Valuing the OP: Find out how much your OP airdrop is worth
Original author: olimpio.eth
Original compilation: 0x711, Rhythm BlockBeats
This article is based on encrypted KOL olimpio.eth Rhythm BlockBeats compiled and translated opinions on personal social media platforms as follows:
On April 27th, Optimism announced that it will launch its ecological token OP, and posted Token economics and airdrop scheme, this article will try to value OP.
To estimate the OP's price and airdrop value, we need:
1. Analyze OP's Token economics;
2. Compare it with other protocols and related indicators;
3. Analysis based on 3 valuation expectations: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.
Token Economics
Airdrop accounts for 19% of the total: In the first phase of the airdrop plan, 5% will be unlocked directly, and the remaining 14% will be It is up to the DAO to decide how to allocate.
Query the number of airdrops in 1 period
Core contributors (project team) account for 19% of the total.
Seed investors accounted for 17% of the total.
Ecosystem funds account for 25% of the total: the goal is to Funding, partnerships, incubating new protocols to grow the Optimism ecosystem. It is basically a guarantee for the future development of its ecosystem.
Retroactive public product funds account for 20% of the total :
V God once said: "The core principle is very Simplicity: It is easier to agree on what has worked in the past than what will work in the future.”
So basically the retroactive rewards are for projects that have already contributed to the ecosystem. For example, SNX?
Circulation supply
Total OP supply: 4.29 billion pieces
Initial circulation supply: about 32.5% (focus)
Token contract address: https://optimistic.etherscan.io/token/0x4200000000000000000000000000000000000042
OP valuation
Currently, Optimism has a TVL of $483 million. After the token is launched, yield mining activities are likely to emerge, so TVL is expected to grow significantly by then. We should expect this.
Metis and Boba networks have strong similarities with Optimism, they have issued Token, and the circulation accounts for about 30% of the total.
Metis has a market capitalization to TVL ratio of 1.3 and Boba 3.27.
This means Relative to its nominal valuation, Metis has much more "assets under management" than Boba.
If Optimism is valued at a market cap to TVL ratio of 1.3 for Metis,Optimism would have a market cap of $628 million, implying an FDV (fully diluted valuation) of $1.93 billion ). Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $0.45.
If calculated according to the ratio of Boda's market value to TVL 3.27,Optimism will have a market cap of $1.58 billion, implying an FDV of $4.86 billion. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $1.13.
Immutable X
The market capitalization to TVL ratio of 6.72. Doing this would give Optimism a market cap of $3.25 billion, implying a $10 billion FDV. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $2.32.
If you compare AVAX of Avalanche Network , at this time, FDV/TVL needs to be used instead of market value/TVL, because there is a large gap in the proportion of their circulation. AVAX's With an FDV/TVL ratio of 4.94, Optimism would have a market capitalization of $780 million, implying an FDV of $2.4 billion. Meanwhile, the OP's price will be $0.55.
Valuation under different expectations
Pessimistic:
FDV = $500m, OP price $0.11.
Neutral expectations:
FDV = $2 billion, OP price $0.46.
Optimistic:
FDV = $5 billion, OP price $1.16.
Exceeded expectations:
FDV = $20 billion, OP price $4.65.
Note: AVAX's current FDV is $40B, and even with a beat estimate, OP is only half of AVAX's valuation.
In addition, after Token is in circulation,if there is a rapid increase in TVL caused by profitable mining, OP will also be affected by market hype, which is not discussed in this article, but it will definitely happen . This paper mainly estimates OP based on the ratio of FDV to TVL, and different valuation methods will produce different results. The words of the family are for reference only.
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