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Do you really know the X to Earn the track? Establish the analytical logic of X to Earn classification system

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Are the items in X to Earn really homogeneous? How do you classify it in different ways? How to evaluate the project from the investment logic?

原文标题：《你真的了解 X to Earn 赛道吗？——建立 X to Earn 分类体系的分析逻辑》

W Labs Melon Field Lab

Looking back at the complete "trough peak trough trough" cycle of the crypto industry from 2020 to 2022, DEFI, NFT and Chainyou three new tracks dance each other, among which the two most dazzling projects Axie and StepN are: Axie created the "play to earn" model, which led to the craze of small picture gold farming. After Axie faded, StepN took the lead and guided players to build consensus with a light "walk to earn" mode that more closely matches players' real life: Besides making money in the game, you can also find healthy pleasures. In terms of retention metrics and the actual effect of the drive, StepN is the first chain game to have a loop breaking effect. It is even considered a good WEB3 product. As a result, X to Earn tracks have become one of the most important modules in the chain.

StepN's walk to Earn money was popular in the crypto circle, especially the "four days' return of money" after the shoes were added to BNB Chain, which brought the madness to its peak. Various X to Earn projects emerged in an endless stream. At that time, we also published a series of long articles "Move to Earn Track Analysis". Analysis of several StepN copy disk, but not finished, StepN on the B chain began to ebb, cooling speed is faster than our code word speed, so that series we rotten end... Is the problem in the gameplay and operation of StepN? I don't think so. The original sin is the double Token model developed based on Axie. The underlying logic of such model leads to "Fomo and Fomo".

X to Earn a track that is still highly prized by players and investors, mainly because of its potential to connect with real life. But if you think about it, are the items in X to Earn really homogeneous? How do you classify it in different ways? How to evaluate the project from the investment logic? Guatara Lab always likes to be the first to eat, and we try to build a logical classification system of X to Earn:

X to Earn 的分类逻辑

(1) Life application

Based on the threshold of user (C-side) use of the product, we have established the standard of "life app class", where the product is a part of the user's life frequently happens, let you Earn while doing. As a player, you're supposed to do these things, and you're doing them while you're doing them, and you're using these products, and you're giving them rewards to encourage you to do better.

Life application can be subdivided into light and heavy category. Lightweight refers to the fact that this product can be played without the purchase of other heavy add-ons, and the entry barrier for C-terminal users is low. Such as Sleepagotchi (which assumes you don't have to buy a separate device, but instead use an off-the-shelf device like your phone or watch), you can sleep as an individual. StepN, for example, can run as long as you have shoes.

Light products currently appear to have two characteristics:

First, the lighter the product, the more the audience, the greater the possibility of the circle. Investors are currently choosing projects that are X to Earn track, such as Sleepagotchi, where many reportedly didn't have the quota. Second, the lighter a product is, the more intense it needs to be, which means the more obvious benefits players get from the product beyond Earn. For example, the products in the category of reading books are heavy in the light category of products. People who love reading books have formed a private domain flow. He can use this product in order to read this hobby. But in the case of sleep products, sleep is not a hobby, it's something everyone has to do, so this product needs to have an extra powerful feature to enable it (besides making money).

Take Sleepagotchi, a product that emphasizes the ability to improve sleep, similar to WEB2 SleepOn. Seriously, if Sleepagotchi can do this, it will not only make me money, but it will make me spend money on it. It will be the brain gold of WEB3. There is also the familiar StepN of running category, heavier than sleeping category, lighter than jumping rope category and reading category, so it introduces the concept of "more running is healthy". As you can see, both Sleepagotchi and Stepn have a positive and uplifting narrative in common: Sleepagotchi is about getting yourself into a healthy routine (better sleep and more drops), and Stepn is about getting yourself into an exercise routine (the more you run, the more you gain).

Here is a brief analysis of the popular Hook recently. It is a star product launched by IEO after 9 months of holding Binion. It belongs to the "Learn to Earn" type. From the logic of product design, I personally do not look good, the reasons are as follows:

First, the barriers to entry are very low. Everyone can answer questions. The point is, is answering questions a daily necessity? It's not the same as sleeping and walking. Second, it's not getting any better. Learning is against human nature, leisure is essential, and can answering questions be turned into a hobby like reading or running? You're not a bully repeat reader. Thirdly, users can be encouraged to show off their knowledge at the wine table. Why don't I go to Douyin or Zhihu?

