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After losing 2022, I reflected on 69 words

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"If Crypto was a dividing line in the history of mankind, 2022 will most likely turn out to be one in the history of cryptography."

Original article by RedphoneCrypto, KOL

Title: 69 Theses for 2023

Leo, BlockBeats

If Crypto was a dividing line in the history of mankind, 2022 will most likely be a dividing line in the history of cryptography. In an article written by well-known crypto KOL RedphoneCrypto, Including the story of his exposure to encryption and some insights from his 10 years in the industry, BlockBeats has compiled the following:

When I bought my first BTC in 2013, I had to print out the paperwork, drive half an hour to the drugstore, pick up my old red phone (with a hard line), call a MoneyGram line to California, and they told me to send $100 to BitInstant, and a few days later, Waiting for BTC to show up in my wallet. Plus, it took a week to download and install BTC Core to access the "future of finance," but I didn't care. BTC affected me and I began to question everything I knew about economics, wealth, power, privacy, psychology, and coordination.

This industry has fascinated me for a decade, a decade that seems to have no meaning to me. How can a few immutable blockchains be so powerful as to sway my thoughts? Now I know it's because Crypto is the defining battleground of our generation. It's a hot headline in the world's media, affecting war, politics, law, culture, sex and even the economy of entire countries. Predictions about the future of encryption have always been numerous, and no one knows where we're going next. I humbly come to you again with a "crypto State of the Art" sheet in my hand (with a few past scars), and let me share some predictions about the future of encryption, my crypto journey, and some of my thoughts as I learn (perhaps rambling is a better description).

If there's a theme to my articles this year, it's this: In 2022, we're lost in the crypto world. Leverage, greed and dishonesty drove us into this mess, and now we are left to "eat our own chickens", returning once again to the basic question: Why are we here? Where are we going? Why is this important?

For those who fall, those who fight, and those who are about to enter.

I've been around Crypto for a decade now, and 2022 has brought me a lot, but the industry has also brought me something I've never felt before: shame, shame for all the 7 million-plus people whose life savings have been stolen and blown away by "young adult children" playing with them.

We're here because Crypto inspired us, but they stole everything, even our reputation, and now we're faced with a choice. We can choose to accept it all, abandon encryption and enter a new realm, or go back to the beginning and build what we should have: A freer world -- a world ruled not by fallible humans, but by transparent, just, unstoppable code.

Here are my 69 ideas:

1: In 2023, Crypto will have more new users than in all previous years combined. In countries plagued by inflation, Crypto adoption will continue to grow. Elsewhere, as Web 2 companies, brands, and games finally integrate NFT, many people don't know or care that they are entering the crypto space.

2: To me, the chart is more important than the price, and while the trend of the curve is poor, all over the world, democracy is failing, with loud collapses, cries for help, and meeks, Crypto provides a lifeline to many people, and it will be more important than ever in the years to come.

3: I've spoken to at least three people whose lives have been directly affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine. I've heard stories of crossing borders on foot late at night, closing bank accounts, donating crypto assets to the unexpectedly homeless,For some, encryption is a game; for others, open, censorship-resistant networks are a matter of life and death.

4: Four trends for 2023:

-DeFi rebuilds CeFi products on the chain

- Enterprise adoption (possibly Amazon, Apple, Google, etc.)

- Macro recession/cash-based capital

- The financialization of NFT and the dramatic expansion of use cases

5: Sometimes goals evolve not in the direction that makes sense for you, but in the direction that makes sense for an adderall user/influencer. Before buying, imagine that you only have 85% of your current IQ.

6: There is too much wasted/overlapping energy in encryption, if you are contributing to a project/chain that is doomed to fail, you can sense its problems, now is the time to cut your losses and move on, there are only so many people in the world who understand this area and power, don't waste your knowledge and skills hanging on to a token that has no prospects, Turn your talent into enough to change the world level.

