Huatai Securities: May, June federal Reserve meeting is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points

On April 30, CORE inflation in the US remained high, but may be close to peaking both month-on-month and year-over-year. However, judging from the CPI and PCE data in March, the overall inflation pressure may not have peaked yet under the influence of "highly elastic" price increases such as energy prices. Huatai Securities believes that the Federal Reserve rate meeting in May and June is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp, and start to shrink the balance sheet as soon as May -- if implemented, it will be the first time since October 2019 (nearly 30 months) -- financial conditions are still accelerating tightening, the real interest rate curve may move up and continue to flatten. The end of the second quarter will be an important observation point for the Fed's reassessment of aggregate demand, inflation and labor market conditions. The (golden) ten