Week 53 on-chain data analysis: the whale has the test plate pressure behavior, and the stampede emotion has eased

The original title: "such as wind and rain, to be like dust | WTR 1.2"

原文作者： WatchToweR Crypto

Review of the week

This week, from Dec. 27, 2022 to Jan. 2, 2023, the high was near $16,968 and the low was near $16,537, a 2.6% swing. Right and left.

Observe the chip distribution chart, in about   $16473  There are a lot of chips nearby, there will be some support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1.  17000 ~ 20000  About   256  Ten thousand pieces;

2.  12000 ~ 16500    About 287  Ten thousand pieces;

• & have spent   Which in the short term does not break 18500 ~ 20000 probability   67 percent.

Important information

Economic news

• & have spent United States

1.              The Chicago PMI rose more than expected to 44.9 in December against expectations of 40 and 37.2, still below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

2.                The 10-year yield rose about 12 basis points this week to close at 3.87 percent. The yield on the 2-year note rose about 11 basis points to close at 4.43 percent.

a.              The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 26 basis points in December, while the 2-year yield rose about 12 basis points.

b.            The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points in the fourth quarter, while the 2-year yield rose about 15 basis points.

c.              In 2022, the 10-year yield rose about 236 basis points and the 2-year yield rose about 370 basis points, both the biggest annual increases since records began in the 1970s, two years in a row and far more than in 2021.

3.              The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, was just below 103.50.

a.              It fell nearly 0.8% for the week, about 2.4% in December and about 7.7% for the fourth quarter.

b.            The annual cumulative growth of about 8.2%, two consecutive years since 2015 the largest annual growth.

4.              The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index, which measures the dollar against 10 other currencies, lost 0.7 percent this week, about 1.8 percent in December and nearly 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

a.              In 2022, it will grow by more than 6.2 percent, two years in a row.

5.              The total number of homes for sale in the four weeks ending Dec. 25 was 18% higher than a year earlier. Homes are currently under contract for an average of about 40 days after listing, the slowest pace since January 2021.

6.              The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.42 percent from 6.27 percent last week, according to Freddie MAC. That's below the annual high of 7 percent set in November.

7.              According to Robert A. Stringer & Amp;, an investment bank Co., saw redemptions of $3.7 billion in non-trading REITs in the third quarter, the highest level of withdrawals in years and a 12-fold increase from the third quarter of 2021.

a.              Real estate funds raised $15.6 billion in the third quarter, the lowest quarterly inflow since 2020.

b.            Blackstone limited redemptions from BRIET, its $69 billion real estate investment fund, and Starwood Capital limited redemptions from SREIT, its $14.6 billion real estate investment trust.

c.              Private property funds managed by BlackRock and CB Richard Ellis have recently taken similar steps to stem outflows.

• Europe

1.              European bond yields have accelerated, with 10-year German yields this week hitting their highest since 2011 and two-year German yields in 2008.

2.              Mr. Putin's order bans exports of Russian oil to customers who abide by price caps set by the West. The ban takes effect Feb. 1 and lasts for five months.

• Asia

1.              The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement that they will extend the trading hours of the inter-bank foreign exchange market to 3 am from January 3, 2023.

a.              Including RMB and foreign exchange spot, forward, swap, currency swap and options all trading varieties.

b.            The changes will cover more trading hours in Asia, Europe and North America.

2.              China's purchasing managers' index declined in December from the previous month, with the PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index at 47.0%, 41.6% and 42.6%, respectively.

• Other

1.              Us oil up 0.88% and cloth oil up 1.67% this week;

a.              December U.S. oil fell 0.36 percent, while crude oil fell 1.22 percent.

b.            Fourth quarter American oil is still tired up about 0.97%, cloth oil tired up 0.9;

c.              In 2022, US oil and cloth rose by 6.71% and 10.45% respectively. For two years in a row, the increase is about 50% less than in 2021.

2.              European gas is down about 8% this week, 47.8% in December and 59.6% in the fourth quarter. For 2022, it is up nearly 8.5%, less than in 2021.

3.              U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures continued to trade mixed.

a.              NYMEX February gasoline futures are up about 3.6% for the week, nearly 4.4% for the fourth quarter and 11.4% for 2022, but not as much as 2021.

b.            NYMEX February natural gas futures are down about 10.1 percent for the week, down about 35.5 percent for the fourth quarter and up about 12.4 percent for 2022, also less than 2021.

