Wintermute: Caution Still Warranted Until Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Week Moving Average at $75,500

BlockBeats news, November 10 — Wintermute stated that after the U.S. midterm elections, with Democrats regaining control of both chambers of Congress, the market has begun reassessing regulatory risks facing the AI industry, and AI trades previously boosted by favorable Washington policy have cooled. If the Federal Reserve raises rates during an AI asset pullback, tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite could simultaneously pressure the crypto market.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $81,000 last Wednesday but subsequently gave back most of the gains, falling to a low of $73,500 on Sunday, near the 200-day moving average of $73,000. Bitcoin's weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average of approximately $75,500, ending a streak of seven consecutive weeks above that level. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since June, erasing cumulative net inflows for the year; only Wednesday recorded net inflows during the week. Meanwhile, over $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, with Ethereum liquidations exceeding Bitcoin. Altcoins underperformed Bitcoin further, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA, and LIT falling more than 10%. In contrast, ZEC was one of the few large-cap assets to rise against the trend, indicating that the privacy sector still has some market demand.

Looking ahead, caution remains warranted until Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average. If Bitcoin's daily close falls below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average, the next level to watch is $68,000, and altcoins that rallied strongly earlier may face greater selling pressure. A shift to a positive outlook would require Bitcoin to reclaim and hold above $80,000 on the daily chart while spot Bitcoin ETFs resume weekly net inflows. In the near term, attention should be paid to U.S. October CPI data due Tuesday, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month; additionally, Cisco and Applied Materials will report earnings on Thursday, U.S. PPI data will be released on Friday, and Nvidia is scheduled to report earnings on November 17. The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on December 8–9, with the market currently pricing in a roughly 77% probability of a rate hike.