7: On-chain transactions are "crumbs" and not "bread" per se. I realized this when I saw BTC flowing out of the trading platform before the FTX crash. I thought it was time to be bullish on BTC. In retrospect, many trading platform failures are fraudulent in that they siphon off users' money, assuming the data on the chain is fake or misleading unless proven otherwise.

8: The people who underestimate the courage required to express controversial opinions in public are the ones who say nothing.

9: Many people talk about how long it takes for tech stocks to recover after the dot-com bubble, but what about the few who bought after the bubble burst? The truth is that most of the leading tech stocks rose multiples over the next two years,We'll get a similar but more violent opportunity in 2023 (assuming the bottom hasn't arrived yet), and many small households will turn into whales, and many large whales will be "cannibalized."

10: For those of you reading this, inflation could mean less and less coffee, on the other hand, it could mean shooting squirrels for dinner, 28 countries around the world have inflation rates below 20% (45 have inflation rates above 15%),People everywhere are using crypto assets to feed and protect their families when we can't figure out what to do with regulation.

11: Lots of money won't go to the silent observer.

12: I feel horror when I hear the term "demand destruction," because what it really means is that people are being laid off every day, businesses are on hold, hard-working employees are going to bed hungry, the only thing worse than that is runaway inflation (because it affects appetites more than "demand destruction," which affects the poor most), nonetheless,I don't think the Fed will turn as quickly as many hope, and if the process takes longer and hurts more than expected, the last thing you want to do is "all in," but be careful to keep some assets on hand in case the TradFi market has its FTX moment.

13: Telegram has more than 700 million users, most of them primitive, tech-savvy, privacy-centric futurists who promote what they see as junk Tokens, and now a crypto ecosystem, the Open Network (TON), is growing wild,While TON token isn't getting much attention for now, I expect TON and its NFT to explode.

14: My 2022 looks something like this: Made what seemed to me an awful lot of money, and then, like a greedy pig, I put those assets in Anchor so I had cash to pay my tax bill, and then UST decoupling caused me a huge loss, and if I hadn't been lazy enough to use Orion straddle stablecoins to Anchor, it wouldn't have been so bad, It took a few days to withdraw the UST, and by the time I got it back, it was down 85%, which meant I had to sell other tokens to pay my taxes, at least my tax bill would be smaller this year.

15: Crypto thrives like a bacterium on the membrane between real life and the meta-universe, and every year the membrane grows and it swallows up more culture (from games to music, from finance to art), and no DAO encapsulates the delightful overlap between the two worlds like the PleasrDAO, Call me biased (I participated in the project), but I look at it as a collection, from the legendary Wu Tang Clan's "Once Upon a Time in Shaolin" to a vial of blood from Nadya Tolokonnikova in Pussy Riot, To the computer Jimmy Wells used to write Wikipedia, to the original doge NFT, Snowden NFT, pplpleasr's Uni swap v3 NFT and so on -- a combination of ideas and motherboards, no one knows where Pleasr will go next, but as Willy Wonka said, Jamis Johnson (@PleasrDAO loyalist) likes to say, "We're about to find out."

16: The Crypto industry is like a fragile glass house. As the four Horsemen (Binance, Tether, Silvergate, and Garyscale) gallop through hell on foam warhorses, the regulators crush them like vultures. If any one of them falls, the others will fall with them, bloody, There will be a real opportunity for you to sell everything and come in and buy, and I hope that doesn't happen, but we need to hold fiat money just in case.

17: Digital ownership is one of the greatest innovations of our lifetimes, let the baby boomers tell themselves that regulation, fraud and falling prices will kill the industry, but they will die before Crypto is perfected.

18: Creativity is a very mysterious state, you have a positive attitude to everything, reason is a knife, you can screen which should hold the negative part.

19: The most xenophobic DAO in the world is the Federal Reserve, whose "tokenomics" aims to keep inflation low enough to prevent unrest, but high enough to eliminate government debt and make their friends rich.

20: NFT is searching for meaning, and soon meaning will be given to NFT.

21: Never in history has an industry given the little guy so many opportunities to fool the "sophisticated" investors, as institutions stumble over themselves and exit crypto, we have to be patient to accumulate, one day, we will be color.

