, new innovations emerged in the ruins, the industry is round after round of bubbles.

The underlying infrastructure is a process driven by the underlying performance of blockchain, the underlying public chain infrastructure and the application layer. Once you have a large number of bubbles, resulting in a large explosion of applications, it forces the underlying blockchain infrastructure to perfect itself. However, at the peak of the bubble, it was found that the underlying infrastructure of blockchain could not support the technological development of the application. At this time, the bubble burst and entered the precipitation period. There were a lot of geeks of all kinds who would iterate on the underlying infrastructure and lay the foundation for the next explosion in the future, which was also the internal driving factor for the industry to continue to iterate so fast. Bubbles are a good thing, but everyone in the bubble needs to keep a certain level of calm and do the logical thing, which is a good thing in the long run of the industry cycle.

Colin Wu (host) : It makes perfect sense that the average person would think that 2017 was full of bubbles and a very chaotic state of affairs for ICOs in the entire industry. Now, the projects that came out in 2020, 2021 were also done in 2017, 2018, both Uniswap and now more DEFI-related protocols and public chains like Poca and Filecoin were done at that time, The protocol level itself is not as efficient as centralised institutions, and it will take some time to get things better. In 2017, we invested in many projects, but in 2020 and 2021, there were thousands of times and thousands of times. Looking back, it turns out that we invested in the so-called high-quality projects in 2017 and 2018.

You just mentioned DeFi. The most important thing in 2020 and 2021 is the rise of DeFi, including yourself, who was the most famous DeFi miner at that time. From physical miners to DeFi miners, what was the specific stage when you became interested in DeFi? DeFi after several years of precipitation, what is the new view of DeFi industry?

My personal contact with DeFi was at the end of the bull market in 2018 and 2019, at the beginning of the bear market, when some DeFi protocols started to emerge. On EOS, there were early protocols on Ethereum. At that time, DeFi failed to be implemented on a large scale and lacked drivers. I spent some time exploring it, and found that I had lost almost all my money, so I stopped. From 2020 to 2021, the DeFi has obviously shown an inflection point, with a new upsurge of liquidity incentive represented by Compound.

I have a good habit. I am willing to spend some time, energy and cost on trial and error in the front direction of trial and error in the industry, make observations, and set an indicator. When the turning point of the indicator comes, I will spend time and energy on further research. In 2020 and 2021, when I found DeFi data improvement and user influx, I spent some time. After watching for two or three days, the market was completely different and grew spontaneously. Then I invested a lot of energy and put a lot of assets in DeFi to do a series of operations. Call on friends around, people in the group to take a look at the DeFi has taken a qualitative change, but also more lucky to catch the DeFi wave, do a good job in the transition of miners.

From the original miner in the physical world to the DeFi player on the chain, the restriction on the real world is a little less, because for a long time in the past, it was hard to find electricity, mining, and deal with a variety of physical world, which was quite a big pressure on students who were more technical. DeFi later found that it had experienced a lot of early technology accumulation in the whole industry and had a lot of advantages. The ultimate pursuit of private key management and underlying security made it better play in the on-chain world, so it built a variety of internal infrastructure in DeFi to improve efficiency. Recently, we will gradually open the internal self-use tools for everyone to use, welcome everyone to experience.

Colin Wu (host) : 2020 is the "DeFi summer" and 2021 will be the year of the explosion of NFT. There should be a degree of momentum around NFT, all kinds of little pictures, games, and more than DeFi, because DeFi is facing various regulatory factors, especially after Terra's explosion. But the NFT seems more clearly aligned with the mainstream.

I remember Vitalik said that what surprised him most was the explosion of NFT. He had no idea that NFT would have such a big explosion, especially the completion of the right confirmation, trading and transfer of digital collectibles, which really changed the demand for just need.

God fish has a characteristic, what love to play, basically no he does not play, NFT he also play very much. Is the outlook for NFT very good from the current perspective? And there are a lot of entrepreneurs. Have your own ideas or suggestions for NFT entrepreneurs.

God Fish: Although I personally play more, but also more loss.