4.              Gold futures in New York rose 1.22% this week, 3.77% in December and about 9.2% in the fourth quarter. In 2022, gold futures fell 0.13%, two years in a row and a smaller decline than in 2021.

5.              Global gold demand this year has reached its highest level since 1967, according to the World Gold Council. In the third quarter alone, central banks bought almost 400 tonnes of gold, the highest since quarterly data began in 2000.

Encrypted ecomessaging

1.              U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board: Expected to issue rules in the first half of 2023, it will establish clear accounting and disclosure rules for companies holding bitcoins and other cryptocurrency assets.

2.              Japan's crypto trading platform regulator: has informed its member companies of "relaxation". Token  New rules on listing screening process "take effect immediately. New tokens in non-Japanese markets can be traded without going through a lengthy pre-screening process.

3.              Newly elected Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka. : Consider adopting special B currency as legal tender.

4.              El Salvador, which educates students with the B-coin, aims to teach 250,000 students by 2023 to drive mass adoption of the cryptocurrency.

5.              Fidelity: Apply for trademarks including NFT, Metaverse Investment, virtual real estate investment, cryptocurrency trading, etc.

6.              HSBC: Apply for trademark for digital currency products and services, including Metaverse/NFT  , send, receive, convert and store digital currencies, and facilitate secure payment transactions electronically and provide banking services in the meta-universe.

7.              As of November 2022, the number of cryptocurrency owners worldwide reached 402 million, with an average monthly adoption rate increasing by 2.9%, and it is expected to reach 600 to 800 million owners by 2023.

8.              BN  : The service has more than 120 million users and about 7500 employees. By the end of 2022. BN  Licensed or licensed in 14 countries/territories on 5 continents.

9.              Uniswap  The decentralized trading platform's 3 million individual wallets made more than $620 billion in total transactions in 2022, with 68 million transactions.

Long-term insight: To look at our long-term situation; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral

Intermediate probe: To analyze what stage we are in, how long will we be in this stage, and what situation will we face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the possibility of certain directions and certain events under certain circumstances

Long-term insight

• Halving inventory cycles and long-term investor conditions

• High weight multiple selling pressure

• Long-term to short-term selling pressure ratio

• Mixed coin split address detection status

Return to the internal logic, discuss the inventory cycle problem of "commodity" attribute;

(below   Halving inventory cycles and long-term investor conditions)

• The red range is the average cost of losses for long-term investors;

• Green for halving circulation;

• Orange is the position of long-term investors' chips;

It is worth mentioning that long-term investors will have some losses at the end of every cycle.

Perhaps the total number of profits made by the entire market, a small percentage of excess profits requires more participants to trade in loss chips.

Because the market is not quick to digest all the chips.

And long-term investors will also silently hoard their chips at this time, in the vicinity of half, generally will reach the high level of hoarding.

After a while, they sell their chips.

Historically, the time to halve, which is less than four years, is typically about 3.5 to 3.9 years.

Now, historically, we have both:

1. Long-term investors are piling up new highs

2. Long-term investors face losses on average positions and pay for market profits

At present more than half the arrival of the inventory cycle.

(below   High weight multiple selling pressure)

In order to more clearly distinguish the high weight multiple drop pressure, the low drop pressure range is set to a more obvious contrast color.

The current market's heavy multiple selling pressure has retreated to near historic lows.

(below   Long-term to short-term selling pressure ratio)

This is a measure of the proportion of long-term and short-term selling;

The higher the value, the more long-term investors will sell.

The whole is used to measure the selling pressure breakdown of the market.

In the past week or so of price declines, long-term investors have sold their chips to a one-year high.

Of course, there is also a need for further insight into the relationship between trading volumes.

At present, the overall trading volume of the market is not high, so the impact is more proportional weight than the real pressure on the market.

(below   Mixed coin split address detection state)

• Purple line decline: Growth in the use of mixed coins for splitting

In 2022, with the use of coin mixers and address splitting and multi-address dumping increasing daily, traditional whale address analysis has become difficult.

Therefore, this main study is dedicated to the separate modeling, in order to further observe the use of address splitting and whale coin mixer.

