Chain knowledge | no musk is rich, to buy the currency can only be leek?

Looking back at the development of Bitcoin in just over 10 years, it has grown from an extremely niche geek product to the top asset allocation on Wall Street. The creation of Bitcoin is successful enough that a network that no one can control has been running for 10 years under the words "scam," "game," and "fraud."

In the outside world can only pay attention to the appearance of the boom and crash, the core of Bitcoin and blockchain has already changed.

More people can only pay attention to the price fluctuations of Bitcoin, but still don't understand the investment logic of Bitcoin; More users outside the circle do not know what changes have taken place in the block chain in just a few years, do not know that the financial field on the block chain has begun to attract the attention of the traditional people, and do not know that the smell of the top Internet capital has already touched the new things on the chain.

In order to allow users outside the circle to have a more comprehensive and objective understanding of Bitcoin, the blockchain industry, and the imagination space brought by this field, Tencent News and RoutinBlockBeats jointly launched the "New Knowledge on the Chain" column. In the 8th issue of the column, you can learn about the professionals' interpretation of Bitcoin, the discussion of the central bank's digital currency DCEP, and the popularity of various new discoveries in the blockchain field in the "New Knowledge on the Chain".

On the evening of March 4, the first "New Knowledge on the Chain" program was launched, with the theme "If you don't have Musk's money, you can only be a leek if you buy Bitcoin?" In this event, Yu Jianing, the rotating chairman of the Blockchain Special Committee of China Communications Industry Association and the president of Huobi University, and Cai Kailong, a famous financial commentator and founder of Houlang Finance of Kailong, were invited as guests. Zhang Shuhao, the executive editor of Ru Blockbeats, hosted the event.

The following is a transcript of the dialogue:

The host Bryan chang: global capital markets in June after walked out of a deep V curve, the currency from October opens the continue into the present bull market, up to now the currency of the noun is not something new, water in the whole world, especially the water is very, very serious cases, the currency with continued soaring prices, and super super rare capital market volatility, became like domestic microblog, or as a foreign social media heat twitter search, the microblog hot search light, slump, jumped the word on dozens of times.

Now to the market value of the currency has reached the trillions of dollars, and tesla, with equal of Internet technology giant Google, but until now also not everyone recognized logic and its value of the currency, the theme of this period we want to talk about the currency, so had invited Yu Jianing Cai Kailong teachers and teachers.

First, please introduce yourself to two distinguished guests. Mr. Yu came first.

Yu Jianing:Thank you, Mr. Zhang. Tencent news friends, rhythm BlockBeats friend everybody is good, I am Yu Jianing, I had been working in national ministries and commissions of banking institutions, the ministry of industry and information center before, when the director of the institute industrial economy, 2018 in August I calculate all the blocks in chain industry, because I actually observed block chain industry for many years, but really started in 2018 to enter the industry began to work, entrepreneurship, and then started the fire currency university, began to make block chain education, to now also have two years time.

Basically we currently focus areas is how to block chain at the bottom of the ideas and logic are derived, let more people understand the value of block chain, can let more people to find a right position to hug block chain industry, less on pit, little detours, we always believe that block chain is the most important areas of science and technology in the future, digital assets is one of the most core assets form, block chain thinking everyone will become a professional development process indispensable thinking mode, we just want to be a block chain thinking maker, we have been efforts to this field, thank you.

Cai Kailong:I have some overlap with the teacher, I at that time, 2017 COINS, the fire we is older, and then I come out, do your own media now created after the wave of finance and economics, the main is to do some the popularization of the knowledge of the business, and provide some more professional and in-depth financial reviews, true identity is not from the media, a financial commentator, also in renmin university of China financial institute of science and technology as a senior researcher.

In fact, I think the digital currency has been bullish on it. When I was working in Deutsche Bank in 2007, 2008, I opened the Wall Street Journal one day and saw someone say that Bitcoin is equal to US dollars, and then went to the Wall Street Street. This is very impressive to me. Since then, I have been focusing on digital currency and blockchain, and also joined Huobi as chief strategy officer in 2017 during the last big bitcoin bull market to expand overseas.

Therefore, President Yu mainly aims to promote the popularization of blockchain, while Houlang Finance aims to provide professional and in-depth knowledge of digital currency, so that everyone can understand its value and the significance of its existence. You can even capture it and get paid off in these bull markets.

Host Zhang Shuhao: Thank you. Mr. Cai also said why he pays attention to Bitcoin and enters the block chain circle. I would like to hear why Mr. Yu Jianing pays attention to Bitcoin.

