13 Predictions: What will happen to Bitcoin in 20 years?

Source: Medium 

Original title: "What Will Bitcoin Look Like in Twenty Years?"-2017.10.29 

Original author: Daniel Jeffries 

Translator: 36氪

Rhythm Note: After three years, Bitcoin has reached a historical high again. When the last round of Bitcoin price reached a high of 20,000 US dollars, Daniel Jeffries wrote an article on "Where will Bitcoin go in 20 years?" We have made reasonable and well-founded predictions on the development trend of China's future, and now we look back, some conjectures are becoming reality, and some have not yet been confirmed. And each prediction is based on the situation at that time, and it can still inspire us today.

Predicting the future is tricky business, Because it's easy to get it wrong.

But we still have to do it and find the right trend. Since it’s been almost 10 years since the Bitcoin white paper was released, I’m going to use a 20-year time frame to predict the evolution of Bitcoin, the blockchain, some other cryptocurrencies, and decentralization.

When I am old and my hair is gray, this article Looks can be downright silly or downright brilliant.

I don't really care though, I'm working on it anyway And work hard.

I will also discuss in more depth instead of giving Come to some conclusions like "Bitcoin will go to zero" or "Bitcoin will become a reserve currency, worth $1 million". Without humility, this is not something anyone can do.

I will look at how technology will transform and how society will transformation.

Although I have successfully predicted future trends and technological developments. But predicting the future, no one can be 100% correct. Arthur C. Clarke is one of the greatest science fiction writers of all time. He predicted the advent of satellites, GPS, cloud computing, the Internet and telecommuting, but by his own admission, he overestimated the importance of rockets. And, even when a company offered him a prototype laptop, he failed to predict its importance.

Chaos  theory tells us that it is impossible to predict the future. But that's not quite true.

We can never predictblack swan event or totally unexpected technology (try explaining computer and the Internet), but we can do a kind of random sampling analysis about tomorrow and predict the major wind direction.

Very few people do it well. In fact, most people predict the future is ridiculous, so before making predictions, we need to understand why we can try to avoid the same mistakes.

The Internet will never succeed

The number one reason people can't accurately predict the future is that they spend as little as five minutes researching it before making their point.

This is not thinking.

  

This andThe primitive lizard brain is so much like that it is completely incapable of understanding anything novel. It is only good at attacking, defending, finding food and shelter, and avoiding boredom. Just a survival machine.

Unfortunately, many people spend almost all their lives in this level, their opinions are worthless when they say they see new trends and directions.

The second that people make wrong predictions about the future The main reason is that the future defies their understanding of the world. Think of a company like Kodak, They refuse to predict the potential of digital cinema because it has been operating under the old model for a hundred years. They have every advantage, but they pooh-pooh it. They saw the past as the future, and they paid a heavy price when the torrent of market developments rushed past them. To see the future, you have to be able to step out of your world, forget about past successes, and step out of the intense confines of your present.

The third major reason why people don’t see the future is, It challenges their established positions of power. That's why Oligarch banker Jamie Dimon and from The prince of a country that just allowed women to drive, both bitcoin and crypto Consider it a "fraud" or "scam".

They really can’t see clearly, because they belong to the current system main beneficiaries. Nor do they want to see it. So they resist, even unconsciously. It's just a psychological defense mechanism. The rise of new management styles meant their status was threatened, and they were terrified.

Ask these people what they think about Bitcoin, it’s like asking The cab driver what he thinks of Uber, or what he thinks of horse-drawn carriages. Their opinions are worthless.

The fourth main reason people screw up forecasts is that they Mistaking your own opinion for reality. It's just their perception of the world right now, which is already reality, and predictions are often not the same thing. One is a map and the other is a territory. Don't mistake maps for territories.

In 1995, Clifford Stoll of Newsweek USA published An infamous article declaring that the Internet is about to collapse, facing failure. Stoll wrote:

Visionaries saw the future of telecommuting, interactive libraries, and multimedia classrooms. They talked about e-town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and trade will move from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic. nonsense.

    

When you read this sentence, you may smile knowingly, because you will have an incomparable sense of superiority. What an idiot! Who didn't see the coming of the internet?

