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Analysis of Stepn and Axie data: Stepn launches Web3 Iron Throne

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The challenge facing Stepn in the future is: Can the cultivation cycle of user habits be faster than the cycle of declining profitability?

Original title: " StepN Bing Publishes Web3 Iron Throne｜StepN&Axie Data Analysis of Old and New Double Kings "

Original author: CryptoOcean, H.Forest Ventures

There is no doubt that Stepn has become the most popular cryptocurrency market in the first quarter of 2022 A popular application, the number of Twitter followers has exceeded the 200,000 mark a few days ago. As the leader of Move to Earn, the design of Stepn's game mechanism has many similarities with Axie, such as the dual Token mechanism, reproduction system, and energy system; but unfortunately, Axie, as the leader of Gamefi in 2021, has already fallen into the trap of adding new users The embarrassing situation of insufficient and hyperinflation.

Both Stepn and Axie were incubated by Binance Launchpad, both have the same resource support. Judging from the current popularity of Stepn, it is extremely Possibly on top of the 2022 Gamefi Iron Throne. Stepn not only draws lessons from Axie Token The economic model has been optimized, for example: increasing Token Consumption scene and Krypton gold scene, strict anti-cheating mechanism and interesting invitation code birth mechanism (note: users can only generate one invitation code every 50 minutes of exercise); also use Web3.0 to solve the long-standing " The last mile" problem, for example, my Crypto degen colleagues don't drive luxury cars, and take the subway to and from work every day just to use Stepn to complete the last mile from the subway station to the company. The design mechanism of Stepn is derived from Axie. Can the future trend of Stepn be deduced by reviewing Axie data? And deduce which stage in the life cycle Stepn is currently in?

Observation Dimension Selection

Recently, the number of Stepn Twitter followers has exceeded 200,000. May wish to start from this point; take Axie and Stepn’s Twitter attention as the starting point, and look at the data of Axie in the same period:

Stepn: On April 8, 2022, the number of Twitter followers will exceed 20w (the current number of Twitter followers is 28w)

Axie: On July 15, 2021, the number of Axie Twitter followers exceeded 20w (the current number of followers is 95w)

Comparison of data in various dimensions

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We take the number of Twitter followers reaching 20W as a time node: we selected the data of Stepn on April 8, 2022 and the data of Axie on July 15, 2021, and obtained from the circulation market value and IEO Rate, DAU, protocol revenue, on-chain data, user distribution, user revenue, etc. are compared.

1. Circulation market value comparison

Axie: on July 15, 2021 , Axie's circulation market value reached 1.4 billion US dollars (the full circulation was 6.2 billion US dollars at the time). Token The price is 23 knives, the hard cap of Axie on Binance launchpad is about 3 million US dollars, the price of IEO is 0.1u, and the yield of IEO is 23000%.

Stepn: Circulation of Stepn on April 8, 2022 The market value is 1.3 billion US dollars (the full circulation was 13.2 billion US dollars at the time), Token The price is 2.2 knives, and the hard cap of Axie on the Binance launchpad is 420w US dollars, Token The price is 0.01u, and the yield of IEO is 22000%.

2. Daily activity comparison

Axie Daily data:

Axie's DAU has grown rapidly since May, from 100,000 in May to October 195w, an increase of nearly 20 times, from the rapid growth stage to the peak, it took about 5-6 months.

Stepn daily activity data:

According to the Stepn data recently released by the founder, currently The daily activity is 20w~30w, which is equivalent to Axie's daily activity in June-July.

3. Protocol Revenue Comparison

Axie: According to Tokenterminal data, in July 2021 On the 15th, Axie's contract income was 8.2 million. However, it should be noted that Axie’s protocol income consists of two parts: 4.25% NFT market transaction fee + reproduction fee. Stepn does not charge breeding fees, so we need to calculate Axie protocol income based on NFT market turnover.

As can be seen from the NFT transaction history data in the figure below, Axie’s NFT market turnover on July 15, 2021 was 30.6m, and the handling fee=4.25% *30.6m = 1.3m.

Stepn: On April 8, 2022, Stepn's single-day agreement income is about 103w US dollars ( But the agreement is charged according to 6% of the market transaction volume)

*Note: As of April 14, Stepn agreement income reached 190w dollars.

Data comparison of the same 20WTwitter followers

< h4>4. Comparison of NFT market transaction volume

Stepn: According to the official statement, in the first quarter of 2022, the transaction royalties (4%) and handling fees will be passed through the in-app NFT market (2%) made a profit of 198,635.62 SOL (approximately US$26,815,807.35), and the total transaction volume was calculated to be approximately 3310593.67 SOL (approximately US$446 million).

Axie: Cryptoslam data display

The transaction volume of Stepn in the first quarter is about 70% of the transaction volume of Axie in July. The market transaction volume of Axie has been stable at more than 500 million US dollars from July to November, and the peak value in August is nearly 850 million US dollars.

5. On-chain data comparison

April 8th, Stepn's game Token The number of GST Holders is 130,000. Considering that Stepn has set up a game account, all user upgrades and mint operations are in this account, so the actual number of GST holders is far more than 130,000. However, due to the inability to obtain accurate data, we Only the growth rates of the two can be compared. As can be seen from the above figure, the growth rate of GST addresses has been above 5% for several consecutive days.

On July 15, 2021, the number of SLP holding addresses is 28.5w ;

The growth rate of SLP addresses has been above 4% for several consecutive days. The growth rate of the currency holding addresses of both is in the stage of rapid growth.

Note: Stepn currently uses an invitation code mechanism, and users can generate an invitation code every 50 minutes of exercise

6. Comparison of user distribution

Stepn's ranking of App store downloads in various countries (fitness category):

According to third-party data, on March 26, 2022, Stepn was launched in Canada, Germany, Australia, and the United Kingdom , the Netherlands and other countries' App store rankings are all outside the top 100.

On April 17, 2022, Stepn's App Store downloads in all countries have entered the list Top 50, even Top 10, among which Japan ranks the highest at No. 5; France ranks No. 9. Of course, due to policies and other reasons, a considerable part of the downloads may actually come from Chinese users, but it can also reflect the popularity of Stepn in developed countries to a certain extent.

In contrast to Axie, users are mainly concentrated in the relatively backward economic areas such as the Philippines and Venezuela; users join only to earn income and maintain life needs, not to be attracted by the game itself, so the game Token hyperinflation is inevitable.

7. User income comparison

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According to the public data query, the per capita GDP of the Philippines in the past three years is about 3500 usd.

Japan's per capita GDP in the past three years is about 40,000 usd, which is Nearly 10 times that of the Philippines.

From the perspective of the distribution of user groups and the comparison of per capita GDP income, Stepn’s user groups are more economically powerful, and the fitness penetration rate in developed countries is 15% -20%, is a huge group. If these users with real needs switch to Stepn, then Stepn has the opportunity to become a traffic portal connecting the traditional world and the encrypted world.

Summary

By comparing the above data, we can find that Stepn and Axie in each dimension The data are all strikingly similar. The only difference comes from the distribution of user groups. Compared with Axie, Stepn’s user groups are of higher quality, which means that Stepn is fundamentally different from Axie. While getting rewards, you find that your needs are also met, so as Stepn product iterations become more perfect, user stickiness will also be greatly improved. The challenge facing Stepn in the future is: Can the cultivation cycle of user habits be faster than the cycle of declining profitability? If the rate of return returns to the mean and there are still a large number of users who love Stepn, then this app may become an epoch-making work for Web3.