22: There is no "drug" more capable of distorting reality than wealth, and I felt its pull during the last bull market. I am grateful for the bear market. Life is a never-ending series of losses, and only by mastering them can you truly grasp victory.

23: Crypto represents a red line in human history: the distinction between life before and life after. If something can be tokenized, then the facts must go along with it, the only question is how quickly.

24: One of the biggest opportunities in crypto remains BTC + DeFi, and soon someone will be eating into this $330 billion pie, and it will be delicious.

25: The only thing that follows the basic trade are 40-year-old stocks that pay 2% a year and you want to apply them to tokens that were issued four months ago?

26: The DAO is a reflection of soulless corporate life and a kind of organisational change enabled by encryption, as technological deflation (and the geographical arbitrage exploited by digital nomads) makes necessities cheaper, a new quest for meaning emerges, and the end result is less loyalty to the company and more loyalty to mission and purpose, and if yours is bad, so will your employees.

27: Lessons learned after SBF:

-Web 3 underutilizes traditional media;

- Low liquidity tokens in ceos and windthrowers do more harm than good to their ecosystems, if you really want the community to grow, let them have your ownership;

- Every lie eats a part of your soul.

28: Facebook, Instagram, and Reddit have all gone into crypto, and right now, NFT is on the cusp of maximum adoption, all Web 2 is accessible (Amazon, Google, etc.), NFT may be parabolic (maybe price), but not foundry, Trading and exposure to new crypto participants.

29: The most prolific users of encryption in the future will not be humans, but AI.

30: With even the word "encryption" tarnished after all the crashes and uncertainties of 2022, NFT adoption rates are likely to soar and the word "encryption" recedes into the background, instead brands will use Web 2 friendly language such as "points; credits; stars and verified ", while DeFi and our small subculture work behind the scenes to power and profit from the infrastructure.

31: DeFi seems to be on hold until the US gets clearer regulatory regulations, a trend that will cause the divide between regulated DeFi and Wild West (unregulated) DeFi to continue to widen (like the divide between table net and deep net or dark net), and a DeFi "synergy" with legal frontiers/use cases may emerge, To move assets between two different systems (much like drugs).

32: Crypto has its own personal and corporate champions, it's time for its political champions to step up, once obscure nations can rewrite their regulations to welcome DAO and DeFi, they can roll out new immigration and tax policies, and one day wake up as giants of the new economy.

33: For years, we have thought that "the institutional system is coming". Now "institutionalisation" is coming as FTX, Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi, etc have been replaced by TradFi (apps like Fidelity, Goldman, ICE, Cash, etc.) reliable, but dry and passionless, expect innovation from the original DeFi and NFT.

34: With Web 2 and TradFi all in crypto, we'll see more crypto projects in 2023 than in previous years combined.

35: Decentralized storage (especially NFT) is finally on the rise. After Meta developed Arweave (AR) for Facebook and Instagram NFT, I suspect many other protocols are starting to gain widespread adoption.

36: The ve Token model stands out in 2022, and protocol own Liquidity (POL) is likely to become an increasingly important moat, expecting more projects to accumulate funding that can be used for better execution, stablecoin support, and use cases we haven't even thought of yet.

37: Everything leads to the Cosmos Application Chain, a powerful new development space, DYDX's move to the Cosmos chain shocked ETH maxis (call me "ETH mostly", as @defigginger said), It also proves that customizable, interoperable application chains make sense, they are very flexible, some application chains are optimized for speed, some for security, some for low/zero costs, etc.

I'm very bullish on two projects in Cosmosverse: @astroport_fi (as a flexible AMM/ liquidity layer for Cosmos) and @mars_protocol (as a credit account primitive designed to bring FTX-like trading experiences directly on the chain) expect great innovation in the app chain space.

38: BTC will always prove that one brave coder can shake the foundations of society.

39: In a few short months, I've gone from almost not using Al directly to using it almost every day (all the art here comes from Stable Diffusion), and I find myself asking philosophical questions that I can't answer:When the sum of all knowledge and skills is available to all, what makes us unique?