Yu Jianing:Because my previous career development has been working in the banking institutions of the Ministry of State. At the same time, the micro, small and medium enterprises are still facing financing difficulties, financing and so on a series of problems, but in fact the COINS from 09 to almost 14 years, only five years, we all feel seems not by the spectrum, there is no one management, countless miners mining common operations of the world's a system that has not been down, no big mistakes, may have arisen in the very early some hacker attacks, has been very smooth and safe behind, provides a very effective convenient payment, at least, so at that time. So it was pretty impressive.

Another thing, I think it provides a feasibility of this kind of property form, it in the past we protect everyone is through the legal system of property, or through a variety of principal-agent relationship to protect our property, but in fact the property protection is too complex, and ultimately proved problems emerge in endlessly, risk events.

However, Bitcoin can be used in a very simple way, which can make the problem of property right confirmation of who owns the Bitcoin in the end be solved very clearly. At the same time, this is becoming very smooth, so I think it does provide a completely different form of property and a way of protecting property than we've seen before. Of course, this so-called decentralized organization is also a higher dimensional, more advanced form of organization, at least we have not seen in the past. I was talking to people early on about blockchain, about Bitcoin, and I said Bitcoin if you lose your private key, nobody can get it back for you. A lot of people do not understand, including our family do not understand, say who opened the door, you look for who to go, help you charge reset.

I say no one can help me to reset, this is difficult to understand, but really understand after will feel this thing too amazing, really feel, I come back from the next era through really understand, really feel is not the product of this era, so I was more research more fascinating, but also feel the combination of science and technology and financial is inevitable. So I decided to pay more and more attention to blockchain.

Later after I have been focus on the industry, published in 2017, one of the more thorough development, some of the ideas put forward the idea of industry chain block, puts forward the concept of block chain assigned to the real economy, now the concept has become the industry consensus, or the social from all walks of life is accepted point of view, and at the same time, I think basically like the rise of the dial Defi also let fall the logic of industry chain block, block the combination of the chain and industry is not far away, so how do you say?

From the root, the value of Bitcoin is not simple, how to put it? I thinkThe value on the bitcoin root is definitely not the value of speculation, but represents the asset form of the future, brings the organization way of the future, represents the business logic of pursuing the future, and then is also a form of wealth of the future.So from this perspective, the research focus on COINS I think the key is not that simple to see the value of it, today, tomorrow is down, the day after tomorrow has risen again, these things is a long-term, in the long history may not be important, you want to understand is the logic behind deep change, may in the longer term financial grasp science and technology, or the digital financial brings the change of dividends.

Zhang Shuhao: Thank you, Mr. Yu. Mr. Yu intended to comb the story of his own entry into the circle, but in fact, he has combed the features of Bitcoin's functions, which are different from traditional finance. I get the distinct sense that you are as excited about discovering bitcoin as you were about discovering the iPhone in 2007.

Yu Jianing: Yes.

Zhang Shuhao: The theme of our new knowledge on the chain is what is the investment value of Bitcoin after it reaches 50,000 US dollars. We will discuss from this point next. After this bull market to this point, institutions will buy bitcoin, and we see ARK, now the Queen of Wall Street's ARK, they have 4% of their positions in bitcoin. Maybe you don't know what 4% is, right? For ARK, 4% is the second largest position. Some listed companies like Tesla used 1.5 billion dollars, which is equivalent to 8% cash to buy Bitcoin. KOL of traditional finance invested in Bitcoin. Take Dan Bin for example, it is now that A-share Moutai has become the biggest profit maker of private equity fund. Their attitude and comments on Bitcoin have changed differently.

I want to ask two guests, whether there is the property of the currency changes, before we speak COINS, its properties can be lag properties, the white paper on it is an electronic currency, and stored for a period of time we say it is value, because it has been rising, now we can still use the attribute definition or locate COINS? Or should we have a new definition of bitcoin?

Cai Kailong: I thinkBitcoin doesn't have many payment properties anymore. Because everyone knows that if you want to pay, first of all, the price of it should be stable. You can't buy today with a price of one bitcoin, and tomorrow it goes up by 20%. Do you need to change your price? Because the prices of goods haven't changed that much, the pillars of what you're measuring have changed that much. In fact, now Bitcoin has almost no property of payment, so at present we are more to its investment property, or to say its value property, that is, we say investment. But there are also a lot of people who are speculative, soI have the property of mixing speculation with investment, a kind of hybrid store of value.

Now it is more and more obvious to see inflation, which is inflation. In fact, everything is rising recently, and liquidity is very rich, because the Federal Reserve is releasing water, unlimited amount of water, central banks all over the world are also releasing water, at this time almost all assets are rising. Everyone expects inflation to rise because America's ten-year Treasury bond has risen to a one-year high of 1.6 per cent.

