Original Article Title: "EP33: This Cycle, My Experience and Lessons Learned (Part 2)"

Original Source: Mint Ventures

· Host: Alex, Research Partner at Mint Ventures

· Guest: Colin, Freelance Trader and On-Chain Data Researcher; On-Chain Nomad, Professional On-Chain Investor

· Recording Date: 7/17/2025

Disclaimer: The content discussed in this podcast episode does not represent the views of the respective guests' organizations, and the mentioned projects do not constitute any investment advice.

Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be initiated by Mint Ventures. Here, we clarify facts, explore realities, and seek consensus in the WEB3 world through continuous questioning and deep thinking. We aim to elucidate the logic behind hot topics, provide insights beyond the events themselves, and introduce diverse perspectives.

Alex: Today we have two guests, both of whom are our old friends. The first is Colin, a familiar on-chain analyst who is well-versed in both the US stock market and the crypto field. The other is the On-Chain Nomad, also my friend. He previously participated in our episode on Meme, sharing many thoughts and insights about Meme with us. Please introduce yourselves again.

Colin: Hello, my name is Colin. I run a Twitter account called Mr. Berg. I'm glad to be invited by Alex again to participate in the show and express some of my opinions. Thank you.

On-Chain Nomad: Hello everyone, I am the On-Chain Nomad. I have been in the industry for 23 years, focusing on the primary market since I joined. The returns from the primary market in the first half of the bull market basically turned into Bitcoin, and in the second half, into U, roughly following this rhythm. In this cycle, I have been paying attention to and participating in almost all the hotspots in the primary market. During this process, I have also summarized and learned some experiences and lessons. Today, I look forward to sharing them with everyone.

Evaluation of the Current Stage and Response Strategy

Alex: Now we are entering the formal discussion. The first question is closely related to each of our current investment operations. What are your views on the current stage of the cycle? In your opinion, what stage is the current crypto bull market at, whether it is for Bitcoin or other assets? Based on this assessment, what is your current general strategy and position?

Colin: Got it. Personally, when defining the so-called Bitcoin cycle, I mainly rely on my expertise in on-chain analysis to determine whether we are in the early stage, mid-stage, or late stage of the cycle. I remember the first time I participated in the show was in mid-February this year, and I discussed my views on this topic at that time. Today happens to be a good opportunity to review. First, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, I believe that BTC was very close to the end of this cycle. The reason is that at that time, we saw signals that have historically appeared at every top.

I know this logic may be disagreed with by many people because if you follow the normal four-year cycle, the peak should be around the end of this year, roughly between September and December. But I have also written an article explaining this. If we go back to 2021, four years ago, we actually saw the so-called first top in April—because that year had two tops. Almost all the top signals occurred in April 2021, not in the second top in November. In the current cycle, a similar situation has occurred again. I cannot say for certain that there will definitely be a second top now or sometime soon, but the current situation is basically identical to that year.

This means that at the beginning of this year, we triggered almost all the top signals I monitor through on-chain analysis. At that time, we dropped from the peak of around 110,000 to 74,000 in March and April, then rose to the current new high. During the second top in 2021, some signals also appeared. At that time, the signals were quite special because most of the signals had already been triggered at the first top. These included some divergence in capital inflow, vertical ascent, a trend with little retracement or consolidation, metrics like AVIV overheating, realized profit concentration, RUP divergence, and so on. If we compare the current situation with the second top in 2021, all these signals have reappeared. Of course, every cycle is completely different. The major difference in this cycle is the structural change in participants. In simple terms, many institutions have entered. Many companies are following MicroStrategy's lead in Bitcoin reserve strategy, and even recently, strategic reserves for Ethereum have begun to emerge. Based on my own perspective of defining the current cycle stage through on-chain analysis, I still tend to believe that we are reaching the end and are currently echoing the trend of the second top in 2021.

With this premise, I'll address the second question, which is about the current position and strategy. I mentioned in a previous appearance on the show that my view for the entire year of 2025 is relatively conservative. Whether it's based on certain conditions within the industry or the overall macro market, such as the imposition of tariffs after Trump takes office, disputes over firing Powell, etc., in such a large-scale environment, operational difficulties will be much greater than in 2024. As for positions, I currently have two parts: first is the Crypto portion. At the beginning of the year, when BTC reached 103,000, I had already closed my position and hedged with a 1x leveraged short to receive annualized returns, roughly 7%–10% in Funding Fees. The price has now hit a new high, surpassing my previous exit point, and some bottom signals are beginning to emerge, but they have not fully formed yet. Currently, my strategy involves a short plan with relatively low leverage, aiming to keep leverage between 1.15 and 1.25 times. The other part is US stocks. I'm more laid-back about US stocks and had already fully allocated back in April. I remember mentioning this when I appeared on the show in May, and I do not have plans to change this part of my position at the moment. This is my current overall view.

Alex: Alright. Colin just reviewed his previous assessment of the current stage and also talked about his latest situation. Basically, he is still sticking to his previous judgment. Before I add my comments, the reason we invited these two guests today is because their trading styles are completely different, and they focus on very different types of assets. Next, the on-chain participant who will speak is more skilled at discovering first-level opportunities, on-chain opportunities. Let's have him share his thoughts.

On-chain Participant: Alright, as the host just mentioned, my own trading style tends to focus more on emotions and market sentiment. I mainly share insights from a first-level perspective because, as Colin just shared, the second-level part is more specialized, and I don't have much experience to share in that area. From a first-level perspective, I can make a broad judgment: it's definitely not a first-level bull market right now. Since entering the market in '23, it's been a little over two years, going through events such as the hype around BTC's ecosystem back then or the meme coin frenzy earlier this year, it's clear to see external market participants entering this space. Not only is there on-chain activity driving the market, but there is also off-chain capital flowing into the first-level market. This feeling is very apparent. However, I believe the current market is rather lackluster and far from the excitement of a first-level bull market. Looking from a second-level perspective, not just me, but many first-level players, including those who trade altcoins, share a common feeling: this cycle's BTC and altcoins, or the first-level market, are somewhat disconnected. BTC is performing exceptionally well, while sometimes altcoins or the first-level market show no correlation with BTC's upward trend. Therefore, when assessing a first-level bull market, this is how I analyze and evaluate it. Regarding my positions, I have now converted about 90% of my holdings to USDT, leaving only 10% in BTC for long-term holding, untouched. I don't plan to buy back at this point. The information I receive, including from very skilled second-level traders or some OGs from the past crypto community, based on the collective information I gather, everyone seems to be shifting from taking risks to defending. My current stance aligns with this strategy.