Therefore, I feel that Hook's product usage logic is strange, which is simply to make money to answer questions. I wonder if Binance was thinking about that when they held it. But these analysis really doesn't matter, as long as the money is safe dad is the only reason, ha ha ha.

Hook 代币的价格图

Have you found that the two light categories of sleeping and walking are lighter, which users have to do every day in real life, so they need to be more obvious in addition to making money, at least in the promotion need to be more powerful; To slightly heavier skipping and reading, is optional in real life, it is necessary to start introducing the concept of fans, like skipping like reading come in to play, private traffic began to establish; Further, to the reinstallation class of products, basically rely on the private domain traffic to support the product.

Reloaded products require additional equipment or objects to be attached, and the entry threshold of C terminal users is high. For example, bikers (bike-sharing is special in our country), pet owners, etc., you have to have a bike or a pet, it costs extra, only true fans will join. Therefore, for reloaded products, it is strongly recommended to operate in WEB2 teams that already have private domain traffic, emphasizing the conversion of WEB2 into WEB3. For example, Giant can do Bike to Earn, sell dog food can do Raise to Earn. If you don't have a certain fan base, it will be much more difficult to build a tall building from the ground up.

In conclusion, the project of life application focuses on analyzing the characteristics of C end. How can you tell if an X to Earn product for life applications has potential? If it's lighter, focus on:

The entry barrier is low enough to determine the number of participants, and the crowd size determines the upper limit of the project. Whether the thrill beyond making money is convincing enough to actually work; Team recruitment of new Xiaobai operation and publicity ability is strong enough.

If it's a reloaded class, focus on:

Whether the team background comes with private domain traffic; Product based on a point of interest social attributes can do up.

(2) Works creation

相对于「生活应用类」，我们近期更关注「作品创作类」的产品，因为这个类别的产品可能有优秀的作品（IP）产出，有概率进化成类似「抖音」的广社交平台，然后就可以对原生 Token 有了新场景赋能（进入了 socialfi 的领域），甚至可以有外部广告收入，使得经济模型更健康。

Work creation projects may produce very excellent works or creators, and then start to spread viral, eye-catching effect is very significant. Sing well, dance well, write well, it is possible. And life applications, for example, no matter how stable the sleep, no matter how handsome the running movement, no matter how long the distance, can become excellent works? No, unless Guan Xiaotong sleeps on live streaming, or StepN produces an Olympic marathon champion. Therefore, the products of life application can only be optimized in the function of the product itself, and it is difficult to evolve. This may be the reason why StepN has been trying to do social networking, but the effect is not obvious.

Work creation products can enable excellent producers of C-end users to Earn high income, which is the idea of "Skill to Earn", and such income can not come from Ponzi, but from the heartfelt consumption of fans (imagine the live broadcast of sending airplanes in WEB2, the internal purchase of each chapter in Shuang Wen series, etc.). And subsequent advertising and other commercial revenue.

But the difficulty of the creation class comes from the B end, which is the high cost at the beginning (which we define as "foundation cost"). For example, in singing, most of the users began to sing the works of other singers with copyright, so the project side had to buy the copyright of the songs. For example, if users want to read good novels, the project side will have to talk to a large number of excellent authors, and it will cost a lot of costs to invite them to join.

To sum up, the feature of the product creation category is that there may be excellent works or creators that can be spread wildly. The analysis should start from end B to see if there is enough capital to cover the foundation cost. Such products need more long-term layout. To really do well, they need to evolve into the stage of social interaction, which is possible to obtain external income and make the economic model enter the self-cycle.

(3) Case analysis

In the field of Sing to Earn, we find two work creation cases Melody and MMMM, which are almost directly PK, to analyze together how work creation products can evolve.