The answer is: almost no one.

In hindsight, this is a certainty .

I bet almost everyone is laughing at this poor guy. But even if they knew what the Internet was in the first place, they didn't see it coming. To be sure, they didn't see the advent of Wikipedia, the rise of telecommuting, or even say that one day they'll buy everything from books to groceries on Amazon.

In fact, the most striking thing about the above sentence is not how inaccurate it is, but how How precise on many levels.

That’s right.

Read this article, you will find that many of his prophecies are is unbelievable!

If you look back at Stoll's point, you will see that in Over the next 20 years, it was a very clear picture. Take a look:

Nicholas , director of the MIT Media Lab ; Negroponte predicts that we will soon be buying books and newspapers directly over the Internet.

Stoll sees the future, he just refuses to see it. Had he been able to look beyond his own vision instead of interpreting and filtering what he saw, this essay would have gone down in history as the most forward-thinking and most accurate writing ever written. This leads to our next reason.

The fifth reason people make mistakes is being very, very impatient.

Start with Stoll:After 20 years on the internet, I'm confused.

Stoll has lived on the Internet for twenty Years, but it didn't reveal anything that surprised or sparkled his eyes. It's easy to think that if something hasn't happened for such a long time, then it never will.

The waiting is the hardest part. It takes patience to let things develop naturally.

Be patient. patience. patience.

Creativity needs to experience setbacks, failures, and great perseverance . Once you expose your ideas to a reality full of rust, gravity and friction, things will fall apart. There is no plan to gain survival to be connected with the enemy. Reality is the whetstone that grinds you or sharpens your mind.

Things take time.

How long does the real innovation process take? A typical example comes from George de Mestral, Velcro) inventor.

He first came up with this idea in 1941 when he Taking his dog for a walk in the woods, he saw a pile of burrs stuck to his fur clothing. From that time on, an imperfect idea took root in his mind for seven years. In 1948, he set out to make his idea a reality, and it took him ten years to get it into mass production.

And, when he started his business in the late 1950s, he anticipated the demand.

But it didn't happen.

  

  

Five years later, in the space program in 1960, Velcro became a solution for astronauts to wear, The method of taking off the spacesuit problem. Some other people in the world only care about the solution of the problem, not the idea or ideology behind it. Soon, the ski industry took notice of its application to boots.

From original idea to well-run profitable business, time period About twenty-five years.

Finally, before we start making predictions about cryptocurrencies, we can also Take a lesson from Stoll.

His biggest mistake is the sixth that people turn a blind eye to the future , and the last reason. He takes current inventions, pushes them forward, and imagines them as solutions to future problems. wrong!

Current inventions only solve current problems. Future problems will require entirely new solutions.

In that article, Stoll mentions that CD books are never Will replace physical books. He's right, reading on a CD with a crappy monitor that "rips" your retinas is a painful experience. But understanding this can help us understand the characteristics of future solutions.

It is almost impossible to know what form these solutions will take , but we can find out the characteristics of the solution so that we can recognize it when it appears.

Let's see how it works:

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CDs are bulky. The monitors at the time were so low resolution it was hard to see clearly and they hurt the eyes. Moreover, the computer is also very large and not easy to carry. Even the laptop is a brick and heats up badly. Nobody wants to read a damn thing.

But he did not notice the disadvantages of physical books.

Physical books are also heavy. They are made of trees! They are easily broken or damaged. When you are carrying heavy things, there are not many books that can be carried.

From there we can see that a good solution is:

·Super portable and lightweight.

·Have a clear display.

·Hide data storage completely from users.

·As easy to use as a book. Just open it and read it.

· Protect data, if we lose or damage data, we can restore it without needing to buy it again.

Allows you to carry a large number of books at the same time.

  

Of course, we now know the answer: Kindles and iPads.

Both are convenient to use and can completely hide the storage medium , to protect data through networking, and it is very friendly to the user's eyes.

The solution begins with pointing out what went wrong and then proposing the correct Solutions to solve problems and correctly define what features we need for a better experience.

To sum up, we have three principles to help us predict Future:

Be patient.

Observe, don’t interpret.

Don’t graft today’s solutions onto tomorrow’s problems.