This shows that people are very worried about inflation. Since all the liquidity is abundant, what assets to buy can best preserve the value of inflation? The choice has to be Bitcoin. Why? It's limited, it's not like the supply of other products is going to grow indefinitely or it's going to grow all the time. Since Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, it has a high anti-inflation performance. Therefore, I think it has more investment properties. Among the investment properties, the anti-inflation and anti-excess liquidity functions are very strong.

And that's why you see a lot of investment institutions, AKR, Tesla, even traditional financial institutions that will give these high net worth clients, these big funds a little bit of bitcoin as a good hedge against inflation, of course, because of the history of the Bitcoin boom. Because when it goes up everybody has this mentality, I'm not just outperforming inflation, I'm outperforming SNP, I'm outperforming tech, so why don't I allocate some? So now I think there are more investment attributes.

Host Zhang Shuhao: I understand, Mr. Cai thinks that Bitcoin is limited by 21 million total amount, and then some of it is understood from the value store. What about Mr. Yu?

Yu Jianing:In fact, using Bitcoin as payment is not a new concept. The white paper of Bitcoin is indeed called a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. At the beginning, people also understood it as electronic cash. But that failed from 2012 to 2014. I clearly remember that round in 2014, it was often reported that Dell supported Bitcoin payment today, and Microsoft supported it tomorrow, and one more company supported it, and Bitcoin rose a round. I don't know if it is now supported or not, but I guess it certainly is not supported anymore. And is anyone using it? I think very few people are using bitcoin for micropayments.

But we just said that it is not suitable for payment, Mr. Cai explained very clearly, I don't have to explain. May now be the payment or the bank contraction currency implementation to pay this way, but if from the point of international large calculation, this is another aspect of the problem, I think the currency or very likely as such a tool, because actually this wave of the so-called inflation is not simple, I think is not simply a problem of inflation, is the global currency drain far-reaching impact.

I think one of them is that we're seeing a decline in the dollar's role in the international settlement, because this unrestrained flow of the dollar has largely released inflationary pressure around the world. But there is also a sense that the stability of the dollar, or its role in international settlement, is undermining itself. In the future, won't sovereign funds between countries start hoarding bitcoins like these big companies? Some international trade between countries,Will commodities, in particular, start to be settled in bitcoin?

I think it's still possible. This is not a small payment, but a large settlement. For example, Citibank also issued a report these days, in which it predicted that Bitcoin might become a settlement asset or a settlement currency for global bulk commodity trade in about seven years.

To be honest, much like today's gold, or the IMF's SDK, Special Drawing Rights, it can't be used for day-to-day payments, but it can be used for international settlement. Before that can happen, the first thing that needs to be solved is how to get into the asset reserves of each country, but I don't think that's far off, because we saw last year that Iran issued a law that requires all mines operating in Iran to sell their bitcoin to the Central Bank of Iran.

It's like mining in Iran, and you have to settle with the Central Bank of Iran, and of course the Central Bank of Iran doesn't buy it for display or speculation, but for some international trade as a kind of national reserve. Of course, Iran has its own unique circumstances, so it may be difficult to explain, but I think more and more countries in the so-called economic regionalization, or in the case of the elimination of the dollar is likely to make a similar choice.

I think it's also possible that this wave of bitcoin is far from being said, or even just an appetizer, and that the real big head is currently only available to public companies. A number of publicly traded companies and large institutions have used their custodian businesses to buy bitcoin, among other assets. But Tesla disclosed it in a relatively high profile. Many companies bought it and made a fortune quietly. They didn't disclose it, but it was just an appetizer, just the first step. JPMorgan, for example, owns a significant stake in it, and various financial institutions are starting to stockpile.

Sovereign funds also must begin next will keep up with the wave, so just said, the logic of the currency used in international settlement is not far away, but actually I think this is the currency of a layer of logic, CAI teacher speak just now important logic of inflation, the other is a layer of international reserves, is the national reserves and international settlement. There is, of course, a layer of logic that is arguably the native asset of the digital world.

If we imagine that a lot of people block chain industry is approximately equal to the Internet in the 90 s, if we back to the 90 s of the Internet, we found that the Internet is not a settlement with fiat, but with the Internet settlement currency, we will find is that as more economic activity on the Internet, there will be more some, although the migration of economic activities, use the Internet to monetary demand will be more and more big, Internet currency is more and more valuable, original in offline sell things moved to taobao sell, this is the process for the Internet currency can assign.

But there is no doubt that the Internet era did not choose to do so, the blockchain era has chosen to do so. Almost all public chains cannot be separated from tokens, and cannot be separated from internal crypto assets, or digital assets. But these assets are essentially going to become more and more valuable in the future if we believe that blockchain, like the Internet, is going to become more and more popular and more and more integrated with the industry. This Bitcoin is actually quite unique to some extent. It is different from those tokens, but it can be consistent with other public chain tokens, the exchange environment of public chain tokens, or the exchange environment of block chain.

