Analysis: The Bitcoin bear market cycle has lasted 396 days, and is currently likely in the final stages of the bear market cycle.

BlockBeats news, November 5 — The founder of CryptoBoost stated in a post that BTC's current bear market began at the all-time high on October 6, 2025, and has lasted 396 days as of the time of posting, slightly exceeding the average 391 days required for a bear market bottom since 2014. In terms of historical drawdown magnitude, the 2014 bear market saw a maximum decline of approximately 86%, 2018 about 84%, and 2022 about 77%, while the current drawdown is approximately 53%, relatively moderate.

With the increase of institutional participants such as spot ETFs, corporations, and funds, the market's holding structure may become more solid, thereby mitigating the decline. BTC whales have been continuously accumulating since July. However, the cycle duration reaching the historical average does not mean the bear market is over; BTC still needs to reclaim $80,000 to $82,000 and sustain above that range to further confirm the market trend. He also cited recent market changes as background, including the decline in U.S. tech stocks and semiconductor sectors with capital rotating into bank stocks, as well as the Dow's rise and oil price decline after the U.S. midterm elections, arguing that current Wall Street capital flows are unclear and that BTC may be in the final stages of a bear market cycle.