Alex: As a very active first-level player, what is your current work status or daily time allocation like?

On-chain Participant: It's based on the market conditions. I pay close attention to on-chain liquidity. In the past week or two, on-chain liquidity has warmed up a bit, so my work hours have increased accordingly. When the on-chain activity was very low a while back, I basically spent only an hour or two each day checking information, looking for any major opportunities worth participating in. Like the recent pump a few days ago, I observed and participated in it. But I chose to opt-out of some on-chain PvP opportunities. I believe that as a first-level player, you need to consider the return on investment, i.e., the cost-effectiveness. Sometimes when the market trend is unfavorable or the timing is off, investing more time can result in losses.

Alex: So, is this the current status of those top players around you, or the on-chain experts, as we can say?

On-chain Nomad: Yes, isn't 0xsun the one who once said a very classic quote, "Starters don't play garbage time," or something along those lines?

The Investment Difficulty Change in This Cycle

Alex: I see. Let's move on to our second topic today. I know Colin has been through several crypto cycles as an investor. For you, comparing this cycle to the previous ones, do you think the investment difficulty has increased or decreased? What are the reasons behind it?

Colin: Alright. Personally, I don't think the overall market has seen a significant change in difficulty. Making money in the financial market has always been a very challenging task, especially when aiming for alpha, or above-market returns. As we just discussed, I think the most notable aspect of BTC in this cycle is its unique surge, almost like a solo run. The whole market seems to revolve around it, even surpassing ETH. Another peculiar event was Trump's re-election in 2025, which sparked a trade war. Both of these events would have a significant impact on anyone operating in the market. As the market matures, many immature assets, those that relied solely on capital inflow for hype, will gradually be phased out. Therefore, I wasn't too surprised by BTC's independent surge. As for the trade war, many people may be concerned, but if you are a long-term BTC investor, this event is just noise.

For example, if you are a holder who has been holding BTC since 2022, 2021, or even earlier without selling, you would actually be quite satisfied in this cycle. In the past cycles, you might have held BTC while watching other altcoins surge tens or hundreds of times, which could have affected you psychologically. But if today you are a holder who has not sold at all in this cycle, you would feel very content. For you, the difficulty may be lower. Because the BTC you are holding has been consistently rising, while other coins have not performed well, some even plummeting. If we must talk about difficulty, with institutions entering the market, the difficulty will surely increase. Our opponents are no longer the old OGs or whales, but rather those hedge funds or quant funds that have been in the traditional financial market for decades. Their entry has made the market more mature, attracting more institutions to participate, in a cyclical process. The result of this process is that BTC's volatility will decrease significantly, making it more challenging to hunt for alpha. But as I mentioned earlier, if you only want to earn BTC's beta, simply buy and hold, I don't think the current market difficulty will have a significant increase for you.

Alex: I see. Actually, this episode of our show is the second part of the theme "This Cycle Round, My Experience and Lessons Learned." In the previous episode, I also invited two friends to discuss this topic, and their feedback at the time was that this cycle was clearly more challenging. However, Colin's feedback was that it was okay and not significantly more difficult. Between these two answers, we can see a comparison. Colin's response contained a small hidden premise, which is that if you are a BTC holder, you might actually find this cycle not as challenging, and maybe even easier. This is because most of the attention and improvement in fundamentals in this cycle have actually been focused on BTC. However, for many investors seeking higher Alpha, especially in the first half of this cycle, many still pinned their hopes on altcoins, but the performance of altcoins was not good. So, I'd like to ask On-chain Nomad to discuss this issue again. What do you think has changed in terms of difficulty compared to when you first got into crypto assets in the previous cycle?

On-chain Nomad: I think this is a particularly good question, especially for first-level players. Sometimes when you're in the first-level, you hear many different voices: some say the first-level market has become more difficult, some compare it to how it used to be. This is where a very important word comes into play — bias. For first-level players, bias is very deadly. If you look at things with bias, you'll miss out on money-making opportunities. Because in the first-level market, you always see those people on Twitter who are always idolized regardless of the market trend. Even in a ranging market, such as when BTC didn't show a clear trend recently, many people on Twitter were still idolized. Like Ao Ying, who was a relatively popular second-level player for a while, he also performed well in a ranging market. I have tracked some of his trading logic or his own trading system. Not to mention the opportunities to play Meme a while back, or earlier to play NFTs. You'll find that in different stages, the first-level market always has opportunities that can make you earn many, many times alpha, and there are always people who can seize these opportunities. I was in a small group recently and gave an example to the group members: the first-level market is particularly like a horse carriage, carrying a whole cart of gold bricks to the sky. And we players are like citizens on the side of the road picking up the gold pieces that fall from this ascending carriage. These alpha opportunities or Memes, at the beginning, are covered by the cloth on the carriage. As it ascends gradually, the cloth slowly slips off, the market cap keeps increasing, and the gold pieces on the carriage keep falling off. And we, as first-level market players, are on the side picking up gold pieces. There will always be a carriage ascending into the sky passing by us, and what we can do is try to get as close to it as possible, as close to the market opportunity as possible. So I think whether it's a bull market or a bear market, no matter what stage it is, the first-level market always has some great opportunities that you can seize. I've been in the market since 2023, and in the past two years, I've experienced some bullish-to-bearish transitions. But I've always believed that the first-level market will continuously present new opportunities in front of you. My current view is that the first-level market is a market that can help people grow from 100,000 to a billion.

Alex: You just mentioned in your analogy that the opportunity in the primary market is like a carriage, initially covered with a cloth. For players who want to seize the opportunity, initially most people cannot recognize whether the carriage covered with cloth contains gold bricks or some worthless junk. You also mentioned that in the past round of the primary market, there were opportunities like NFTs, meme coins, and many other opportunities. Based on your personal experience, has the difficulty of approaching these carriages and identifying them to pick up gold nuggets changed?