Okay, let’s break this crystal ball, Take a peek at the fate of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Hope we have better luck than Stoll, in the future, this This article won't make people call me an idiot.

The Rise of Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Decentralization

We will start with a few simple forecasts and move on to some more complex , more far-reaching predictions, and finally discuss some controversial issues.

I will also attach a confidence sheet to let you know my How strongly you feel about the scene.

1) Bubble burst

People who have been in and out of cryptocurrencies see it as a bubble that will burst, causing prices to plummet.

They are right. But so what? This is not the end of the story. This is just the beginning.

  

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Now we are in a state of extreme excitement. Its potential is enormous. We can almost experience a decentralized future. Right around the corner!

Of course, this is almost certainly not where it ends. The bubble will burst. Vitalik is right, 90% of the tokens will fail will fail.

But after the bubble bursts, the real future will appear.

  

In 8 years of crypto experimentation, everyone working on rails of the future, we haven't had much to gain beyond speculative transactions and a few smart contracts. The apps are so horrible they're almost unusable. When you press the "send" button and send someone $5,000 over the web, your nerves will crumble. Better hope you copy-pasted that address so your money doesn't just disappear into thin air!

When the dot-com bubble burst, the stocks of many large companies are now Plummeted 85%. Yet they survived. Amazon and Google continue to dominate the world.

The same happens in cryptocurrencies.

In this bloody battle, 10% of the projects will change Tomorrow’s Amazons, Googles, and Facebooks, maybe even JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, not to mention future governments like digital direct or liquid democracies.

Innovation is hard work. Not to mention you're trying to create something that doesn't even exist!

No guidelines, no working templates, no business models to replicate . Nothing at all. You are on your own! Just you and your imagination. Of course, 90% of people and companies fail!

It doesn't matter.

Cryptocurrency, Blockchain and Triple Entry  triple entry accounting is probably the most important invention of the last 500 years, so they don't creep in that good night.

Bubble bursting is just the next step. Three years later, this technology will really mature and start running (Rhythm Note: It turns out that this wish is still in the process of being realized).

2) Government cryptocurrency will thrive

The community won't like this, but there's no doubt about it.

  

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Governments in many countries will not sit idly by and this will allow them to lose control of the money supply without a hard-fought fight. Anyone working on a project by now should anticipate protocol-level attacks on decentralized cryptography and design some defenses against them.

To establish a distributed and decentralized DDoS interception Networks such as Gladius have pioneered the first steps, but there is still much work to be done. When I talk about the evolution of the protocol, we will discuss some additional defensive encryption techniques.

In the long run the government will lose the war , probably between 30 and 100 years (maybe sooner due to war or financial crisis). But in 10 or 20 years, it is expected that government cryptocurrencies will be powerful and dominate the flow of money for many people around the world.

"No one will accept them!" some cryptocurrency faithful Users may scream loudly.

But ordinary people don't know what really matters, they Nor do they see the need for privacy and security, except in extreme circumstances like war, where they are physically deprived. The need for privacy becomes very real when soldiers invade your house and take all your stuff.

Remember Snowden about government surveillance John  Oliver's interview?

When he realizes that ordinary people on the street have no privacy Look at the look on Snowden's face when he knows and doesn't care at all. Their only concern is whether the government has pictures of their private parts in the files. honestly.

People will adopt government cryptocurrencies without thinking. They may even think that this is absolutely the right thing to do.

Of course, as Naval Ravikant pointed out that a blockchain controlled by a country, a company, an elite or a mob is nonsense talk.

They are pointless because the purpose of the blockchain is to Power is distributed throughout the system. By not allowing a single organization to arbitrarily control or change the rules, decentralized cryptography and applications provide a strong set of checks and balances to prevent harmful manipulation of the system.

When 5 different banks own a blockchain, This is not a blockchain, this is just a database. A blockchain is only true when the bank, regulators, shareholders and the bank's customers simultaneously hold the keys to the blockchain and are able to neutralize each other's power.

Checks and balances of power are the key!

Government cryptocurrency will represent this idea fully and completely Sour taste.

But it doesn't matter. They will do it any way they can.

