Will Anthropic release a new model to build hype before going public? An account with a 100% win rate and 4x returns from prediction models gives its judgment.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the next Fable model (5.2+) being released before the end of November 12" is 55%. The probability of "being released before the end of December 31" is 97%.
An account with only 3 historical trades, all wins, and all related to Anthropic model releases believes the new model will not be released this month:

lasson bought $405 "No" on "Will it be released before the end of November 12?" This account has a 100% win rate across 3 market trades in the Claude sector, with PnL +$2.4k and ROI +413.4%. This trade's investment was 2.06 times their average investment in this sector.

poli.monaco bought $245 "No" on "Will it be released before the end of December 31?" This account has a 90.9% win rate across 11 market trades in the Claude sector, with PnL +$15.5k and ROI +118.0%. This trade's investment was 0.2 times their average investment in this sector.

Anthropic has still not announced a release date for the next Fable 5.2 or higher version. A September Reuters report, whose headline can be found, roughly stated that the company was considering launching a new model before going public in response to GPT-6 Astra released on September 3.