Russian and Ukrainian representatives held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, with 2 smart money bets predicting a ceasefire between the two sides within the year.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, from November 10 to 11, Russian and Ukrainian representatives held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi after a nine-month gap. The two sides agreed in principle to conduct another large-scale prisoner exchange, with the number originally set to be determined on November 12, but there was no breakthrough on a full ceasefire or territorial issues.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" probability for "Will Russia and Ukraine ceasefire before December 31, 2026?" is 5.9%. Two accounts bought $1,400 of "Yes."

Copezilla bought $720 (3,000 shares, 0.66% share, average price $0.2399). This account has an 85.7% win rate across 7 markets in the Ukraine Peace Deal section, with net profit of $4,600 and ROI +53.5%. This trade's input was 0.59 times its average input in that section.
CryptoGo bought $718 (3,100 shares, 0.69% share, average price $0.2300). This account has a 66.7% win rate across 3 markets in the Ukraine Peace Deal section, with net profit of $2,900 and ROI +120.6%. This trade's input was 0.9 times its average input in that section.

The prisoner exchange channel has repeatedly emerged without a full ceasefire. On October 23, the two sides each exchanged 270 military personnel; Ukrainian human rights representative Dmytro Lubinets also said that another 7 Ukrainians returned to Ukrainian-controlled areas and 7 went to Russia, with assistance from the International Committee of the Red Cross. On November 11, U.S. special envoy Kushner said that this release agreed in Abu Dhabi would be the "largest humanitarian release" in the war that has lasted about four and a half years; Zelensky previously mentioned 1,000 people from all sides, or possibly rising to 1,500.

Zelensky said on November 11 that there is now a "window of opportunity," that "everyone involved in the negotiations genuinely wants results before 2027," and expressed hope for results before the end of this year. Speaking about Kushner and Witkoff's visit to Moscow, he said what matters is that the Americans go to Putin with a concrete plan.

Russian representative Vladimir Medinsky told state television that he feels a peace agreement is closer, while reiterating that "every inch" of so-called Russian land must return to Russia. Reuters interpreted this as meaning that Russia still demands Ukraine hand over the entire Donbas. Kushner acknowledged that there is currently no trust between the two sides, that the territorial issue will be the hardest to resolve, and that arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky "will require more work; we are pushing a stone uphill."