In fact, instead of distributing power, they may seek Greater power, give yourself the ability to track every citizen's spending and automatically collect taxes from wages and sales of goods and services. This is why authoritarian governments are racing to establish official cryptocurrencies. They can't wait to monitor the money in your pocket.

They will ban physical currency and will hold the following three One of the excuses is under the guise:

·Fight money laundering

·Stop terrorists

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·Stop crime

For hard believers of current cryptocurrency , government cryptocurrencies are going to be a very, very bitter pill, but they better get used to them.

A better option would be to assume both distributed and Hybrid system with centralized encryption, design it now to avoid being swallowed in this "tsunami". It is better to use blockchain to transform the current system and then overwhelm it from within rather than ignore it or make it hostile.

3) Decentralized cryptocurrency will become a parallel economic operating system on the planet

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The rise of centralized encryption does not mean that decentralized encryption is will disappear. Oh, a lot of governments try, but in the end they just can't kill them all. the reason is simple.

  

The same factors that make it difficult for people to agree on a blockchain will also make it difficult for governments around the world to agree on anything. They can't do it. Some governments will love decentralization, while others will hate it.

While some countries are openly opposing them, many others There will also be public support for decentralized cryptocurrencies, especially in countries that have been hardest hit by the dollar’s dominance. For example, some countries in Latin America, Singapore, Switzerland, and many Asian and African countries welcome decentralized cryptocurrencies with open arms.

If all countries disagree, then decentralized Encryption will never go away, even centralized encryption will.

But to remain relevant, decentralized cryptography needs act fast. They need a killer app. Now they are vulnerable. To really take hold, they need this killer app to spread across the globe. It has to be something so indispensable that one cannot imagine life without it.

In a previous article I outlined a possible That is to gamify the distribution of income. But that's only one way. There are many, many other ways. If you're developing a platform now, know that it's a race against time, and that central encryption systems will take root along the way.

4) The killer app for cryptocurrency is not the browser

  

This is the A classic case of old inventions grafted onto new systems. Brave Browser is awesome, I bet I would like it because it will Pair with universal payment systems, automatically swap cryptocurrencies, but I don't think it's the final interface to the blockchain. I think this might be an intermediate step.

So, what does a killer app look like?

 

I don’t know.

 

But I know it should be:

·everywhere

·Easy to use

·It can be a privacy protection and information trading platform.

·Open source

 

It's also something completely new and original, while extending blockchain's best features while also minimizing its shortcomings.

 

Maybe a decentralized AI assistant or attention filter device? There will be all kinds of possibilities, so act now!

 

5) Blockchain is just the beginning of decentralization

 

The blockchain system is only the first step in the decentralization mechanism.

  

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People are already inventing new things like IOTA's Tangle and HashGraph.

 

It doesn't matter if both projects fail in the long run, because other projects will Create another method. This is almost certain.

 

In the next twenty years, I predict dozens of There are hundreds or even hundreds of experimental decentralized consensus protocols that can reach the transaction level and be strengthened by artificial intelligence systems.

It is very likely that none of these systems were designed by humans.

 

On the contrary, if artificial intelligence is given a hundred years, they Will iterate on ideas quickly and develop a system that no human can do. They will take inspiration from nature and from insects, plants or other biological systems such as proteins.

 

One or two of these systems will rule all cryptocurrencies , becoming the metasystem that rules them all, unifying many different kinds of cryptocurrencies and running the entire system like a giant fractal, allowing countless sub-networks to thrive within it.

 

6) Cryptocurrencies will become easier to use

 

The user experience of cryptocurrency systems today is terrible.

 

If I type something wrong, or copy and paste wrongly, I My money is gone forever; if there is a software glitch, my money is gone forever; if someone hacks into my computer or phone, my money is gone forever...

 

See this trend? Make any mistake and you're screwed. It's like riding a motorcycle on the edge of a cliff, and there are no guard rails.

 

  

 

The core wallet is very difficult to use. When I last upgraded Ethereum, it forgot to keep my private keys, so I had to restore them all. Earlier this year I had an old bitcoin that was stuck on an ancient version of Multibit from 2013. It took me a week to get it out because the software mistook me for sending a transaction that was never actually played.

 

Imagine, will these wallets still be used five years from now? What happens when quantum computers come along and we need to completely update the underlying protocols of the stressed system?