On-chain Nomad: I think this change needs to be looked at in the context of narrative. For example, if the Heavenly Court wants to requisition a batch of goods from the mortal realm, the number of carriages heading to the Heavenly Court will increase. Just like in the recent past, whether in the BTC ecosystem or the meme ecosystem. When a narrative emerges, its wealth creation effect and opportunities will increase. When ten carriages pass by you instead of just one, you can pick up more gold nuggets; it becomes easier. This brings us back to the timing and trends we talked about in the previous question, which are also quite important in the primary market. When a trend emerges, you need to put more effort, focus more efficiently on this matter to earn more money. When there's no trend, make yourself more steady, more cautious. Even if you don't pick up more gold nuggets, at least don't let the gold nuggets you've already picked up scatter on the ground.

Alex: From your previous answer, let me summarize briefly. First, your mindset is very optimistic and open, believing that opportunities in the primary market always exist. Therefore, it is crucial to keep a close eye on the market. Second, even though the forms of these opportunities and the narratives behind them are constantly changing, you believe that the possibility of identifying them, approaching them, and profiting from them always exists. Even though they come in various forms, they are still opportunities that ordinary people can seize. So, you do not pessimistically think it's now harder.

On-chain Nomad: Yes, especially for players in the primary market, we should not give ourselves such psychological hints. We need to distinguish between taking a risk and defending against a wave, but in any case, we must maintain an open attitude towards opportunities and reject bias. Bias is a primary market killer. Once you view the market with bias, money-making opportunities will definitely stay away from you.

The Most Correct Operation in This Cycle

Alex: OK, let's discuss the third small question. In this cycle, let's say from '23 until now, it can be considered that it has not yet completely ended. So, in this cycle, what was the most correct investment operation or strategy you made? Could you share the thought process and background at that time?

On-Chain Nomad: In this round, the most correct operation and strategy, I have roughly summarized into two major directions. The first one, actually just mentioned, I categorize it as the "Dragon Head Strategy." Let's first talk about having a narrative come out, such as the BTC ecosystem, Meme ecosystem, etc. In these sectors, we should participate as much as possible in those dragon head assets, participate in those assets with strong consensus, and try to get our position in. For example, in some of the dragon head assets in the inscription, such as ordi, sats, or some new protocol's dragon heads, whether it's multiples, liquidity, or market cap ceiling, are higher. When we were trading Meme, some platform coin dragon head coins, AI narrative concept dragon head coins, their multiples, market cap, and liquidity are actually the highest. So in this round of primary market, the more valuable or more correct operation, is to seize more opportunities for some dragon heads and participate less in some second or third dragon projects. There is a classic saying — the dragon head is made of iron, while the second dragon is like flowing water. The second dragon is very changeable, but the potential of the dragon head that most people have a consensus on and are bullish on in the market is actually greater. You can participate in some other opportunities for new listings, but when this narrative begins to trend upwards, I personally will continuously increase my position in the dragon head assets with some of the profits I've made. When it reaches a satisfactory stage in my mind, then I will proceed with overall profit-taking.

The second point is something a predecessor taught me when participating in the primary market, I find it very valuable, which is dynamic rebalancing. This is really important for primary players. You can think of it as the first half and second half of the bull market. When I participate in these primary market opportunities in the first half of the bull market, whether it's on the BTC chain, Ethereum chain, or SOL chain, I will periodically process the returns brought by the primary market in stages. For example, every week or half a month, I will do a dynamic rebalancing, reconfiguring my primary positions. For example, if at the beginning I set BTC to be 50% of the total position each time I rebalance, primary positions to be 30%, and USDT liquidity to be 20%. Through this phased rebalancing, the position structure can be healthier and the drawdown smaller. In the second half, you can gradually reduce the BTC position, allocate more positions to USDT, and reduce the primary positions. In this process, your primary returns will constantly be converted into BTC and USDT, thereby avoiding large drawdowns due to market volatility. So when trading in the primary market, you must do dynamic rebalancing. Because many times, what you believe is soaring on the candlestick chart, how much profit you have made, and how much you have bagged, are actually three different things. Dynamic rebalancing can help you maintain a healthy position in the primary market and make more rational decisions.

Alex: Understood, in fact, it is about setting a discipline for ourselves to manage some of our human weaknesses through this discipline. Next, please let Colin speak.

Colin: I believe I started dollar-cost averaging into BTC at the very beginning of this cycle, around September to December 2023. At that time, I was following my own on-chain cycle system, which was based on some on-chain signals. Although I didn't buy the absolute bottom, as I might have been influenced by market sentiment at the time and had some fear of missing out, I still followed the signals and my own trading plan to invest in BTC at a slightly later time. I held onto this trade from the end of last year until the beginning of this year, and this trade has brought me the greatest return over the past one to two years because Bitcoin has truly outperformed in this cycle.

If I must admit, I liquidated my Bitcoin position at the beginning of the year. Although looking back now, I missed out on the uptrend from $103,000 to the current price, I carefully reviewed my performance during that time, and my profit during that period was only from the Funding Fee. Even if I hadn't liquidated at the beginning of the year, I might not have achieved better results by now. As just mentioned by another guest, if we exert more effort into trading at the wrong time, we may not necessarily make more profit; instead, we might incur losses. I strongly agree with this perspective. My system and analysis already indicated at the end of last year that 2025 would be a difficult year to operate and a year of great challenges. Therefore, I chose to liquidate my position at that time and instead adopted a strategy to earn the Funding Fee. This actually helped me adjust my mindset significantly. Otherwise, if I had held my position at that time or even gone all-in on BTC spot as before, I might have made more unfavorable trades due to the increased external difficulties. Hence, for this trade, although I did miss out on the top portion of this recent rally, if I were to go back to the beginning of the year, I would still make the same choice. Otherwise, both my mindset and operations might have morphed.

Another operation that I think was quite good was in early April of this year. At that time, the market experienced severe panic due to tariffs, not only in the Bitcoin market but also in the U.S. stock market, which faced a similar situation. I observed a very interesting phenomenon at that time, which I would like to share with everyone here. Usually, when we look at the three major U.S. stock indices, their fluctuations are usually very stable, perhaps fluctuating by 1–2% intraday, within a small range. However, from the first to the second week of April, the opening fluctuations of the stock indices had become so exaggerated that the market seemed to have broken. For example, an index might surge by 3% initially, only to then plummet, with a potential decline of up to 5%. Just by looking at the indices themselves, one could already sense that the market was experiencing an extreme panic. So, at that time, I re-entered all the U.S. stock positions I had previously cleared out. There was also an interesting observation point at that time: in Taiwan, we have a national security fund for the stock market which will announce its market entry to the public under specific circumstances.