NFT market is very interesting and interesting market, it has very large characteristics, relatively dispersed, and different from other markets, like DeFi head effect is very strong, the chain is carrying high-value transactions, after all, the blockchain space is very precious. But the NFT market is different, with a large number of fragmented communities, each with its own native idiosyncrasies and cultural characteristics, within which it is easy to find a sense of identity. When NFT first emerged in 2021, many of our friends would stay up late at 3 or 5 a.m. and call us happily to talk about NFT. They would talk all night about how great the protocol was, how relevant it was, what cultural value it had. We're seeing a lot of values emerging that cater to the emotional needs of a wide range of cultures, including values like social capital. From this dimension, the success and existence of NFT are of certain value and significance.

For the majority of young friends, compared with the Crypto world, the threshold of entry in the field of NFT is very low, do not need to understand a lot of cryptography knowledge, do not need to have a lot of money, as long as there is a certain art appreciation ability, humanistic spirit, we see is not the same scene and experiment. In the NFT world in particular there's a lot of post-OO, and in the early stages people are doing IP, building communities, so basically the cost of entry is very low. The NFT market is full of get-rich-quick stories that bring in new blood.

Standing at present, the NFT cycle may be very short, that is, the emotional cycle of about 3 months, may have experienced 3 or 4 rounds of rapid cycle, standing in today's relatively bear market, NFT combined with a lot of IP, traffic, let the Crypto world become more diversified, this is particularly important, because the future belongs to the young generation. Under such conditions, NFT has brought a lot of new industry forces, although I personally lost a lot of money, but still very firmly optimistic about the NFT market to Crypto in the future to bring new blood.

In addition, it can be seen that there are many non-standardized assets in the real world, which are difficult to express through standardized tokens on the chain. NFT is a good asset category, which can carry many real world assets. From this perspective, the future NFT market is promising, not only PFP collectors. There may still be a lot of value in integrating with the real world, but behind it, more efforts are needed to promote better integration between the industry and the real world. The road will be a little longer, but it should become a reality in the not too distant future.

Colin Wu (host) : The year 2022 has been a very painful year for the Crypto industry, even the largest year in the history of mine explosion, whether it is from the beginning of small exchanges in China, such as Tiger Fu, AEX and Terra caused huge vibration. After that, Terra detonated Three Arrows Capital, which ranks the best in Crypto venture capital, and then three Arrows Capital continued to detonate, detonating DCG, the largest group giant in the industry. Only then did everyone find that such a bright looking giant was so fragile. When everyone thought that this thing was coming to an end, the fiercest one came in the second half of the year. sam, the founder of FTX, the world's most glamorous entrepreneur, who donates to politicians, gives to religious leaders, acts altruistically, attends all sorts of great meetings every day, embezzled the assets of his users, became insolvent, and made a lot of ridiculous deals.

With a simple news report and a tweet by Zhao Changpeng, the empire of tens of billions can collapse in a single breath. 2022 must be a very painful but exciting year in the history of cryptocurrency, and it will also leave a lot of lessons for everyone, including the collapse of many familiar companies in the mining circle. There are even a lot of problems that have not been dealt with. Of course, it's going to be healthy in 2022. From your point of view, what are the most impressive lessons you've learned in 2022, or what do you think the industry needs to learn?

The year 2022 is indeed very cruel. There are many old friends around you who can't have dinner together because of various things.

In the past year, the industry as a whole fluctuated very big, emerge in an endless variety of accidents. But looking back, in the history of more than 10 years since the birth of bitcoin, the underlying logic of all kinds of security accidents unknown to everyone is the same, and the essence is the problem of human nature. Although the industry is widely criticized for its high volatility and various uncertainties, the certainty of the industry is very strong in the past two years, because a large number of friends with very bright resumes and a lot of Wall Street capital came to the industry. The industry began to have native applications, with DeFi, NFT and GameFi, it is no longer air. In such a boom, suddenly hit a big hole, the bubble burst, a lot of things disillusionment. A long time ago, we also went through such things one after another. The bottom line is that people are getting more and more inflated about themselves, individuals and companies. After reaching a certain psychological state, many decisions are no longer so rational. Blockchain gives us a lot of freedom and gives us the technological means and tools to provide a more transparent and open world.