If we want to do business with all countries in the world, we must not reserve all the currencies of all countries in the world. It is too complicated to manage. Therefore, we will reserve a general equivalent currency or an international currency. So when is the general equivalent of the digital world, or an international currency?

Bitcoin, of course. In fact, we see, for example, Bitcoin now, but you can also understand that, if you look at the exchange rate between Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's not that volatile, you just see a big fluctuation between Bitcoin and the US dollar, you can also think that the US dollar is falling. In the future, everyone thinks that economic activities are not offline and will be carried out on the chain, so the currency on the reserve chain first. The logic is easy to understand. If you want to go on the chain, you may reserve digital assets first, and you don't know which chain to reserve digital assets, so I reserve them first.

There's another important logic to it. Why is Bitcoin so unique? Why do other digital assets dominate? Because it monopolizes a core problem, it monopolizes the role of a channel for the transformation of wealth or value from the atomic world to the digital world through the mechanism of mining. Because we all know that mining bitcoin consumes electricity, but electricity consumption has the value of electricity consumption. However, if human beings wait for the next "bitcoin" and consume so much electricity, they cannot afford to wait for another project.

So I think to make a mining coin, to make a PoW coin, the monopoly of Bitcoin under this logic, the monopoly of PoW or mining under this logic is strengthening. In this way, it almost occupies a fundamental logic, fundamental value channel of the so-called value transformation from the atomic world to the digital world, so it has a unique role in the world itself, that's its property. The bottom line is still the store of value, the capture of value, but we're going to understand it, probably at many levels, the computational layer of the future interpretation, the general equivalent of the digital world, including inflation-resistant digital gold and a whole host of properties.

Cai Kailong:I would like to add that I quite agree with several points that President Yu said, including primary assets, including being a large institution, but I have a different opinion on one point, which is national sovereignty, or international settlement. I think this is a little too far away. Why?Bitcoin hasn't really been subject to this kind of regulation in big countries, or that regulation hasn't really accepted itAs a reserve of national sovereignty, or as a settlement between countries, the first step you take is to be regulated. And if you look at the stock prices around the world, even in the United States, which is so open, Yellen, and the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, they were very cautious. I don't want to talk about exceptional countries, like Iran and North Korea, that would want to use Bitcoin, because after all, it's under the hegemony of the dollar, so if you look at the long term, I don't think it's easy. And you can take a very obvious case to see how hot Libra was a few years ago. The transnational coins made by such a big company were suppressed by the regulations of various countries. It is very difficult for a grey Bitcoin without supervision to become an international reserve currency, or to carry out large transactions. I think that's overly optimistic.

There are many alternative, such as the central bank digital currency, such as specific drawing rights (SDRS), these are the perfect alternative to national sovereignty, stored value or between the international commodity trading settlement currency, so, I personally think that the currency to become national sovereignty in currency, or international settlement is a distant prospect, etc which day it came to the attention of regulation, can compare the reality.

Zhang Shuhao: Of course, the first two teachers do not recognize, that is, has abandoned the so-called most original payment attributes of Bitcoin, have mentioned the store of value. Of course, when it comes to cross-border settlement, it is still far away, including the report of Citibank, which is one of the largest banks in the United States, one of the oldest banks, and the report they put up did not say that cross-border settlement can be achieved now, it is certainly impossible.

They mentioned seven years, but seven years is a very short time. It has been more than 20 years since the Internet developed. But this is an assumption, in a sense, the thinking just now, what Mr. Yu put forward is already a little bit from the standard of thinking, if thinking from the currency standard may be a direction, or a completely new point of view.

I want to ask next surge is plunging for everyone's influence is very big, outside users they pay close attention to more is the price of the external performance, boom was the last time out, slump will be the last time out, including the recent a few days ago, the currency may one day fell 20%, causing the encrypt all the fake money market, or any other currency, you don't understand the currency by 30%, 40%, 50% of the percentage fall, blowing up is 30 billion yuan. This is the highest in encryption monetary history one day, there is a very interesting phenomenon, the market value of the currency has reached $one trillion, this can be in global assets, and to the company, assets of the top 10, and even the top five, tesla also one trillion, Google more than $ten thousand, they cannot be in a day, 24 hours in more than 20% of the volatility. In the same market value of the volume of bitcoin why there are such drastic fluctuations?