Retracing history, you will find that every time the National Team announced its entry, it was almost always at a relatively good position in the Taiwan stock market, with a historically high success rate. Interestingly, the chosen timing not only corresponded to a good entry point in the Taiwan stock market but also a good entry point in the US stock market. I don't know the specific reason; perhaps they are really skilled. However, besides observing the unusual index fluctuations, I also saw this news, so I decided to fully re-enter the US stock market on April 9. Subsequently, it indeed proved that I caught a good low point, and the subsequent market trend has been rising. I believe this is the best move I made this year, even though it is not related to crypto, but this part is worth sharing. In the future, if anyone sees a similar situation again, such as extremely exaggerated volatility in the stock market index, they can observe whether the market has entered a stage of panic. This extreme image should not appear, but once it does, attention can be directed there.

Alex: Understood. I feel that what Colin just mentioned about the stock market's massive fluctuations and the National Team's entry, both backgrounds indicate that emotions have gone haywire, and prices have deviated significantly. This is not only seen in the stock market. In the last bear market cycle, during events like the collapse of Luna in May 2020 and the collapse of FTX in November 2022, where Ethereum could drop by 20% in a day, these are all times of extreme emotions. Entering at that time, as long as the relative position is at a historically low level, will generally yield good results in the long run.

Mistakes and Lessons Learned in This Cycle

Alex: So, moving on to the next question. Up to this point in this cycle, what do you think is the biggest mistake you've made in your investments? How would you summarize and review your experience?

Colin: Alright, actually, this question was briefly touched upon in my previous episode with Alex. I believe the most painful experience in this cycle was my excessive trust in Ethereum's L2 position. Although ETH is still the king of L2, in the early and middle stages of the bull market, I had already started accumulating Bitcoin. During the early to middle period, I wanted to earn some Alpha through ETH. My logic at the time was that ETH and BTC have a high correlation, and ETH's volatility is higher. Since the bull market had just begun, ETH's upside potential should be greater than BTC's. So, I converted some of my BTC spot into ETH, effectively taking a long position on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. In hindsight, this move was a significant failure. Although I didn't lose money, I missed out on significant potential returns.

If I remember correctly, in the first half of last year, the ETH/BTC exchange rate was essentially fluctuating around 0.05. It started trending downwards after the major drop on August 5th. At that time, I missed out on potential gains, which is also known as opportunity cost. Back then, I thought Ethereum was a top-tier project, unparalleled in its excellence. Its market capitalization was significantly higher than that of the third and fourth cryptocurrencies. Around that time, Bitcoin had just been approved for the so-called ETF, and Ethereum was also hyped up with this expectation, which later indeed came true. I had a bit of FOMO at that time, thinking of replicating the situation as Bitcoin had a great run after the ETF approval, so Ethereum might also have a similar run. But reality did not align with my hopes; after the ETF listing, it became a channel for old holders to exit. I believe this lesson is something everyone should acknowledge and keep in mind: in our current cryptocurrency market, apart from Bitcoin, we really shouldn't have too strong faith in any other coin.

Belief is a double-edged sword. For example, if you believe in and hold a particular coin, making a huge profit, multiplying your investment by hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of times. But because the odds are very good, it inevitably leads to a very low success rate. It's a relationship of mutual offset. If you encounter a trading opportunity today with high odds and a high success rate, then there will certainly be another issue: the frequency of such opportunities is very low. It's impossible for all three conditions to be met simultaneously. Another issue with belief is that it can lead to your asset curve facing a significant MDD (Max DrawDown), meaning a very large drawdown. If the MDD is too high, it's a significant taboo in the trading realm. Even if there is a subsequent sharp increase, what if there isn't? Because your success rate is very low, if you experience an 80% loss, you would need to multiply your investment by five times just to break even.

This is a lesson I've learned from my own experience. I believe that at this stage in the market, apart from Bitcoin, no other coin is something you can genuinely have very strong faith in, buy and hold without moving, not even Ethereum. In December last year, when Trump was elected, based on some events and data, I liquidated this batch of Ethereum at around 4000. I was actually very reluctant at that time because it hadn't even reached its previous high. I was still wondering if Trump's election would push Ethereum to a new high, but it didn't. After all, at that time, the signals and some data supported me to sell, so despite my reluctance, I still executed the sale. In hindsight, this operation was correct and made up for the opportunity cost I had lost before.

On-chain Nomad: These issues are really all paved with money; behind every point is an experience of losing a considerable amount of money. The first point I want to share is: don't bet on price movements in the short term. Because the essence of short-term trading is to find some asymmetric opportunities, those with high success rates and also high odds. If, in the process of assessing opportunities, we gamble on whether it will rise or fall, or bet on what the whales will do, the more you introduce a gambling element, the lower your success rate in judging that opportunity becomes. Looking back on many of my past experiences of losses, it often came down to too much gambling and not enough reliance on my own trading logic or judgment. Speculating on or guessing the future movement; this is often not reliable.

The second point is a very deadly issue for novice players: not having a strict stop-loss, or not setting a stop-loss. This issue is not only reflected in the opening position but is also crucial when selling or taking profit. For example, during the previous Trump coin craze, I participated in trading using several accounts—some were constantly selling, while some accounts had relatively deep buy-ins. One of the deep buy-in accounts saw roughly a 20x increase from the entry point to the peak, resulting in significant gains. However, due to a lack of a firm grasp on the concept of stop-loss or selling strictly when the price falls below a certain point, or rather a failure to execute it properly, the gains experienced a huge drawdown, which was truly painful. Therefore, as a beginner, one must pay attention to the issue of stop-loss, which includes not only cost-stop but also profit-stop.

The third point is inadequate research, which is also a very deadly issue. Sometimes, you may feel that you have conducted research, but upon hindsight, you realize that it was actually very superficial and incomplete. For example, before you buy an asset, have you clearly defined your reasons for buying it? Have you decided how much position you will take? How long do you plan to hold it? What is your expected return on investment? Have you systematically reviewed the project's information sources, skilled traders, monitored KOL groups, public domain information on Twitter, etc., before buying? Or have you thoroughly researched before selling, repeating the same steps? I think this is crucial because sometimes we delude ourselves into thinking we have done research when, in fact, we are deceiving ourselves. Insufficient research can also affect buying and selling actions.