 

The average person will never be able to complete these steps. Zero chance. 20 years in IT has taught me that people can and will screw up their machines in ways techies can't even imagine. Murphy's Law in action.

 

What's worse, you can't reverse any trades, and there's no way Let it avoid mistakes. I predict there will be a lot of algorithmic freezes, rollbacks, secure transactions, and how to self-custody funds and recover stolen money.

 

Only a system that provides all the functionality of the old system plus new functionality will achieve mass adoption.

 

Think about  CD-ROM books from the 80s. They have a lot of new features, like charts and colors, and you can back them up.

 

But that’s not good enough, because CDs are fatally flawed. In The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil calls this evolutionary development "fake pretenders ” stage. New technologies have some advantages, but also too many disadvantages, making it difficult to succeed and replace old technologies.

 

  

 

< p line="qcIK" linespacing="150">It wasn't until the Kindle and iPad that e-book readers had all the old features of physical books, like portability and ease of reading, plus some new features like being able to carry both A thousand books, it can achieve rapid development.

 

Cryptography must follow a similar path, from being fatally flawed to enabling untold new possibilities for people and businesses power to achieve its dominance.

 

I also see a lot of systems that we really need and want to Pass cryptocurrency to your kids. To do this, we need to form pawn shops when necessary, or algorithmic banks, with decentralized cloud or fog services acting as the final arbiters.

 

Simply separate your keys and give them to trusted Friends or loved ones are not enough. This will be the first solution to be eliminated. Friends may stop being friends, and people get divorced or die or worse. We need something better, fully automated.

 

Think about passing your bitcoins to your loved ones now How difficult it is. What if you died tomorrow, or got hit on the head and forgot your password?

 

Even if you plan for it, it can suck.

 

  

 

You need to create a will, lock your private key and a backup of your wallet in a safe, give the password to a lawyer and hope he doesn't keep it Steal it, or a USB stick or Trezor/Nano will not hang. You can also create a multisig wallet with some friends and family, and hope someone doesn't backdoor or bugcheck into a different version of Github and screw it up. Everything is immature. This is unacceptable.

 

By the way, if you want to start building a Needed cryptocurrency business, need to consider solving inheritance issues. When the time comes, everyone will happily pay you.

 

I predict that smart contracts and artificial intelligence will automatically generate wills. In essence, the blockchain itself is the bank and customer service department, which may use your biometric token and a third-party verification group, or a decentralized artificial intelligence, to verify your loved ones, or in Automatically triggers when something unexpected happens to you, at which point automatic password and key recovery will stop.

 

No matter what it looks like, we need algorithmic control so that we can give our money to whoever we want and it won't be snatched or stolen. We also need this system to protect us from accidents, death, and madness.

 

7) The protocol of the cryptocurrency will be distilled from itself

 

Currently, all cryptocurrencies in existence are inextricably linked to their protocols.

 

I hope we can exchange, send and receive and protect, save And protocols for storing our cryptocurrencies are distilled.

 

This will reflect how today's servers move from bare metal to virtualized to containers to nothing Server development process.

 

  

 

First of all, most cryptocurrencies are not scalable. We can’t even achieve visa-level transaction processing on the blockchain, which is the holy grail of cryptosystems and the subject of much debate. Bitcoin can peak at 7 transactions per second.

 

Some even see this as an advantage of cryptocurrency , because it encourages people to save and store money, rather than send it.

This is ridiculous.

 

We should be able to make as many of these Money moves.

 

Let's face it, the 1MB limit is nothing more than a protection against hackers attack. Initially, Bitcoin had no limits. Satoshi then slipped it in overnight without mentioning it or explaining it in the source code. This is most likely just a stupid way to prevent DDoS attacks.

 

We can and will come up with better protections.

 

Are you a 1MB follower? What about the 2MB for SegWit2X? Maybe you'll move to an 8MB limited bitcoin cash blockchain?

 

Wrong. All of this is false and nonsensical.

