After the end of Ethereum Merge, will the pledged ETH be sold off?
Original author: Korpi, DeFi Degen
Original compilation: Aisheri, Rhythm BlockBeats
This article is based on the views of DeFi Degen Korpi on his personal social media platform, and Rhythm BlockBeats organizes and translates it as follows:
Some people think that ETH will be smashed after Merge is completed, because 12 million ETH will be unlocked and sold after Merge is completed. But I think this view is wrong for three reasons:
1. The pledged ETH will not be unlocked during the merge process
2. The unlocked ETH will be released slowly
3. The ETH used for pledge is regarded as real estate
1. The pledged ETH will not be unlocked during the merge process
ETH cannot be withdrawn while the merge is in progress. There will also be an upgrade within 6-12 months of the completion of the merger. In other words, the pledged ETH and earnings will not enter the market for a long period of time.
2. The unlocked ETH will be released slowly
Even if the holder can withdraw ETH freely, all ETH cannot be withdrawn immediately. The release process is slow, generally taking months to complete the unlock, and it may even take more than a year.
Because the pledged ETH needs to be withdrawn, the verifier needs to exit, but the number of exits available for each node is limited. There are currently 395,000 validators, and it will take 424 days for them all to exit as long as the system is not updated.
3. The ETH used for pledge is regarded as real estate
I don’t know when the ETH pledge will be proposed, so who would voluntarily pledge under such uncertain circumstances? Undoubtedly an ETH believer.
Most people who stake ETH are long-term investors and they are in no rush to sell, especially now that the price of ETH is lower.
Short-term investors prefer more liquid staking schemes, such as Lido. I used Nansen and Etherscan to find that the proportion of this type of ETH staking is only 35%.
Additionally, 30% of all ETH staked comes from independently run validators. Independently operating validators are complicated, and only those who believe in ETH will do so, and they are even less likely to sell.
Summary:
I don't think the unlocking of ETH will cause a lot of dumping as the unlocking process will take months and will be released slowly, neither will most stakers sell.
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