40: If you don't feel a little nervous when you trade, don't trade.

41: The cool-headed new money gurus have pulled out of crypto, and with little or no net inflow, you're now in competition with trigger-happy apes who like to bleed, extend the timeline, forget everything for a while, or pull the knife out and fight head-on.

42: Spend less time choosing tokens and more time choosing directions.

43: As a decentralized exchange protocol for local assets (i.e. BTC swap ATOM without going through a trading platform), Thorchain (RUNE) is still my biggest single holding, having sold a lot earlier this year (far less than my holdings), but bought a lot more after the FTX crash, About $1, plus Thorswap (THOR) is one of the most aggressive Thorschain+DEX aggregators in the space, and it's hard to imagine DeFi if it can't rise after the collapse of a CeFi like FTX.

44: The only line I remember from Jurassic World: Reign was: "We're only three meals away from a state of Mayhem?" When food shortages hit, you can see exactly what's going on in people's minds.

45: Honestly, I missed watching the psychological warfare footage from @zhusu, @stablekwon, even @FTX SBF, every industry has heroes and villains, now, we need more heroes to rise.

46: Ease of use trumps everything, that's why Ftx Crypto.com and BlockFi have attracted most users, if DeFi is to dominate the future, it must become easier to use.

47: BTC and ETH are now trading below their 2017 peaks, all the latecomers and mockers who have entered Crypto at any point in the last five years are now in the trough, and prices could go lower from here in the near term (especially if a knight falls), this is a bottoming process I have seen before.

48: Let's observe a moment of silence for the fallen projects of 2022:

-Voyager: 3.5 million

-Celsius: 2 million FTX: 1 million

-BlockFi: 572,000

-Terra: 400,000+

49: Perhaps the biggest shift for me in recent years is to think from a probabilistic perspective, 12 months from now, how likely is XX Token bullish and why? A 60 or 80 percent chance? I will only invest if I am 70% or 80% or more confident of a particular outcome, I will not waste my time on something I am only 55% sure of, and help me measure my buying, for example, if I am 90% sure of something, I should put in a much bigger position than 70% sure.

50:"Effective yield "should not become a trend, but common sense, and if regulators can accept that crypto tokens are different from TradFi securities, encryption will be everywhereAnyway, I expect progress to be made on many projects in 2023.

51: The endgame may be about wallets, the best wallets will eventually integrate everything you have in DeFi, they may become the future jpmorgan, Fidelity, mastercard, Cash App, Venmo, Apple Pay, Google Pay, etc. There is a huge opportunity in wallets,But it's more likely that the likes of Coinbase wallet and Trust wallet will lead the way.

52: I'm optimistic that regulations are coming, they won't be as tough as we thought (after the relatively loose MiCA rules in Europe), if that happens, competition will start, and I also think holding fiat money is a protection against your own stupidity. Ultimately, nothing is impossible, especially if the fiat system is subject to a major overhaul, War or a new pandemic like banning PoW or criminalizing DeFi and DAO is a low probability event, but it's not impossible. If it happens, the winners will certainly be stripped away, and it will be a great opportunity to buy on fear.

53: As Twitter tries to transform itself, I expect it to move to encryption - which is five times harder than Instagram and Facebook. Twitter's user base is already dominated by Cryptobros, and its new CEO, Musk, not only has a background in online payments (via PayPal), he also likes to shout order DOGE. As Musk moves deeper into crypto, I hope he eventually sees the merits of Ethereum, Cosmos, and other chains.

54: The Howe Test should have its own exhibition in a museum, where Asians laugh at the mention of it, South Americans are uninterested and only Americans recoil at it.

55: The effects of inflation are not evenly distributed, and encryption is dangerous no matter what country you look at it from. In inflation-plagued Argentina and Turkey, 33% and 54% respectively claim to have at least one crypto transaction per month (h/t to Bankless), How could the government possibly prevent the adoption of such technology to prevent the starvation of its citizens?