 

 

According to Lightning Network folks say that if we have seven billion people doing only two transactions a day, we need:< /p>

 

24 GB blocks, 3.5 TB/day, 1.27  ;PB/year

 

We need to think differently, And keep evolving to design real solutions. For Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to survive, they must change. When quantum computers come knocking, with better speed and innovation, it will be easy to integrate new defense systems and update encryption algorithms.

 

We can’t just stop at Satoshi’s vision and assume he thought everything.

 

But he didn’t.

 

Honestly, who gave Satoshi his mind? He has left the project. If he really wanted to boot it, he'd probably just stay on Linux like Linus did. But he didn't. He left it up to the rest of us to figure it out.

 

So let’s actually start doing that.

 

One way is to extract all the agreements and put All old bitcoins run into virtual machines or containers. These rules, however, are separate from Bitcoin itself.

This is just one of the ways, but to really become A breakthrough technology, blockchain requires real innovation.

 

Either way, people need to think fast or we still CryptoRuble (Russian-issued cryptocurrency) will beat us when it comes to debating 1MB vs 2 MB.

 

We also needed as it will serve as a defense against hostile actors and < a href="https://www.fireeye.com/current-threats/anatomy-of-a-cyber-attack.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">APT (Advanced Persistent Threat) Necessary for protocol-level attacks. NEM architecture is a good start as it includes firewalls etc. for node protection .

 

But it needs to go further to stop more insidious and destructive attacks , and it cannot take 4 years to implement a solution.

 

 

 

The best solution may be to download the chain of external security rules to all nodes in the network, which act as intrusion detection, firewall and protocol inspectors, and automatic evolution based on artificial intelligence Rule sets and countermeasures.

 

ThinkNeuromancer's ICE bar.

 

8) We will have four major meta cryptocurrencies, plus fifty to one hundred minor cryptocurrencies currencies, and unlimited virtual variations of these cryptocurrencies, plus national cryptocurrencies

 

Now we're making cryptocurrency for everything.

 

An identity platform like Civic? Make a cryptocurrency.

 

Creating a decentralized DNS? Be a cryptocurrency and IC0!

 

Develop a speechless application on the blockchain application ? You need a cryptocurrency, my friend!

 

  

 

You don’t actually need a password.

 

Cryptocurrencies will start appearing in different meta categories. At this point, I can only see four types of bitcoins that the blockchain (or blockchain technology) could seamlessly switch to consume services as needed:

 

·Cryptocurrency for Deflation

· User deflationary cryptocurrency

· Behavior tokens

· Reward tokens< /p>

 

Deflationary cryptocurrencies are for hoarding and investing. Their value rises over time and benefits savers. Everyone needs an investment like this, which is why Bitcoin was born in the first place.

An inflationary cryptocurrency mirrors the movement of the U.S. dollar. No one likes to spend Bitcoin on a flat-screen TV, because a few years later, as the price of Bitcoin increases, they are effectively paying $175,000. We need a stable, usable cryptocurrency. Think of this as the classic "store of value", Paul Krugman is always complaining, and knows that we really need these things to buy and sell everyday goods.

 

Behavior tokens are for behavior on the network and should always is free, like voting or sending a text message. These are not microtransactions. There shouldn't be a cost to resetting a password on something. As the EOS folks put it, "If you go to Amazon, it takes 3 cents to load the page, no one will choose to load the page.”

 

Reward Tokens are used to incentivize good behavior and punish bad behavior.

 

You can build the ultimate cosmic system with these four cryptocurrencies. Any other cryptocurrency can be used as a subcomponent with different metadata for those cryptocurrencies.

 

9) We will learn economics nonsense that we don’t know

 

You are Keynesian or A follower of the Austrian free market?

 

The answer is probably, who cares?

 

  

 

All of our economic theories are conclusions based on limited data from the industrial age. As we experiment with new economic systems in the coming years, all current economic theories will prove to be as good as cave paintings.

 

This is what these new cryptocurrencies are made of: microeconomics at war.

 

This is Darwinian economics.

 

Some basic laws of economics will still hold, but many Laws will be thrown aside. That's because, with blockchain dominance, we'll have real-time economic data on a global scale, not just a bunch of guesswork done with pencil and paper a hundred years ago.

 

As artificial intelligence tracks statistics in real time around the world, we will be able to See its real impact on a country enacting steel tariffs. We will be tracking global production and manufacturing with incredible precision that will surprise us in so many wonderful ways.