On the contrary, the power was finally transferred by the end users to the owners of centralized organizations. Although they seemed very bright and bright on the surface and participated in various political events, in the process, each user failed to master the technology given to us by the bottom of the industry and handed over the strongest sword to a third party to keep for us. This is a very big challenge facing the industry at present. It's hard for the man who helps us run this key to resist his greed.

As a manager, it is easy for him to use everyone's key. Many people do not know that the industry volatility is high and there are a lot of high-quality information, so it is easy to make a lot of money. When the industry is in a state of rapid expansion and prosperity, more or less a certain probability of people cannot resist the temptation of their hearts and secretly use this key. Once a profit is possible, his heart will further expand, use more and more, the final state is an extreme black swan, a sudden accident leads to the asset ash.

So I think 2022 is the year of disenchantment, and we have learned a very important lesson. We must deeply realize that even a company can go bankrupt. What can we believe? You should not believe in human nature, you should believe in mathematics, you should believe in the underlying technical principles. We must master the technological means given to us by blockchain in the new era, and master the key in our own hands.

After the extreme events in the industry last year, people are also discussing and actively thinking about how to make everyone better use of blockchain technology in the future, increase the transparency of the industry and avoid those things against humanity. Now I see the rapid development of selfless key technology based on MPC multi-party calculation. I believe that in the near future, everyone can have a key out of the box, but your counterparty and service party, they may only have one key, all the transaction process and assets will not be in any party's hands, are open, transparent and visible. It can make full use of the underlying characteristics of blockchain and mathematics as the basic guarantee. While we may have learned a very painful lesson in 2022, where basically 40 to 50 percent of the industry's centralized organizations have gone up in the air for a variety of reasons, it has made us even more determined on the decentralized side, and there is a clear sense that the industry is basically in agreement that an unselfish key solution based on MPCS, This is a big step up in terms of decentralized transparency.

One obvious example is that large hedge fund teams are voluntarily asking for the use of MPC technology to help manage their assets, rather than putting their assets safely on a centralized exchange. In addition, we also see the rapid development of the original decentralized and transparent DEXs trading volume and derivatives trading volume on the chain. In that sense, we learned a big lesson in 2022, but the people in the industry, the crypto geeks, have learned the lesson, and we are coming out of the trough, and the next 2-5 years are going to bring us more technology and more freedom.

Colin Wu (host) : Just to add to that, it was a very painful year in 2022, but there have been a lot of improvements in the industry. For example, centralized exchanges are starting to have on-chain proof of stock POR, which is a lot of criticism and a lot of problems, but it's still a very important thing. For example, if there are some white users watching our video and present, if the exchange where the currency is located does not publish the POR certificate, please take out your coins. If an exchange is not even afraid to prove the POR certificate, why should he do an exchange? Where did they move their money? Has become a very simple choice.

A brief look into the future, next year is the next half of bitcoin, generally accompanied by halving the market will also have changes, there are many people now believe that the price of bitcoin and the Federal Reserve may have a deeper relationship, and is no longer affected by the cycle of bitcoin halving, please God fish to repeat your old talk about next year's bitcoin halving, and the impact of halving on the price, the market. Your personal judgment is not used as financial investment advice.

God fish: First of all, I am not suitable for secondary investment, I entered the industry three months before the discovery of this matter, so I embarked on the road of mining, otherwise I would go to the currency. Cryptocurrencies have been highly correlated to macro since 2017, and even more so since the rate hike this year, although there may be some event-driven results from industry native factors.

From a year-to-year, short-term perspective, there are two big core drivers: one is macro, we're a small pond, and depending on the level of the pond, one factor is whether macro will release water. At present, the macro is likely to improve, in addition to the large number of US bank explosion in March, which made people regard bitcoin as a safe haven asset again, from this perspective, the macro is improving, at least neutral factor.