Yu Jianing:I find it hard to explain the bubble theory in terms of currency assets, or crypto assets like Bitcoin. So one recently came upTheory of water levelIt should be said that Bitcoin is now a $1 trillion asset class, which is not small. However, if we put the whole digital asset class together, the largest caliber is only around $2 trillion, maybe less than 1.6 trillion. What most people think is mainstream, or even interesting, is something around $1.6 trillion. So if you do a big class of assets, only 1.6 trillion, it is still a small amount. So, we can think of it as, we seem to be swimming in a well, everyone is swimming in the well, the well mouth is very narrow, a little water from the outside, and soon the surface of the water is up. Then if the water goes a little bit, the paper goes down quickly.

And since the entire asset class itself is very small, you can see that as soon as you say external money comes in, everything goes up. Once you say that external capital is withdrawn, everything is going to go down, which is basically and I think it probably tells you a couple of things, one is that the ability of the industry to create assets is not enough. Because ideally it would gradually face more and more water, its mouth would get wider and wider, changing from a well into a pond, into a lake and into the sea. Its water level has increased, but not so much that it is a healthier state. It has more assets, it attracts more capital.

But the industry is so new, and there are so many more problems in terms of technology and everything, that it doesn't have the ability to spin off and create new valuable assets to absorb the water from the outside. So when the water came, the capital came to the market and found that there was really nothing to buy. Thinking how good the world of blockchain was, it was found that only 30% to 50% of the assets in the list could still be looked at, and the assets in the future were all ultra-high risk. Even for the top 30%, the top 50%, the risk is not low, it's big.

We have No choice but to buy No.1 asset bitcoin. If you think about an asset class, let's say it's going to be a stock, and all of us are betting on that one stock, the iPhone, then it's going to go up and down,The main reason is that there are too few valuable assets in the industry.

So as soon as the water comes in, the water level changes, and then it goes up and down and makes the market very volatile. But I think it's also the core of the future of blockchain industry,Why do you think DEFI is promising? Because it is promising to create more valuable assets, to make this mouth bigger and bigger, to turn this industry into a pond, a lake and an ocean. It's a logic.

Plus, Bitcoin is still too young. Although what you said is this tesla, but ranked in front of the science and technology company, they are much older than the currency of the company, they also experience a lot of callable bull/bear contracts, investors cognitive also more mature, in the field of COINS or more early, he is gold, to mark the future next target should be 10 trillion, 10 trillion there will be more after the goal, or in the early, early high volatility is normal. To tell you the truth, if you look at it in absolute value, the drop of 10,000 dollars is really scary. If you look at it in relative value, the increase between 20% and 30%, I think it is normal, which is also a frequent occurrence.

Cai Kailong:It just so happened that the last sentence of the teacher came to the point that I want to raise,Never look at the rise and fall of digital currencies in absolute terms. Because it was meaningless, at that time I first encountered bitcoin was 1 US dollar, and ten months later it rose 100 US dollars, and the absolute value was only 99 US dollars. However, if you buy it 100 times, the percentage is 10,000 percent, so you can't use the absolute value to see the decline of digital currency. The layman, or the person who is not the coin circle may be surprised to see this kind of rise and fall, 20% or 30%, but in fact the coin circle is everywhere, it has been everywhere in its history. For example, a while ago, it rose from 30,000 to 40,000, 40,000 to 50,000, and 50,000 to 58,000.

There is a front-line newspaper and financial media will often interview me, more than 40,000 to ask me once, more than 50,000 to ask me once, and then three days later to ask me the reason, I told you not to ask me the reason, this is very normal. Every day asked me what is the reason for this breakthrough, I said I cooperate with you, I tried to think, but this is very normal. So the real coin circle people won't take the absolute value too seriously,Will take a fancy to relative value.

Why don't we look at the absolute value in the coin circle? Because most importantly,Bitcoin does not have a fair value systemBecause I am now doing academic research on digital currency and I am also involved in it, no one in the academia or industry can come up with a recognized valuation standard, so its price is floating everywhere. There is no value to do rigging, and the price is floating everywhere. Is 50,000 (US dollars) expensive? Do you think 40,000 (US dollars) is expensive? Last year it dropped to 3000 dollars. Do you think 3000 dollars is cheap? No one dares to buy, so, because it does not have a value of riveting, so you do not look at the absolute value, absolute value has no meaning, only relative value. So when high you think it will rise again, when low you think it will fall again dare not buy.

Because you only look at the relative value, in the digital currency world, if there is no mature riveting system, you are not to look at the absolute value of it. It's just like Tesla, how many cars Tesla produces, how many cars, how much profit, how much cost can be calculated. Using the traditional financial system to do a conversion and valuation, you probably know where the valuation is, because it can't go up by 20% a day, because its output can't suddenly go up by 20% a day, neither is it a god, nor is it created out of nowhere. So it's just the nature of Bitcoin that makes us look at the price,Never use absolute values. This is the first reason for the boom and bust.