If combined with other redundant variables, this would be a good filtering reminder model.

In late 2017, mid-2019, and the second quarter of 2021, there was a large number of mixers or split addresses being used, as well as an increase.

There are no redundant split addresses being used in this case.

Intermediate probe              

• Online emotional positivity

• speculator sentiment

• Accumulate trend queues

• BTC trend net position

• Net position of Top100 trading platform

• Each address has realized chip distribution -- entity adjustment optimization version

• Stable flux in circulation

• Purchasing power differential

Chain sentiment rating: trading sentiment, speculative sentiment is still being repaired

(below   Network emotional positivity)

At present, it is still in the repair state, but the overall repair speed is relatively slow.

(below   Speculator sentiment)

Medium-term trend market, large market can not be separated from the participation of speculators on the floor, they are also the core of the price boosting force.

Usually, the speculative sentiment in the floor is weak, the overall state will be relatively weak.

From the perspective of the distribution of participants in the market, speculators undoubtedly play an important role in producing a large price rise.

At present, the speculative property is still in the repair state, the trend momentum is still not obvious.

Status rating of each address: weak accumulation, slight pressure of whale

(below   Accumulation trend queue)

The 1k address showed a weak accumulation condition, and the current state lasted for nearly one month. The accumulation state of < 1, 1-10, and 100-1k addresses is in the swing state.

(below   BTC trend net position)

There are still lingering BTC trading platform internal performance of "potential selling pressure" behavior, which will slightly constitute resistance to the rise.

(below   Net position of Top100 trading platform)

Combined with the trading platform trend net position and accumulation trend queue, it is possible that the current part of the "disk stress test" is the whale above 1k.

(below   Each address has realized chip distribution -- entity adjustment optimization version)

More chips at the current price are traded, and fewer remain on the trading platform.

Purchasing power position rating: Slight repair, but no overall purchasing power trend

(below   Stablecoin in circulation)

Stablecoin circulation has seen a certain amount of inflows, and funds have been slow to enter the market, which happened for the first time this year and is currently slowing down.

Explore the purchasing power inside the trading platform.

(below   Purchasing power difference)

Purchasing power has not formed a trend in the trading platform, there may still be a lack of purchasing power in the current market.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

• Option intent to volume ratio

• Derivatives volume

• Implied volatility of options

• Transfer of earnings and losses

• Add addresses and active addresses

• Crystal orange trading platform net position

• Net position of aunt trading platform

• High weight dump pressure

• State of global purchasing power

• Net position on stablecoin trading platform

• Off-chain trading platform data

Derivative rating: risk fell back to neutral, trading state depressed

(below   Derivative risk coefficient)

Derivatives risk moved back above the safe zone yesterday and back to neutral today.

(below   Option intent to volume ratio)

The market from the bearish protection intention, there is not much bearish protection intention, trading volume is not high.

(below   Derivatives volume)

Derivatives traders are stuck in a soft spot, judging by the volume of derivatives traded.

Overall trading volume compared to the previous two months have been sharply down.

(below   Option implied volatility)

Implied volatility has also fallen to very low boundaries, and the space available to sellers from volatility has become scarce.

The lackluster performance has discouraged buyers from placing more bets.

Emotional state rating: stampede sentiment warming, the market back to balance

(below   Transfer of profit and loss)

The stampede mood had fallen into a higher state before and then entered a lower state.

(below   New and active addresses)

The sudden upward movement of previously large numbers of active addresses may be evidence that more money is being pumped into the trading platform, causing selling pressure in the market and, subsequently, lower prices.

Therefore, in the observation of price, the active address instant activity is particularly important.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: accumulation decline, the beginning of the initial selling pressure

(below   Net position of Crystal orange trading platform)

The accumulation of the market has finally reached a weak stage.

This indicates that some addresses are gradually flowing into the trading platform, which is not a good phenomenon and may cause certain pressure on the current market and industry.

For traders, the short term long needs to be treated with more caution.

(below   Net position of E Pacific trading platform)

E Tai trading platform net position is just little changed.

Continue to maintain a relatively slow outflow, but prices may be relatively affected by the broader market, resulting in the same downturn.