Second, the industry's endogenous driving factors. From an economic point of view, halving does not play a big role at present, but it is a good narrative logic, and everyone has a frame, in the narrative frame, there is a high probability that Q4 this year to next year should have another round of halving. At present, the mainstream mining machine in the world is still S19 mining machine. If the currency price stabilizes below 30,000 USD after halving next year, these mining machines will have to shut down. This rarely happens in history, and even if it does happen, it will be very brief. So I personally think Q4 by next year's halving market is worth looking forward to.

Colin Wu (host) : Shenyu is the founder of Cobo, please introduce Cobo, Cobo is mainly engaged in trusteeship business, trusteeship business is invested in a very large long-term business, would like to ask Shenyu to introduce the future development direction of Cobo and improve how to compete with western mainstream trusteeship institutions, how to become more competitive?

Shenyu: Just now we talked about a lot of paths that the industry has developed from the early stage. We can see that there are two major problems at the core of this industry: one is TPS problem and performance problem. Every round of industry development is driven by application, which eventually leads to application failure and bubble bursting.

The second is a set of solutions provided to end users. This solution can make users very simple and easy to use, while ensuring the security of users, allowing users to access the blockchain, so that users will not cede their key rights to a third party, which are two major problems in the industry.

The current performance problem should be solved in the near future. The industry has been exploring for 7 or 8 years, and the solution is based on layer 2 network and Layer 3 network.

The next problem is the security of the underlying private key. Since 2017, Cobo has found that there are endless security accidents in the encryption world. People begin to interact with the chain more and more, so that many helpless people and people who do not master technology are exposed to hackers. We try to build a set of solutions around the underlying risk security private key and its private key risk management, the underlying logic is around the different stages of the industry to find its core application scenarios, in the application scenario to provide a set of solutions around the private key.

The first stage is represented by bitcoin. The core blockchain application is sending and receiving, storage and transfer, plus the transaction of bitcoin digital assets. In this stage, Cobo Custody is made, a pure centralized custody solution, and the blockchain wallet is taken as a SaaS product. Make Wallet as a service, so that users can use the demand adjustment API of sending and receiving, storage and transfer, which is very suitable for the current state of Hong Kong. There are a large number of compliance funds and emerging transactions need to find a set of products with compliance, security, ease of use and Web2 experience. This is Cobo Custody and Wallet as a service.

In the second stage, it is found that people start to have a lot of interaction with the chain. At this time, they need to have the ability of chain and contract account management to encapsulate a lot of capacity accumulated in the DeFi field into Cobo Argus products. The bottom layer is multi-sign-on on the chain, which has a lot of ability to interact with various blockchain DeFi protocols. There are also a series of risk management modules and automated procedures to better support the 724 hour response on the chain to handle extreme situations.

In the third stage, post-FTX era, people became more and more aware of the importance of Key control, and many large institutions began to say can we have a transparent and separate pool of assets, all of which I have to authorize to use. Therefore, on the basis of the earliest centralized hosting, the underlying technology is iterated to the MPC technology. The end user holds the key, we hold a key to help manage assets, we mainly use this Key for risk control, and another key is used for cold storage in the third party, maybe security companies. Later, many companies found this scheme very good, so they iterated on the basis of our scheme and provided products for end users. When the end users only had the account password, they could quickly enter the blockchain. A large number of game companies used our solution. Let end users enter the Crypto world with Web2 experience. When the end user grows to a certain degree and may have high-value assets in the chain, for example, the scarce NFT is suddenly acquired in the game, at this time, the account can be upgraded and the third key can be granted to the user. The user has the willingness and motivation to learn and understand the basic concept, and can better use the key after getting it.

Basically, we provide three different products around these three stages: a pure centralized cryptographer-based hosting solution, a multi-sign-on solution for on-chain smart contracts, and a decentralized co-managed MPC solution. Basically these three solutions are for different scenarios, the core is still to address your asset security and private keys, and around the use of private keys on various scenarios of risk management.

It is expected that through the efforts and iterations of the company, more users can flood into the blockchain more safely, easily and at ease, and explore the wonderful on-chain ecology on the chain.

Colin Wu (host) : Thank you very much.

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