The second reason, you go to market to buy shares, will you through regulation, through certification, after a lot of, what is the reserve leverage and what to do, but in the digital currency in the world, anyone can use leverage, anyone can open an account, because it is a cross-border, relatively full scale has not been included in the formal strict regulation.So there was a lot of leverage, and that was one of the reasons for the boom and bust.

The third reason is the abundance of retail investors,That's because institutional customers don't make up the vast majority of Bitcoin customers at the moment. However, in traditional finance, the US stock market is actually dominated by institutions, which use mature valuation and mature risk control. However, there are not many institutions involved in risk control in our digital currency circle. Therefore, institutions are an anchor, so the more institutions come in, I say the rise and fall will be less and less. Before 2017, institutions had not yet come in. They could rise by 200% in a day and 100 times in a month. At that time, institutions had not yet come in, but it is unlikely that they will rise by twice in a day.

So three reasons for the boom and bust, the first can only be used in absolute value, not relative value, because Bitcoin does not have a price system of valuation. Third, institutions are still in the minority, while retail investors are in the majority. Instead of chasing after the high, people chase after the high, and sell aggressively when falling. This is the range of the rise and fall.

Behind the host Bryan chang: understand, actually wanted the two views are more pure consider in the secondary market change, two teachers unified point of view is this thing on the macroscopic, this product, the goods is relatively new, so we use the absolute value, rather than with the real Numbers to consider its price fluctuations.

Here's a question. The other day Bill Gates, the two founders of Microsoft, was talking about bitcoin in a CNBC interview. And then he mentioned a point about the risk that Bitcoin poses to retail investors, and I remember his exact words were that there are no people with as much money as Elon Musk, or people with as much money as Elon Musk to do Bitcoin. Why do the two teachers think Bill Gates has such views?

Yu Jianing:I don't think I have published much on Bitcoin and blockchain. I mentioned blockchain quite a few years ago and it was quite positive. However, I think what he said is still right. This industry is indeed a high-risk industry. In particular, many of my relatives and friends in North America have come to ask me about the relevant situation in this wave.

Because this industry is really different from other things, on the one hand, it is very new, the regulation is not enough, there are all kinds of assets in it, except for Bitcoin, the digital assets themselves may be more immature, and there are even a lot of fraudulent assets, so the risk is huge. If a lot of people don't see the risk and just think they make money, they may not make money and lose a lot of money in the end, that's a very, very big risk. I think Bill Gates' reminder is also right. In fact, anyone who wants to enter this industry should first do research and make deep thinking. It is clear that only after you have mastered the thinking of blockchain can you start to make some investment, or do some participation and configuration.

On the other hand, as I think I reminded you, including in my New Year's Eve speech,Don't rush in when you see a bull market coming. It's not rationalI think it would be a more rational choice to study and research for at least 6 months before considering other ways of participation. A lot of people in the comments section are also asking how to buy and so on. I think you should first research and study, first do not come up to participate, this is definitely not a good choice, very risky.

On the other hand,It may also be that the truly rich and retail focus is different. Because blockchain does have a benefit that it lowers the whole investment threshold, because for example, we think there were a lot of companies on the Internet at that time, like Alibaba and Tencent. Many people even knew that the company was great at that time, but is it possible for you to invest? Impossible, I take 1000 yuan to seek Ma Yun investment, can Ma Yun want? Ma couldn't have asked for that money, even in the early days. However, blockchain has advantages. It does reduce the threshold to participate in the construction process of these great enterprises or great projects in the future by means of digital finance to a large extent. It is indeed possible for ordinary people to spend 100 yuan to participate in the construction of Alibaba on the future blockchain.

But, because it's an early stage investment, the capital market companies are already very mature, just very sound. It's true that the risk is relatively small, but if it's an early stage angel investment, the risk is very large. A lot of people don't know what they're doing. They don't know that they're making a very early stage, very high risk investment. They're just looking at the returns.

Cai Kailong:I think in the teacher's answer is very good, I will not repeat. Market risk, we generally see bitcoin as a unit in the look, in fact, look inside the circle, what is the smallest unit of bitcoin, in order to commemorate Nakamoto, the minimum unit is one of the nine decimal point of 0, which is almost one millionth, bitcoin can be divided to the minimum is one millionth.

It mean, you can go to buy small, so it is 0.0003 points, you can buy a the smallest unit of currency, if you want to go to participate in a moment, want to know, want to involve, feel the future of science and technology, the future of the monetary system pioneer a try, you can get a small money, 10, 100 yuan can buy. Although the risk is very big, but as long as your limit is controlled well, can participate completely. So I don't quite agree with Bill Gates, he's talking about investments, he's talking about big investments, only millionaires, billionaires can take that risk, butIt's okay for you to try as an ordinary person, as long as you control the total amount.

