Trump and Vance both want to shift blame, and the probability of the Defense Secretary leaving office within the year has soared.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on November 4, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said "the reason we lost is the war." Multiple media outlets quoted him as meaning: either admit that this war dragged down the midterm elections, or pretend it was worth losing the Senate for years over it. On the same day, CBS News reported that after a "catastrophic" defeat, Trump had asked advisers whether Hegseth should still remain in his post.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" probability for "Will Hegseth leave as Secretary of Defense before the end of December 31?" stood at 51.5%. That probability was around 24% on October 22; after the midterm results were confirmed, it climbed steadily, briefly surging to about 68.5% in the early hours of November 5, then falling back to above 50%.

bernardbulletin bought $4.1k of "Yes." This account has a 69.7% win rate across 2,009 market trades in the politics sector, with PnL +$163.9k and ROI +10.5%. The amount invested in this trade was 5.3 times its average investment in that sector.

On November 1, a related report by The Atlantic, relayed by The Daily Beast and others, said Trump was dissatisfied with the progress of the Iran war and was considering using Hegseth as a scapegoat; one adviser was quoted as saying Hegseth "is good at telling the president what he wants to hear." On November 3, The New Republic published an analysis titled "Pete Hegseth Is Destined to Become Trump's Midterm Scapegoat," drawing comparisons between the Iran war, the oil price shock, military resentment, and Rumsfeld's departure in 2006.

On November 4, The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon had "knives out," saying that people around Trump were looking for someone to take the blame, and that Hegseth was one of the candidates, though others believed CENTCOM commander Cooper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Caine were "more likely." The Guardian, citing former Pentagon officials and Republicans close to the White House, said that if anyone was responsible for being "dishonest or inaccurate" about the war's timetable, objectives, and results, "that is Pete Hegseth."

Publicly, when asked whether he would replace Hegseth, Trump still said, "No, I think he's doing a very good job," and White House spokesperson Anna Kelly also said the president "has full confidence in Secretary Hegseth."