Above are the three main points that I believe are crucial. There are some smaller points as well, such as controlling position size when bottom-fishing or averaging down; avoid blindly increasing positions as the price falls, as it can be fatal. Also, refrain from participating in trades while doing other activities, such as shopping outside or playing games and seizing an opportunity. Trading efficiency tends to be poor in such situations, making it very easy to lose money. These are some of the painful experiences.

Alex: Okay, the shared insights are very detailed and valuable. Originally, our next question was about the most critical experience or investment insight you have gained in this cycle and whether there is anything you think can be reused as a core takeaway in the next cycle? However, both of you have already mentioned many similar insights in your previous answers. Besides what you just discussed, if you were to summarize the most important takeaway or insight from this cycle in one or two sentences, what would it be?

Colin: I think there is one more point worth sharing, which is an observation I made in March last year. At that time, BTC had risen all the way to $73,000 to $74,000, marking the first major upswing. However, if you compare the sentiment in the crypto market with that of the U.S. stock market, you will notice a significant phenomenon: the U.S. stock market was actually moving sideways at that time, not as enthusiastic, and not steadily climbing as it does during a real uptrend. But the sentiment in the BTC market was very hot at that time. Another peculiar situation that few may recall is that, at that time, the interest rate cut expectations in the overall macro environment were actually quite suppressed. The U.S. stock market had already reacted to this, but the Bitcoin market showed no reaction at all. So, I found that a bit strange at the time. Therefore, in April, I actually sold off a significant portion of my altcoin positions. As we all know, Bitcoin was in a sideways consolidation from March all the way to October, while altcoins chose to follow a bearish trend in the same period.

In this observation, I would like to highlight two points. First, we don't necessarily have to focus only on the information or sentiment within the crypto community. We can try to compare the sentiment within the crypto community to other markets such as the stock market, commodity market, or bond market. I think this is a quite insightful perspective. Another point is, assuming we believe the bull market is not over yet but want to take some protective measures, apart from taking partial profits, in the selection of assets, first, you must hold onto your Bitcoin; second, eliminate some of the relatively weaker assets. For example, if you originally allocated to five altcoins, you can start by removing the weaker ones among them. We can prioritize removing high-risk, weak assets. This is also a way to reduce overall risk. These are two points that I find insightful.

On-chain Nomad: Regarding this issue, I also have a point that I consider very important. If I had to mention just one, it would be crucial to solidify your trading system. I believe this is a key, perhaps the sole key, to distinguishing whether a top-tier player can achieve A8 or even A9. This point resonates deeply with me personally. Whether it's myself or observing those skilled traders such as 0xsun, Dayu, Lengjing, and Aoying, they all have their very robust trading systems. You can distinctly sense their trading logic. We often identify an opportunity through emotion or logic, then use our accumulated trading habits to react, validate our previous trading logic and system, and finally lock in profits. However, this system or logic heavily relies on experience.

For example, when I entered the industry in 2023, I had already observed 0xsun, Lengjing, Laser Cat, James Monkey, Wang Xiaoer. Were they always so skilled? No. At the beginning of 2023, Lengjing was also involved in more grassroots-level activities. However, why were they able to seize major opportunities in the Trump coin or the subsequent meme trend? It's because they had already solidified their system beforehand. When liquidity arrived, the tide surged, and opportunities increased, they could better seize these opportunities and expand their gains. I believe this is the key difference between an A8 or A9 top-tier trader and a PVP top-level trader. If we lack such experience, can it be compensated for? I believe it can. For instance, taking Pump coin as an example, its reaction time after opening is very short. If you don't have a very solid trading system, what can you do to react quickly? There is a solution, you can thoroughly preset different scenarios.

If you consider all possibilities, devise contingency plans, then your preparation for participating in the opening will be more thorough and purposeful. This can to some extent compensate for the deficiencies or incompleteness of your trading system. As for improvement, I think it's quite simple, just thoroughly review each trade after it concludes. I recently realized that writing daily reports is crucial for top-tier players. I've seen some top players, including the host Alex, have the habit of writing daily reports. In this process, you are actually honing your summary and review of events and trading actions. Those that confirm the correct logic will stay in your mind, and those that confirm mistakes will also become experiential lessons in your mind, so I believe both of these points are very important.

I would also like to share a paragraph that I think is closely related to this topic, which I saw in a previous article. It consists of four sentences that I consider very classic: Risk, whether it be changes in the era, policies, unforeseen events, and other uncontrollable factors, is something everyone must face. The risks we face ourselves, such as chasing highs, panic selling, hesitation, and similar situations, often stem from the lack of systematic training at the individual level, which exacerbates losses. Whether you can make money actually depends on whether you have trained reflexive responses. The biggest enemy of retail investors is not the market but their own emotions and lack of trained habits. In my opinion, these few sentences also provide a good summary of this topic.

Alex: That's great. The first point is about continuously refining and accumulating personal trading systems. When the system is not yet perfect, at the very least, one must have a well-prepared trading plan in advance to make adjustments.

Judgment on Altseason

Alex: So, next, let's talk about a topic that everyone is very concerned about but has also been quite painful, which is the issue of altcoins. During this altseason, even though there has been a slight rebound in the last two days and some signs of improvement, altcoins are still significantly lagging behind BTC and ETH. In your upcoming cyclical trading plans, do you have an evaluation and preparation for altseason included? Are you looking forward to altseason? Do you think there will be a large-scale market movement, and will there be a good wealth effect? Of course, besides some secondary targets, this includes some smaller altcoins compared to Ethereum that the on-chain community teachers are paying attention to in terms of on-chain opportunities.

On-chain Community Teacher: Alright, I will only talk about the on-chain part because I'm actually not very familiar with the secondary market altcoins. I believe that the primary market shows very clear cyclicality. You can understand it as "harvesting crops," and indeed, such a process is necessary. After the primary players have settled for a period of time, the market's newbies may have grown taller, or in other words, the newbies have grown stronger, and the liquidity has settled quite well. So when certain narratives emerge, whether they are in the form of inscriptions or memes, the newbies flock in, and market liquidity improves somewhat, and then the primary market's bull market on-chain emerges, attracting external flows to join and drive the market up. However, after the recent harvest of Memes not long ago, I think the newbies have been harvested enough, and it actually requires a period of convalescence. After that, the "far water" of the primary market will start to flow again. Therefore, my approach to the upcoming primary market is still cautiously participating. However, I have also observed a change in this process, which is that recently I can clearly feel that the primary market is more observant of manipulation than before and is now more concerned about whether there is a team manipulating the market. For example, in the recent hype surrounding the PUMP and BONK platforms, it is very obvious that BONK has institutional players involved, leading the typical pull-up process, attracting everyone to play in the market. So if you still want to participate in primary opportunities recently, you must follow the manipulation; do not play in plates with a high retail investor content. The lower the retail investor content, the greater I think the potential of the plate, which is a significant change I have observed.