Zhang Shuhao: Thank you very much for sharing this point of view with Mr. Yu and Mr. Cai. Of course, Bill Gates himself has just changed his attitude toward this currency. He has this reminder, and he certainly has his own reason from his point of view.

Next, I would like to ask the question that the majority of investors are particularly concerned about. Now Bitcoin has reached 50,000 US dollars each, and its market value has reached one trillion US dollars. Can Bitcoin still enter the market?

Yu Jianing: This is a very important question.On several dimensions, there is no question that the stakes are much higher now than they were a few months ago.

A few months ago, to be honest, a few thousand dollars was too cheap. I didn't think there was any risk at all, but now that the price has gone up more than 10 times, the short-term risk is very high. Will there be a pullback in the future?

From now on to push back 12 months, for example, there is a callback to the following 50,000, to more than 40,000, or even more than 30,000 cases are some. So if you really want to enter, really do not mean to enter right away, you first look for a feeling, if you do not even understand all aspects of the process, you come up to take a lot of money to add leverage, it must be very irrational, so at this stage can first look for a feeling.

I think there are a lot of opportunities in the future.But it's certainly worth the admission in the long run. If you think about bitcoin, you don't have to think about it in terms of your life cycle, you have to think about what's bitcoin going to be like in 10 years, 100 years? I think we're going to see a hundred years from now that most of the companies aren't around. Most of the so-called blue chips are dead. Because the original seven stocks in the Dow 100 years ago, for example, are now only one or two, and most of the best stocks of the time are dead. But Bitcoin is a way of going through this economic cycle, and it's kind of a ticket to the digital future, and in fact to the extent that you think after a hundred years, maybe status and role really might be like how do I put it?

Give your child if you leave a set of real estate in Beijing he will be very happy, Beijing house will have appreciation, leaving a commemorative COINS, but if he will find that he has this commemorative COINS, he can be better business in the digital world, better use of all kinds of block chain services, can be better to navigate in the digital ocean, but there is no this commemorative COINS, he may be in the digital world economic activity will be some limitations.

So I think, think about the currency, or is the time to think about the value of the related, I don't think in the short to think, if you think the money is, for example, after I bought I would throw in the matter, take it as a family heirloom and sons, let them go. This dimension is very low risk, and then from the other perspective, I think how do I put it? We actually talked about this earlier. Global de-dollarization is inevitable, because a lot of people think that decentralization, the center is that easy to remove? Sometimes the center is not so easy to remove, but self decline. For example, the current global economic center, to a certain extent, or the monetary center, the financial center is the United States, but the United States in various aspects of a series of problems, resulting in the centralization of the status is increasingly declining.

Under the circumstance of more and more decline, in fact, the world is forced into a multi-center situation to a large extent, and the more in this kind of centralized situation, the value and charm of Bitcoin may be accepted and understood by more and more people. So I think you may think of a slightly longer dimension, do not say I now into the three months after how much money, half a year after how much money, those things who are not accurate, who do not know.

Do you think you can make money immediately after you buy it? I don't know, but if you take a longer view, you may have a different dimension of thought and value experience.

Host Zhang Shuhao: I understand, Mr. Cai, what is your point of view.

Cai Kailong:Actions are more important than words, so I asked the two guests, how many Bitcoins do you have and what is your last operation? This is actually the best reflection of how you feel about bitcoin right now. I'm sure you both have bitcoins, I think you do, or if you think it's too high, you sell it, you don't like it. I thought it would go up, but I couldn't hold it when it went to more than $40,000. I thought the value was too high, too high.

If you sell it and you see it go up to $50,000, there's nothing you can do, because you're not on the car and you can't buy it anymore, so if you sell $40,000, you're not going to buy it until it keeps going up. And then it fell to 40000, I think the price for me, I like the teacher said, in the long run can be rising, if use it as a relatively long, such as span of 10 years, span bigger, at least beat inflation, this is no doubt, to what extent I don't know, to what extent is also don't know, as long as you not take your life need money this, you can compare the time span is long, you'll be able to endure it sharp rise and fall, so that long-term investment risk is small.

As for the entry point, everyone enters the point is different, let's say I think more than 40,000, I think it's OK, now I fall back and I immediately buy back. I have my own opinion. I would like to ask Mr. Zhang, do you think you have any Bitcoin left? Or what is the point of buying and selling? Do you have any operations recently? In the teacher also say once, I also listen to your view.

Host Zhang Shuhao: I have no operation recently, it is to buy before the rise, in fact, buy very little, the principal is also very little, but also at the teacher's side of the position is bigger.