 

10) There will be a DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) that will grow into the Fortune 500

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Most likely to reach this milestone may be an The DAO, as it will likely be in the most dominant network, takes a cut of transactions and miners, which will help fund future development and governance of the network.

 

  

 

It will not hoard all funds, but will flow funds to other businesses and DAOs through smart contracts, and enable national and local governments or other Favorable non-governmental entities.

 

To do this, DAO had to evolve.

 

Now we think of DAO as a kind of smart contract. This is far from it.

 

DAO will need AI to help manage and mitigate its rulesets , and it needs to be able to automatically generate a templated governance model. Governance is everything to a DAO, and there isn't a good scalable model for managing it at scale. Make it an open-source, merit-based workplace. Early DAOs failed because they had what I call "brave new world "The problem.

 

  

 

< p line="cudt" linespacing="150">Everyone thinks they are the boss, and no one wants to take the trash away.

 

When everyone is the king of the DAO, ordering a paper clip is difficult.

 

In order to function effectively, a team needs role players and stars . People also have to understand their role and accept it, even if it changes later, because they build strengths and experiences into the system.

 

Just like in a corporate environment, it can be difficult to manage. How do you fire someone for not working in a DAO? How do you make sure that the person responsible for the security of the ICO is actually qualified and not just elected because everyone likes him?

 

Future automated enterprise and nonprofit structures will have to The way change is managed and made decisions makes incredible tools, and operational protocols that run like code.

 

11) The gig economy will thrive

 

The World War II generation will have one or two jobs in their lifetime. Today each of us will have five or six servings.

 

  

 

Tomorrow's people will have five or six jobs at the same time.

 

Half of these revenues will be automated and passive, likely Is some kind of encrypted UBI (national basic income). We will also see the rise of AI-matching job services. The machine will know your abilities and skills and match you with jobs so that you don't have to look for a job.

 

Imagine that a software project requires a lot of code, such as one hundred thousand billion lines. Software projects are only getting more complex and will continue to grow. AI will write and test half of it, but people will write the other half. The project will be fed into a distributed, decentralized system that can split the work into parts, analyze them, and, like a project manager, hand off the work to programmers around the world (based on their reputation and skills).

 

You can think of it as a combination of UpWork and Mechanical Turk  System combined with artificial intelligence Github.

 

It can be useful in manufacturing and various blue collar jobs.

 

Hong Kong Metro's AI may be the first of its kind A prototype, even if it's not a perfect analogy. It can predict what will break down in the subway and give engineers a head start. This results in an uptime of 99% for the world's busiest subway.

 

A significant portion of this will be provided by external reputation banks ( Externalized Reputation Banks), these banks are driven by blockchain, just like the scene in the black mirror, will become the cornerstone of social credit in tomorrow.

 

It will be a double-edged sword.

 

  

 Social Credit in Black Mirror

 

The main challenge is that very few people are able to determine what is good and what is in a system bad agreement, and ideology tends to distort these concepts into unrecognizable chaos. It's very easy to create a ruleset that enslaves us all if we're not careful.

 

The focus of controversy

 

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I just made some simple predictions. Now, let's discuss some issues that are likely to spark heated debate.

 

12) Blockchain will bring all kinds of evil

 

Enthusiasts of crypto will have to come to terms with the fact that blockchain can and will bring As much evil as possible.

 

  

 

Nothing is good or bad. All things exist on a continuum. You can kill someone with a gun, but you can also go hunting to feed your family. Water sustains life, but it can also drown you and even poison you.

 

If you are using the "quick and break" DevOps approachdesign a system, then you just need to know that for those who can manage our This could very well be a disaster for the system in many areas of life.

 

Instead, you should slow down, think about it, and don’t put Things messed up.

 

You should start thinking about all the ways to destroy your system, otherwise etc When it gets out of hand, you won't be able to resist it. If you don't imagine that a hostile power will harness the power of blockchain, then you are naive.

  

  ;

I once wrote an article titled "What If Hitler Had a Blockchain?" Frankly, I didn't want to post it because I didn't want to give the bad guys any fresh ideas, but rest assured, it probably doesn't matter. Their "black hearts" are already thinking hard about how to use the blockchain as a system of suppression and control.

