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After the upgrade of Shanghai, various parties have different views on the future trend of ETH

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It is good to have disagreements about the direction of ETH, but it is worrying when there is no disagreement.

Original title: "After Shapella upgrade, industry experts split on what's next for Ethereum"

Original source: Mary Liu, BitpushNews

The long-awaited Ethereum Shapella upgrade for the crypto community is finally complete.

上海升级后，各方对于 ETH 未来走势观点不一

Biti Terminal data showed Ethereum trading at $1,917 as of 6:30 AM Beijing time on April 13, with volatility of 1.25% over the past 24 hours and little changed in a tight range of $1,863.37 and $1,927.35. Traders are still analyzing what will happen when 18 million pledged Ethereum pieces finally hit the market.

上海升级后，各方对于 ETH 未来走势观点不一

Some observers expect Ethereum prices to plunge after the upgrade as users liquidate their holdings, while others believe the expected rise in selling pressure has already been priced in and the market will rebound after the upgrade on the classic "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" (buy the rumor, sell the news).

抛售压力将很快被消化

A report from Glassnode, a blockchain analytics company, says that there could be around $300 million of ETH selling pressure after the Shanghai upgrade. That may sound like a lot, but according to Glassnode, this selling pressure can be absorbed quickly, according to analysts: "Even in the extreme case of withdrawing and selling the maximum amount of incentives and pledges, the seller's trading volume was still less than the average weekly exchange inflow. Therefore, the conclusion is that even the most extreme case would have an acceptable impact on ETH prices."

According to Glassnode, as the Ethereum protocol has a limit on the number of ETH pledged to be unlocked per day, only 70,000 ETH (about $133 million) "will actually become liquid."

As of midday ET Wednesday, only 1.3 percent of Ethereum verifiers, or 2,400 people, reported exiting blockchain pledges, according to Blockworks Research. "This could indicate little desire to exit, or that most people are waiting until they upgrade," Blockworks Research wrote.

Several industry experts, including Galaxy Digital, said in recent days that selling pressure on some withdrawals would disperse within days.

Galaxy Digital analysts said in a note published earlier this month: "We expect 553,650 ETH to be sold. Amortized over 7 days, this equates to about 1% of daily ETH trading volume (both spot and perpetual) for a week, with our view ranging from no impact to slightly bearish based on the broad risk environment and overall liquidity of Ethereum during the Shanghai upgrade."

Robert Ellison, chief growth officer at Allnodes, an encrypted hosting and pledge platform, spoke to Coindesk. "There is simply no reason or sentiment to rush out of ETH, as most stakeholders are optimistic about the long-term viability of Ethereum and view it as a long-term commitment... The number of validators currently waiting to be activated exceeds the exit queue. Any short-term volatility will be very short-lived, largely due to the commitment of institutions like Kraken, which they have to because of regulatory issues. Even in the event of institutions like Kraken removing pledge services, these stakeholders will move to other services like Allnodes or Rocketpool."

两周内跌破 1,700 美元？

QCP Capital says it's not looking good, its team saying in a Telegram update: We don't see what the bullish case is for this event, as those at the front of the queue may sell spot, while those at the back of the queue will hedge via perpetual contracts/futures if they haven't done so already. In anticipation of this event, bears have moved in, with ETH underperforming BTC in recent weeks. ETH/BTC broke through the key support at 0.658 with potential to move back to 0.0553 as physical selling pressure persisted in an already insufficiently liquid market in the days following Shapella's further bearish price action on ETH, which could also weigh on the broader market ".

Henry Elder, head of decentralized finance at Wave Digital Asset, sees the upgrade as a "sell news" event for liquidity pledge solutions governing tokens such as Ethereum and Lido, platform tokens that have been rallying since early January in anticipation of a hard fork.

上海升级后，各方对于 ETH 未来走势观点不一

Biti Terminal data showed Ethereum trading near $1,910 at the time of writing, up about 60% year-to-date. Lido Finance's governance token, LDO, is up 26 percent since the start of the year. Lido is the largest liquid pledge agreement with around $8.4 billion pledged Ethereum on its platform. Rival Rocket Pool's RPL is up 70 percent since January.

"We should expect withdrawal lines to fill up immediately and last for weeks," Elder said. "It looks like a fulfillment of the 'flood of supply' narrative and the market could sell off." Elder added, "The bulk of withdrawals are likely to come from early individual pledges who are now looking to move to liquid pledge solutions, and early adopters of the now dominant pledge solutions who are looking to move to fewer pledge solutions to increase decentralization."

Laurent Kssis, crypto trading adviser at CEC Capital, said in his tweet that Ethereum had rallied before the upgrade and could come under pressure after successfully implementing the upgrade.

"Traders have 'bought' ahead of the Shanghai upgrade, and if the upgrade is successful, they will sell ETH in the market," Kssis said. Kssis predicted that traders would sell their ETH after the upgrade, and that ETH could fall below $1,700 within two weeks as investors took profits.

While Ethereum has posted double-digit gains this year, it has not performed nearly as well as market leader Bitcoin, which is up more than 70 percent this year.

Short and long-term trends are different, and Matt Lason, chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund Globe 3 Capital, said in his blog that while ETH prices may fall, it should be temporary and not as severe as some have predicted. Lason said he expects ETH to reach $3,300 by the end of the year, citing increased institutional demand for the asset.

According to a February survey by crypto hedge fund firm Nickel Digital Asset Management, two-fifths of the 200 institutions surveyed manage a total of $2.85 trillion in assets, and Ethereum's price is expected to top $2,000 by year's end.