(below   High weight throw pressure)

High weight selling pressure has eased slightly from the high level, but the overall selling pressure is less than in previous weeks and the last round.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is low, stable currency is low

(below   State of global purchasing power)

The global purchasing power growth is low, the purchasing power of Europe and the United States is back to decline, and the growth of Asia is slightly sluggish.

(below   USDC trading platform net position)

USDC stablecoins had weak inflows, but overall inflows were not large.

Relative plunge.

(below   USDT trading platform net position)

USDT also has an underlying inflow, which is less negative than before.

Overall, the purchasing power of stablecoins has improved slightly from its previous weak position.

Down chain trading data rating: Low buying intention, low selling intention at $17,000

(below   Coinbase off-chain data)

Before 16000, there was a little purchase intention, but the selling pressure was also more intense at 17000 dollars.

(below   Binance link data)

The overall state is relatively rare, the popularity is greatly reduced, and there is a small amount of purchase intention of $16,000.

(below   Bitfinex data)

After a series of thunderstorms, such as on the FTX trading platform, it has only a tiny amount of purchasing power at 15,880.

Summary of the week:

Summary of message surface:

1.              The total amount of negative interest rates globally has fallen sharply, driven by central banks, from $18.4tn two years ago to $254bn today.

2.              More important for markets now is the search for tightening inflection points. The Fed's first sound of the year and the first rate hike are particularly important, shaping policy expectations for the whole year.

3.              There is no perfect correlation between the release of water and the rise of all assets. The market doesn't raise the price of something that doesn't work just because it has more money. For example, useless leaves do not become expensive leaves just because they have more money.

Similarly, if crypto assets have no value, then the release of water in the past two years will not cause significant volatility. Crypto assets have been spiraling upward for a decade, and it's important to look for the underlying logic.

Water on the market can only serve as a demand amplifier. Once the market level hits, the demand amplifier will kick in again.

Therefore, in anticipation of a turning point in the policy environment, it is crucial to find the underlying logic of assets.

The first 25 percent rate hike, or the expected release of water, will be a good turning point on the right. More revaluation, however, needs to be completed before this redefinition.

Long-term insight on the chain:

1.              From the halving inventory cycle and long-term investors, halving cycle is obvious;

2.              At present, the chips of long-term investors have accumulated a new high, while meeting the average chip of long-term investors into losses;

3.              Only half the effect of inventory cycle time;

4.              High weight multiple pressure return relative safe range;

5.              In the previous week or so of price declines, long-term investors sold their chips to a one-year high, though trading volume was light;

6.              In late 2017, mid-2019, and the second quarter of 2021, there was a large number of mixers or split addresses being used, as well as an increase.

7.              There are no redundant split addresses being used in this case.

• & have spent Market setting:

Macro selling pressure has a certain degree of decline, from the overall chain and inventory cycle point of view, this year is suitable for fixed year.

Mid-chain probe:

1.              The repair speed of trading sentiment is slow;

2.              Speculative sentiment is still being repaired, the trend is not obvious;

3.              The accumulation condition is weak;

4.              There are some "potential selling pressure" retention within the trading platform, but the proportion of the current price retention chips is less;

5.              Whales test the pressure of the plate;

6.              A certain amount of stablecoin in circulation entered the exchange, but did not form a purchasing power trend within the trading platform.

• Market tone setting:

Repair slowdown

From the current situation, the buying has not formed a trend, there is a little resistance, the lack of upward momentum trend.

Strategy suggestion: The bull strategy momentum is not obvious, may still prefer to trade on the left.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1.              Derivatives remain in the doldrums;

2.              Derivatives risk fell back to neutral;

3.              High weight selling pressure just dropped;

4.              Stampede sentiment eased, the market returned to balance;

5.              Market accumulation decline, there is initial selling pressure;

6.              Global buying is low, stablecoin is still low;

7.              The purchase intention of off-chain transaction data is low, and the selling intention is $17,000.

• & have spent                 Which in the short term does not break 18500 ~ 20000 probability   67 percent.

• Market tone setting:

There is less upside and the market is depressed.

Strategy suggestion: Long strategy space is small, and currently more suitable for very narrow space strategy.

Risk warning:

The above are market discussion and exploration, and do not have directional opinions on investment; Please treat carefully and prevent the market black swan risk.

This article is from submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.  

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