Let me first review the status of these two projects:

Melody：2022 年 7 月开始销售盲盒，10 月开始上治理 Token SNS 和游戏 Token SGS，然后引爆市场，各种消息各种 FOMO，中国区用户为主。到了 12 月，治理 Token 跌了 95%, 游戏 Token 跌了 99.5%（截止 2023 年初）。NFT 地板价 0.16BNB，而 2022 年 11 月第三批 3000 个盲盒的销售价格为 3BNB。判断：项目已经凉凉。

Melody 游戏代币的价格走势图

MMMM：2022 年 10 月先从日本和韩国社区开始启动，节奏缓慢，第一批 4000 个盲盒在 2022 年 11 月 11 日 freemint，地板价最高涨至 0.2ETH，目前 0.075ETH，内测 11 月 25 日开始，12 月底上了不删档的内测。社区热度和人数目前正在缓慢增加， Token 未上线。判断：团队是想做一个长线音乐产品。

Guatan Laboratory has been tracking these two projects, and the operation methods of the projects are completely different: The most obvious feature of Melody project is that the team has strong promotion ability and has the ability to ignite the market in a short time, so NFT entered the market in the way of sales. 9000 blind boxes were sold in three batches (1.5B, 2B, 3B). The two tokens were also launched at the same time in October. It's a typical way to make money as a head miner. However, this kind of hasty operation method is not suitable for X to Earn products in the category of work creation, which seems wasteful. Husky is turned into a soil dog. Good music hasn't come out yet, and the project is running out of energy.

We observe the actions of the MMMM project side, which is still in the input stage. NFT is Freemint, the token is not yet on, so to describe it with a word in the coin circle: "the estate is still there." So we focus on analyzing MMMM from several aspects:

3.1 Future development and potential: Social module

Why emphasize the potential for such products to evolve to the social stage? But back to the economic model:

1. No matter Melody or MMMM, this kind of product is very heavy in the B end, heavy because it needs to spend a lot of money to buy the song copyright, the foundation cost is too high, which is also the reason why many investment institutions shun this kind of product. Melody had been vague about the copyright, while MMMM had explicitly purchased the music rights in several AMA's.

2、版权买完后，鼓励用户们上 APP 唱歌，唱的好给你 Token 奖励，就类似于链游中的 PVE 模式，玩家一起可以撸项目方。如果截止到这个阶段就 game over 了，项目方赚什么钱？花钱买了版权，花钱给了用户激励，项目方是雷锋吗？所以如果项目方想在第一阶段场景去赚钱，就要不断的卖 NFT，不断的在二级市场拉高币价后再出货。

3. The current action of MMMM is, NFT is freemint, the token is not on, and the copyright has spent a lot of money, how does it want to make money? Most likely, the product will evolve to stage two: the social model, which will generate long-term, stable cash flow through socialfi and external revenue.

4、设想下，一名死宅撸毛男，天天在 MMMM 上吼了几首歌，赚了一些 Mess（游戏 Token ），就等着 Token 上线卖了。结果项目方搞了一个超女或乘风破浪比赛，里面的小姐姐们又美唱的又好，作品水平不下于韩国女团，还有可能出几个陈一发或冯提莫，撸毛男被圈粉了！ Token 打赏给小姐姐！比赛里把 Token 质押到小姐姐的专属 Pool，把小姐姐 Re 到榜首！Mess 消耗有了新场景，深刻阐述了「币圈赚钱币圈花，一分别想带回家」的真理。

女神冯提莫

The Goddess Von Timo

5. After a virtuous circle of users and good works is formed, the extension circle can be developed, and then an influential fan club can be created, and various online and offline interactions between Idol and fans can be conducted. As long as there are more users who enjoy the good work, and as long as there are more followers who are engaged, won't there be external revenue such as advertising? That's where the eyeball economy comes in.

6. Why don't girls choose WEB2 platform to sing for profit? First, the current WEB2 platform is red Sea, with a low proportion of moisture; Second, the advantage of WEB3 is that the data is clear, all on the chain, the project side can not fake, the contract can also guarantee the implementation of the data into the girls' accounts, avoiding the need for hidden rules to withdraw cash.