Cai Kailong:So if you're a long-term investor, you're going to hold on to it because you think it's going to go up. If it doesn't go up, you're going to sell it. It's human nature.

Yu Jianing:I don't have anything to do with Bitcoin myself. I just see it as a digital currency heirloom, a concept I laid out in my New Year's Eve speech, and one that I do myself. In my opinion, Bitcoin is to be left to posterity. For other assets, there are still operations. Some assets that have risen more than 20 times have generally been reduced, and many assets have been sold more than half. There are some emerging projects that will add a little bit of position, and the overall position is decreasing, but the Bitcoin position is not moving much.

As a bridge between the atomic world and the bit world, Bitcoin has monopolized this position, and no one can challenge it. But the rest of the project, although said that gains a lot, but I think as long as not monopoly, there is a variable, and there are too many variables have risen we'll have to withdraw, I have been live inside to tell everyone about is cast high low suck, once you look at the assets have increased 10 times, 20 times also so with hover, add the warehouse, the risk is big.

Cai Kailong:Tell to tell a sentence on these a few words most dry goods, the most practical.

Zhang Shuhao, the host: Mr. Yu accidentally went to Versailles and sold it 20 times. It's already 20 times. Tesla may not even be so high.

We can find a separate amount about the secondary market. Time is about to run out for the last question. Two teachers can express their final opinions on Bitcoin in simple words in two or three minutes.

Because now there is more and more data to prove that the relationship between Bitcoin and commodities is getting stronger and stronger. Recently, it is obvious that the share price of Tesla, or the price of the ARK fund, will have a stronger correlation with the trend of Bitcoin. Could Bitcoin be a commodity in its ultimate form?

Yu Jianing:In my opinion, Bitcoin is a kind of commodity to some extent. In China's relevant documents in 2013, the documents issued by the central bank and several ministries and commissions regarded Bitcoin as a virtual commodity. However, many previous courts and precedents concerning mining machines and Bitcoin have also treated Bitcoin as a virtual good, including the Civil Code.

So that there is no problem, it has become a new mainstream assets, it seems to have the correlation of correlation with other assets in strengthening, this not a good thing, I think many institutions configuration COINS because correlation between some COINS, can enrich a diversified investment portfolio, but now it seems to be the strengthening of the correlation. I think in the long run, it is a kind of digital gold, it is ok to us to understand it as digital gold, gold in the world now is what position, what role, at least the currency is also completely can replace and implementation, and we see a lot of institutional investment currency positions is also from your ownership positions, it is also the inevitable trend.

Cai Kailong:I think the academic community is still relatively unified that it is biased towards commodities, but because of the increasing investment in this institution recently, in fact, gradually people regard it as a kind of mixed assets, isDigital hybrid assets, because commodities have their pricing logic. Because the most important thing in finance is value. Commodity has its pricing logic, but Bitcoin cannot find its pricing logic. It relies more on emotions, beliefs and fictitious things. So, in the past, maybe a lot of people thought it was a commodity, and the law was easier to define, put it on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to trade futures, market positioning commodities. Later, more and more investors slowly, more and more institutions after admission, more and more linked.

For example, why did Tesla's stock price fall? Because bitcoin went down, because Tesla didn't buy more than a billion bitcoins? In fact, the more linkage, more and more bad with other commodities linkage, linkage is smaller, your asset anti - risk portfolio will be good. The more it intermoves, the more it looks like a class of assets, that is, if we look at it as a class of assets, it should be an alternative asset, and the alternative asset is a synthetic asset, which is the synthetic asset, which is synthesized by computers, by mining, so I think its commodity nature is gradually weakened, and the synthetic asset nature is gradually strengthened.

And speculative, just said investment investment, such as Mr. Zhang's long-term holding is called investment, a lot of people regard it as a speculative product, fast in and fast out, so now I prefer to think it is a synthetic asset.

Zhang shuhao: I see. In fact, this time is about to come to the end of our first column of "New Knowledge on the Chain". Thank you very much for sharing the views of Mr. Yu and Mr. Cai. I believe it will bring new thinking to the audience watching the live broadcast, not only for the investors in our industry, especially for some investors outside the circle. They did not enter the market, they do not even understand the value of Bitcoin, do not recognize, or do not understand the logic of Bitcoin investment users can bring them some new ideas and new thinking, thank you very much, again thanks to Mr. Yu and Mr. Cai.

Cai Kailong: I would like to insert a word, because I am Tencent knowledge officer, but because of this can not see their message, my own side is a broadcast room is a message. If you have any questions, you can ask me. I have my channels in Baidu, Tencent and Toutiao. If you want to ask more questions, you can add my WeChat caikailong2020, and we can have some private exchanges. thank you

ZHANG SHUHAO: Thank you.

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