Next, I also have a question to ask Alex and Colin. Recently, everyone seems to have some renewed fantasies about Ethereum, and there have been a lot of voices suggesting that Ethereum could also potentially see a doubling in price just like BTC, reaching a new high of around 10,000 points. I would like to hear from both teachers on how they view this.

Alex: Alright, as a separate topic, let's discuss this in a moment. Now, going back to what the on-chain wanderer mentioned earlier, the current opportunity on Layer 1 is in a waiting state, waiting for the retail investors to recuperate before new narratives emerge and take action. If we have to consider strategies, it may be relatively more beneficial to participate in projects backed by market makers with a clear roadmap; whereas projects relying solely on consensus, community, and emotion-driven factors may currently pose greater risks. Colin, what are your thoughts on Altcoin Season?

Colin: Regarding Altcoin Season, I have two main points to share. The first point is that we are all here in this market to make money. As long as there is money to be made, no one really cares if there is an Altcoin Season or not. Even without an Altcoin Season, as long as you can make significant profits, I believe everyone can accept that. So, I think before discussing Altcoin Season, we need to address a more fundamental question—when you choose to buy or even trade altcoins, you must first realize one thing: altcoins are highly volatile. The reason most retail investors want to buy altcoins is usually because they have the potential to outperform Bitcoin.

Of course, when they drop, they also tend to drop more than Bitcoin. But regardless of your strategy, you need to understand one thing: the decisive factor in each of your buy orders or trades still lies in its expected value. Similar to playing the lottery, you can win a large sum once, but the odds of winning are very low. This illustrates the relationship between risk and reward. As for altcoins, if you intend to execute a 'buy and hold' strategy on them today, I think it's not quite okay because their expected value is likely not positive. Suppose you bought an altcoin in early 2024, and later it experienced a period of stagnation similar to Bitcoin's, causing the altcoin to drop by 80%. Even if it then increases by 4 times, you would still be at a loss, and your initial investment would not be recovered. This is a simple math problem. Regardless of whether Altcoin Season will come or not, or whether you are anticipating it, I believe that this proposition itself is not fundamental enough. Returning to the first principles of the market, for altcoins to rise, there needs to be an inflow of capital. If there were to be an Altcoin Season, it would mean a significant influx of funds into all existing altcoins at the moment to qualify as a season. However, given the current number of altcoins, achieving a universal rise is extremely challenging.

Next, let's talk about the second point. Some people may have noticed that during the first major uptrend in 2024, which was at the beginning of the year, the altcoin market actually rallied along with Bitcoin. However, it then went through a rather painful period until November, around the time of Trump's election. At that point, the altcoins experienced another surge, but this time the surge was very different from the one at the beginning of the year. The altcoin rally at that time was characterized by sector rotation. For example, one day DeFi coins surged, the next day platform coins surged, and the day after that oracle coins surged, and so on, very distinctly. One sector would surge by dozens of percentage points today, and then another sector would take its place in two to three days. This was no longer a general market-wide surge like at the beginning of the year. At that time, I realized that with a president-elect who was considered at least crypto-friendly in terms of performance, an event of such magnitude that drove Bitcoin to well above $100,000, the altcoin market's movement was based on rotation rather than a unified surge. I found this to be quite unreasonable. In theory, it should have surged more violently. Rotation indicates that there isn't enough capital.

We can imagine that a group of savvy investors, after one sector surged, took their profits and moved on to the next sector, then continued to the next sector, hence this rotation. I observed this phenomenon from that time on and maintained a pessimistic view of the upcoming altcoin market. Because under the influence of such a significant event, only a rotational market appeared, and the direction favored by capital was already very clear. After all, the stage was occupied by Bitcoin throughout 2024, and at the end of the year, there was this signal of rotation. From that time to the present, I have been quite pessimistic about the altcoin season. There have been recent signs of improvement, but every time the altcoin market shows signs of improvement, it is basically driven up by the substantial rise of Bitcoin or Ethereum. The key is not whether it rises or not, but whether it can sustain its gains after the rise.

When we talk about sustaining, it doesn't necessarily have to continue to rise; at the very least, it should hold its ground. Suppose an altcoin rises by 80% and then slowly falls back; this is very painful for holders and may involve a process of negative expected value. So, going back to the first point, essentially, if you want to trade altcoins today, you need to realize one thing first: you are playing a "timing" game. What you need to consider is not whether it can rise more than Bitcoin in the future but what happens when it falls. If the retracement is too significant, even if it later rises several times, you may still not be able to get back to your cost basis. Last April to May, there were many acquaintances around me who thought altcoins had dropped enough, so they started buying heavily. However, many later couldn't resist selling at a loss. So, I believe this experience needs to be shared with everyone—you need to realize that the upside potential is significant, but the downside is at most 100%. In reality, if you drop by 80%, you need to increase fivefold to break even. Therefore, it is about "timing"; in other words, buying altcoins not only requires buying at the right position but also choosing the right timing. Altcoin trading is not just about speculating on volatility; time is also a critical factor.