7、WEB2 里的粉丝是要纯付出的，喜欢她就要付出时间或金钱，Idol 回馈给你的是精神上的满足，而不可能是物质上的满足。而作为 WEB3 粉丝的死宅撸毛男，为了 Idol 打赏 Token 或质押 Token ，是有可能物质精神双丰收的！不就是把 Defi 里的流动性引流方法搬过来就好了吗？设想下一个线上比赛，十个小姐姐各自建立了 Pool，粉丝用子币质押代表投票最多的 Pool 可以获得比赛收入的 50%，押中的粉丝就能赚钱了。

I read MMMM's white paper carefully, and there is a separate section on Social networking. I hope this project can smoothly evolve into the social stage.

3.2 Actual product experience of the MMMM

基于 Melody 已经凉凉，瓜友们可以去体验下 MMMM，目前正在进行的第二轮不删档内测（不删档就是说目前赚的 Token MESS 是有效的）是要有邀请码的，我这几天正在体验。本人不算唱歌爱好者，基本不去 K 歌房，就是开车时会听听歌。用了 MMMM 后，反而变成了案头工作之间很好的一个调节休息工具，唱歌练肺活量还出汗，自以为唱了个 S 就是顶级了，后来瓜友说他们随便唱下都是 SS，甚至还有 SSS，然后我才知道 S 不是顶，可能就是及格而已，无地自容。

At present, the function of MMMM is relatively simple, which is to sing to score and then give MESS. I hope that its development progress will not be too fast. With the lessons from the past, it is sometimes faster to take your time.

3.3 How to prevent structural risks of Products

The first structural risk of this kind of product is copyright. As mentioned above, the MMMM project party has made it clear in AMA that it has paid for the copyright. Moreover, we observed that when the partners explained the copyright in Japan and South Korea, the explanation process was very specific and detailed, and most songs in the product use process were co-appeared in Chinese and Korean. In addition, we also saw the official Twitter account of the project and the Japanese partner Composers Association about copyright licensing, and also saw the cooperation with Japanese musician Tetsuya Komuro. Therefore, it is basically judged that MMMM has overcome the copyright risk and can operate for a long time.

The second type of structural risk is preventing cheating. Scripts and cheaters are the most deadly killers of a WEB3 project, leading to unfair overproduction that can accelerate the project into a death spiral. For example, the answer of hook can open many scripts at the same time......

At present, MMMM's anti-cheating mechanism is to sing in public. Although the project has made it clear that it will not be recorded, this mechanism feels a little insecure for WEB3 users who are more concerned about personal privacy. Can you refer to StepN? It is the introduction and improvement of AI anti-cheating technology. What we've seen in the community so far is that the project team is going to improve the system to make the real face into the cute face.

3.4 How Do I Divert Traffic from WEB2

A mature social product, only WEB3 users is far from enough, the focus is on how to guide users from WEB2. From what we know so far, MMMM plans to adopt a "skyweaver" model with no barriers: WEB2 users can directly register an account and use the wallet, which is already built in and can be used whenever they want. At the same time, if WEB2 users are confident about their singing voice, they can use the rental system to rent NFT singing and get mess, which realizes the zero cost of singing and making money in a disguise.

The details of the MMMM project will not be introduced in this paper. There is a picture in the project community to briefly introduce the project:

To read in Chinese, or to learn more, you can see the Gua You Xiaolou project evaluation article: https://medium.com/@wggdao/ day arch one pawn -mmmm-fc1e1de8c5ef

(IV) Summary of the X to N track

The X to Earn track will always be a hot spot. Whether they are investment institutions or game users, they can first judge whether the project is "life application" or "work creation" according to our classification diagram. For example, Readon and Read2N, two products of reading category, used to be reading, but the emphasis of analysis is different, leading to their different categories: Readon uses algorithms to push articles you like, which is similar to Qutiao, so it is classified as "life application category"; The direction of Read2N is the creation platform, which is similar to Qidian.com, so it is classified as "works creation".

If it is "life application class", it will be analyzed from the Angle of C end, specific to several dimensions: the severity of the user entry threshold and the number of participants, whether the cool point is enough to persuade people, the difficulty of private domain traffic.

In the case of "works creation", it will be analyzed from the perspective of B end, including several dimensions: whether the project side has enough funds to cover the foundation cost in the early stage, whether the project side has long-term planning to evolve into social scenes, and where the project side's income actually comes from.