 

Here, I am deliberately vague so as not to put all these thoughts into the collective unconscious. But think of digitalization that will track every aspect of your life, from where you go, what you do, statistical predictions of your behavior, and devise behavioral algorithms designed to motivate you to follow ideologies, and finally even allow for unhackable DRM and outright genocide.

 

Genocide?

 

Yes.

 

Don’t forget, IBM helped the Nazis track their victims with punched cards , helping the Nazis carry out the Holocaust.

 

What can they do with blockchain? The answer: more horrific atrocities we can only begin to imagine now.

 

Maybe you think an open system will always prevent abuse?

 

Wrong.

 

If the Internet has taught us anything, it is the open system Tends to be centralized, And centralized power has enough time to destroy any system and make it serve its own purposes.

 < /p>

If you're studying cryptography, haven't you thought about all the ways in which passwords can be misused? Well, chances are you're not designing a system to save the world, but Created a prison.

 

13) Bitcoin has a 50% chance of survival

Most true believers won't like this, but let's be honest, the 50/50 odds are really, really high here.

 

 

First To be clear, I hope and support Bitcoin to survive. But we still have to look at this issue objectively and see the difficulties it faces.

 

Bitcoin has a first-mover advantage. It holds the number one position among all cryptocurrencies and still dominates the global market share, but it faces some major flaws that could spell its demise.

 

Basically, it is the model of blockchain revolution  ;T (Ford's earliest car).

 

  

 

You todayHow many Model Ts can you see on the street?

 

Can you modify a Model T to make it look like a Lamborghini ? Can you add complex electronics to it and make it a self-driving Tesla? No.

 

First, Bitcoin has no built-in governance mechanisms. This is a critical flaw. There are only a few ways to change this situation. The first is to submit a proposal that almost everyone agrees on, as we did in As seen with SegWit, this is very difficult. It took four years to be adopted.

 

The second step is to start a new project and " hard fork". This may be the only way to finally achieve this goal. A team might fork it and build governance mechanisms into it, but that's a long shot.

 

A well-designed, widely distributed cryptocurrency with built-in governance that will It has huge advantages over Bitcoin and can easily replace Bitcoin because it makes upgrades more seamless and smooth.

 

It only takes a few Upgrades can be quickly permeated throughout the network in hours or days, not years.

 

How to expand? We have already discussed this issue. Changing the block size doesn't cut it. This calls for some more drastic measures.

 

If some hostile forces decide to bring all core developers together, so what should I do now? Given the severe shortage of crypto-related talent right now, how easy will it be to replace them?

 

These are just some of the almost insurmountable problems. I point this out just to get you thinking. If you can actually spot a problem, you can find a solution to it. But if we only deal with bogus issues like block size limits, we'll get nowhere.

 

Bitcoin is a beautiful and brilliant idea that has changed world. It doesn't fail because of fraud or being a scam, only because of its own hardcoded rules, infighting and lack of governance.

 

Of course, it doesn't have to fail. We can now start thinking about how to sustain it.

 

As I mentioned earlier, some kind of virtualization or container Progress in globalization will allow Bitcoin to adapt and evolve by migrating to a set of abstract protocols and defenses that will help ensure that Bitcoin not only survives, but prospers.

 

The best way to ensure its survival is to understand it The, all, real reasons that might fail, and start designing real solutions to those problems so that when they do come, we're ready.

 

Conclusion

 

I left some bad thoughts in this article because I didn't want them to come up. If anyone has thought of this, and done it, there's nothing I can do about it.

 

Cryptocurrency represents a fundamental upgrade to the world’s economic system. Once they are fully activated and integrated into future global or interstellar networks, the world will look very different from the way we understand it.

 

Hundreds of years from now, today’s economy will look like the past Same as feudal economy.

 

Cryptocurrencies, dapps and DAOs may even bring us Bring it into a scene like "Star Trek", just like post-scarcity economies, but it will take time.

 

 

I don't think the singularity will accelerate tomorrow. But that may not be the reality. So, what does this bring us?

Encryption can be good or evil, Like everything in life.

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