Alex: Understood, very well said. Regarding the topic of altcoin season, we actually discussed this in the previous episode with two other guests as well. At that time, I also shared our team's internal views, which have not changed since then: we are not optimistic. The conclusion is very simple, even though altcoins have recently seen some rebound, our assessment remains unchanged, especially regarding the sustainability of altcoins. The reason is straightforward, that is, the fundamental aspects of altcoins are generally very poor. As Colin just mentioned, this round of disillusionment with altcoin valuations is typical, characterized by cyclical changes. Around February or March 2024, altcoins performed explosively, giving everyone a sense of déjà vu from 2021, constantly discussing projects in the group chat, one surging today, another surging tomorrow, each one booming, making people feel like they need to throw their money at it desperately. After that round of bubble burst, around the time of Trump's election in 2024 as Colin mentioned, Bitcoin saw a surge first, and altcoins also started to rise. However, this round of rise in altcoins was visibly weak and hesitant. Altcoins were quickly replaced by the craze for meme coins. Liquidity vanished, and everyone lost interest. This round may be considered a small rebound of altcoins in this cycle, but in my opinion, this round is even weaker. For example, we recently saw Ethereum rise by 22%, but looking at its market value compared to those similar Layer 1 and Layer 2 altcoins, most of them saw less than 22% increase and did not surpass Ethereum's rise. This performance can only be seen as trying to keep up with the rise. Some altcoins with seemingly large increases in value often experienced significant past declines, such as Algo and projects like Story that focus on IP chains. They have seen a surge greater than Ethereum, with recent increases of 30% to 40%, but this is mainly due to their larger previous declines. Therefore, our team's current assessment of altcoins remains the same: poor fundamentals, weak narratives, and continuous valuation collapses. It can also be understood as a sign of the market maturing, as part of the process of investor maturation. From this perspective, it is actually quite reasonable.

Preparing for Cross-Industry Investments

Alex: Next, let's move on to the last question we had planned for today, and then we can discuss Ethereum-related topics. This question is about a situation many of us are familiar with: currently, many cryptocurrency investors and even professionals believe that opportunities in the industry are rapidly dwindling, so they are preparing to explore employment and investment opportunities outside the industry, such as in the U.S. stock market, Hong Kong stock market, and even the A-share market. The A-share market has actually performed decently recently. Do you two have any specific thoughts on this matter, or have your own actions changed? Would you also consider opportunities outside of crypto? We know Colin invests in U.S. stocks; I remember you primarily focus on index funds. Have you planned to start researching individual stocks in the U.S. market? As for the on-chain nomads, do you have any preparations in this regard?

Colin: Yes, I have indeed invested in US stocks, mainly through index funds. Regarding whether the opportunities in the cryptocurrency industry are becoming scarcer, I think, as mentioned earlier, this market is gradually maturing. It is gradually entering the mainstream view of our society in various forms through more channels. More and more people are starting to see Bitcoin and even want to participate. And indeed, the market cap of BTC is continuously growing at a visible pace. This process is like Bitcoin transitioning from a primitive era to a modern technological society. The first thing is that the volatility of the Bitcoin market will significantly decrease. At the same time, various large institutional funds from the traditional financial market, such as "whales" and "sharks," will also enter. Whether it's arbitrage opportunities or high-frequency trading opportunities, they will want a piece of the pie. Once they enter, the dividends will become less and less. This is actually like a game theory, where as the opponents become stronger, this pie is gradually divided, and the dividends will naturally become smaller and smaller.

Many people are starting to feel that the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly challenging and no longer as pristine as before. For example, the altcoin season did not materialize in this cycle. As Alex just mentioned, the price increase of Ethereum is not much different from the price increase of some Layer 1 and Layer 2 altcoins in its ecosystem; Ethereum even has a slight edge. This can actually be seen from the perspective of the incremental funds from traditional financial institutions. If a large amount of funds flows into crypto from the outside world, their first choice will surely not be some old-school altcoins. At most, they will just have some fun with them and then move on to something else. If today is indeed about allocating funds to invest in a market, it's unlikely to invest in assets other than Bitcoin. Speaking of Ethereum, it now has an ETF that can be traded in the US market, although not directly traded, but at least it already has dedicated ETF products. So, it could experience a significant price increase, even surpassing traditional altcoins because if this bull market is dominated by institutional funds, the second target they can choose besides Bitcoin is Ethereum. This statement makes people very FOMO, but I'm not saying that I am now very bullish on Ethereum because I still have a lot of respect for the top signal of Bitcoin.

What I want to say is this: if the Bitcoin market is to continue to advance, a situation of the strong getting stronger will emerge. Now Solana is also about to have an ETF, although it is not yet formal, relatively niche, but it has already passed through. If in the future Solana, like Ethereum, has a complete ETF purchase channel, I still believe that, when external funds consider investment allocation, the first choice will be Bitcoin, the second will be Ethereum, and there is currently no third. This is my current personal bias. Are opportunities becoming scarcer? From the perspective I just described, of course, they are. But to be more precise, it should actually be said that the difficulty of obtaining excess returns in this market will become increasingly challenging. If you are still a Bitcoin believer, a holder, then as long as you hold onto Bitcoin steadily, with the continuous influx of off-exchange funds, they are actually helping you carry the sedan chair, helping you take over, and you are the most reassured type of person. But if you hope to earn excess returns through Bitcoin or even other currencies, to outperform Bitcoin's performance, the difficulty will certainly skyrocket. Because your opponents are a group of experienced, decades-long traditional financial players, these are all opponents at the level of "whales" and "sharks." If you want to compete with them, the difficulty will be very high. The real difficulty lies here.

That being said, the Bitcoin market has been around for less than twenty years so far. Compared to traditional markets such as stocks, forex, commodities, and raw materials, it is still a very, very new market. While opportunities within the industry may decrease, it still holds many opportunities and dividends compared to other mature markets. You can imagine that when the Bitcoin market surpasses one hundred years, it will still be a relatively young asset compared to the stock market. Of course, as time goes on, volatility will decrease, and competition will become stronger, which is only natural. At this current stage, being less than twenty years old, there are still plenty of opportunities compared to other markets.

On-chain Nomad: I believe this issue ultimately depends on the size of the funds. The smaller the fund size, the higher the growth efficiency within the cryptocurrency space. Personally, I plan to allocate some of my funds in cryptocurrency, US stocks, and Hong Kong stocks. This is mainly due to two considerations: first, to reduce my own risk since having all funds concentrated in the cryptocurrency space poses inherent risks. Second, I hope to expand the range of my trades, meaning that when opportunities arise in the US or Hong Kong stock markets in the future, I can also participate more effectively.

Are You Still Bullish on Ethereum?

Alex: Let's discuss the Ethereum question that On-chain Nomad just brought up. Ethereum has recently experienced a significant rebound, rising from below 1400 in this wave to over 3400 now. There has been a recent surge in bullish sentiment towards Ethereum, coupled with a large number of publicly traded companies buying Ethereum, with the number of listed companies holding Ethereum as a reserve increasing daily. Will Ethereum's future price increase help close the gap with Bitcoin's exchange rate? Can it rise to a level of 8000 or even 10000? Let me share my personal opinion first.