56: Private offerings bore me, they felt elitist bullshit, I dealt with some of them and they were catch-22 situations because there was so much demand for early-stage projects and not enough entrepreneurs were willing to solve the problem, since you can raise money from five strangers, Why waste time raising money from 100,000 strangers? Not only can these five strangers help you along the way, but they're far less likely to Sue you.

57: A very simple way to get early exposure to private deals that you think will change the world: Go for it, this applies to hackathons and incubators, or put together a deck of cards and toss it, if your idea is good and you are motivated, the money will find you and eventually, you will have a lot more tokens/equity than if you were an investor and can join the startup through token allocation, you can not only see how it works but also be a part of it.

58: Two things I liked (but didn't expect) about the private offering: It was an opportunity to brainstorm with smart, brilliant founders; Getting a founder's perspective on the niche market (which I think is probably more valuable than future all-or-nothing financial rewards) because information is and will remain the currency of the space.

59: 5 events I have participated in/am still optimistic about:

Societal:An application chain built specifically for the creation and management of DAOs, with emphasis on the new DApp store tools, is up and running in the Polkadot ecosystem @societal_xyz*

Infinity Keys:A gamification platform that helps brands build challenges and meta-universe missions, similar to Ready Player One. @infinitykeys

TapiocaDAO:A full-chain currency market based on Layer Zero, using Bentobox v2 to earn actual eth revenue @tapioca_dao

Paragon DAO:NFT lending platform, P2E players can use their reputation as collateral to borrow in-game assets at zero cost -- only to repay a percentage of their income; @paragonsDAO

XDEFI Wallet:XDEFI is an extension of a decentralized wallet that allows users to receive, send, store digital assets and connect to any blockchain application; Seamless exchange between protocols, access to DeFi localization features, easy for users to monitor the entire DeFi policy with a single wallet; @xdefi_wallet

60: You don't need to identify certain trends before you start a project, just identify the project early, follow them on twitter, and wait patiently to see what happens.

61: If there's one thing Crypto has taught me, it's that incentives work better than punishments, thousands of miners, node operators, stakeholders, developers, users and founders work together around the world without an HQ or CEO, and if the world needs your project and it fails, your incentives may be blown out of the water.

62: The many anonymous avatars I've seen on Twitter, realizing the gap between my assumptions about them (good or bad) and reality, questioning each post and the intent behind each post -- even this one.

63: One day, humans will look back on our monetary system as a way out for refined egoists (outdated and unfair), and that algorithms (not emotionally complex and changeable humans) should and will eventually dictate our monetary system.

64: The worst fate is that we know encryption will succeed, but fear being knocked out of the race before we reach Valhalla.

65: Two results of the end of the bear market: in the long side bottoming process, eroding your will, forcing you to sneak out of the field like a "snake"; Turning you into a "fire-breathing dragon" that can move on to the next cycle, are you the former or the latter?

66:Another equivalent of "Alpha" is knowledge, which is the easiest way to make money, especially in the crypto space", it is very scarce, rules a vertical chain or ecosystem, becomes a master in it, and through just a few weeks of intense learning, you may know more about a particular sector segment than the richest funds, time-pressed analysts and vest wearing Mbas, and once mastered, can simply use that knowledge to identify the good and the bad of the market.

67: Give me a choice, a strong development team with bad tokenomics, or a bad development team with strong tokenoomics, and I'll tell you it's not a choice at all, you take a strong development team and watch them run.

68: Never forget that there are many blocks with blood on nodes around the world, minted by people who have died or been imprisoned, or who are often afraid of not keeping up with the Crypto car. Are you building a proprietary app on an XX network so you can take a 1% cut of every transaction?

69: The reason they think Crypto will fail is: Crypto needs too much transparency, and we humans like to hide the truth... Not just for others, but for ourselves, encryption keeps us staring at ourselves in the mirror, and power will never be the same.

Dilute us, restrain us, imprison us, intimidate us, punish us, threaten us, imprison us, but we shall not die, because we are beasts of thought, with unmatched vision,The truth is in the chain, and the liar is revealed in the chain.