Firstly, I believe that Ethereum's fundamentals have not seen much improvement at present, which is the first point. It is different from Bitcoin, where the fundamentals of this round have significantly improved compared to the previous two cycles, including the expansion of regulatory compliance, the consensus on its position as a non-sovereign asset electronic gold, which has been further strengthened at the institutional and national levels. More sovereign institutions are buying, and there are state-level reserve funds being established. Although the number of these reserve funds established is lower than our expectations from last year, and the establishment of a reserve fund at the federal level in the US that we talked about last year is not materializing in this current Trump policy cycle, there is no expected progress, and the margins are improving. I think that its rise to this stage, an increase of almost double that of the last round, is still quite reasonable. However, I believe Ethereum's fundamentals are worse than the previous cycle. Because in the last cycle, Ethereum, as a smart contract platform, was essentially a computing system that can be understood as a platform providing on-chain computing resources. The system's value premise is that there are enough applications running on it and a robust ecosystem, with sufficient demand for the system's resources supporting its valuation. However, in reality, all public chains in this round, including SOL, which has performed well in this round, have far fewer applications than the last round. It's just that the trading volume and activity in this round's meme space exceed the last round, which may be a reason why SOL has seen a relatively good surge, as it is, after all, the main meme battlefield in this round.

However, Ethereum lags behind in resource requirements and on-chain data compared to the previous bull run. Additionally, this bull run has seen a significant increase in Rollup solutions, causing users and applications to migrate to layer-two solutions. After the London upgrade, the resource consumption on Ethereum was further reduced, contributing to its weakening fundamentals. A significant portion of the influx of funds is also coming from the US stock market and Wall Street, especially after the introduction of ETFs. The recent surge in Ethereum's price is largely attributed to funds from the US stock market and Wall Street. Even though the source of funds may be similar, their long-term outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum remains different. Bitcoin's fundamental narrative, as digital gold, remains solid and unchanged in this market cycle. On the other hand, Ethereum is fundamentally a computer system, more akin to a tech company. Its fundamentals have not significantly improved even during price surges. Despite Ethereum's recent price increase, its average on-chain Gas price remains low at 1–2, signaling congestion. Even during the bear market of 2022, the Gas price was not as low as it is now, which has become the norm for Ethereum this year. Therefore, I believe these fundamentals will have a long-term pull on the price. Given this fundamental backdrop, expecting Ethereum to surge as dramatically as Bitcoin is challenging. For Ethereum to reach $10,000, signaling a doubling in price, it would be on par with Bitcoin. If Ethereum reaches $10,000, Bitcoin would likely not remain at its current $120,000 but probably rise to $140,000–$150,000, effectively doubling both assets' values.

Considering the lack of fundamental improvement compared to Bitcoin, I believe it will be challenging for Ethereum to reach $10,000 or achieve a price performance double that of the previous bull run. However, this is not to say that I am not optimistic about Ethereum's future price potential. The primary driver of Ethereum's current price surge is what is known as a "coin-stock company's capital flywheel." The reason behind its significant surge is that the Ethereum reserve-led coin-stock companies are still in motion. A pivotal event indicating the activation of this flywheel was the realization that not only large, established companies like MicroStrategy could raise sufficient capital from the secondary market to buy Bitcoin and complete the loop through stock issuance, a process that has undergone multiple rounds of validation. Initially, many people could not see that Ethereum reserve-led companies could achieve a similar flywheel effect. Now, the flywheel appears to have started spinning from late June to mid-July. Projects like SharpLink (code is Sbet) can raise billions of dollars weekly, which can then be used to purchase Ethereum. As the flywheel gains momentum, Ethereum's price rises, causing the company to appreciate further, creating a wealth effect cycle. US-based buying funds, including many retail investors, also represent "dumb money." Once they notice the surge, they perceive the strategy and the company as favorable and proceed to buy more, providing funds to these companies to purchase Ethereum. The flywheel is currently in motion. It is unclear how high the price's positive feedback loop can push before coming to a halt.

However, personally, I think it would be quite difficult for this flywheel to rally to 8000 or 10000. Nevertheless, there are also some expectations for fundamental improvements in Ethereum. Currently, it can only be called expectations. Vitalik Buterin actually mentioned over a month ago that Ethereum's key goal this year is to achieve a tenfold performance improvement, and he also provided a clear deadline by the end of this year. I believe the overall downturn in applications is a problem for all public blockchains, and one entity cannot change that. However, if a tenfold performance improvement can be achieved, Ethereum can at least compete to regain the market share previously taken by SOL, BNB Chain, and some high-performance chains, including some Layer 2 market share. It can regain some users, transaction volume, and developers, which would definitely benefit the overall valuation stabilization. Based on this point, about a month ago, I switched some of my Bitcoin position to Ethereum, but not a significant amount. At that time, due to concerns about the fundamentals, I completely did not anticipate Ethereum's price increase. At that time, I might have guessed that it would increase, but I did not expect it to be for these reasons and in this manner. This is my current overview of Ethereum.

Colin: I think Alex just provided a detailed description and analysis of Ethereum's fundamentals, which he shared with everyone. I am not as detailed in my analysis of Ethereum's fundamentals as Alex, but I think there is an angle for everyone to consider. Like Alex just mentioned, companies like SharpLink have been continuously buying recently, and their current holdings, if I remember correctly, should be around 300,000 coins. I think this buying volume is already quite exaggerated. They have been continuously financing to mimic the MicroStrategy approach. However, the reason why the MicroStrategy approach has had a strong effect on Bitcoin, and even more companies are imitating MicroStrategy, treating BTC as their corporate reserve, is because Bitcoin is limited in supply. I think this is very important. It's because it's limited in supply. Assume that more and more companies like MicroStrategy buy it and then indicate they won't sell, just hold it there, and hold it for a very long time until they have no choice but to sell. Once they do this, it's like locking up that only part of the supply available in the market. For Bitcoin, this is, of course, a bullish factor because the supply decreases, which is naturally good news for the price.

But Ethereum is different. Ethereum has a so-called issuance mechanism, it has an inflation rate. I think this issue itself needs to return to what Alex just mentioned about fundamentals. If Ethereum itself does not introduce a very innovative, revolutionary application today, if its gas fees remain at that low level, Ethereum will continue to increase in supply. Even if these companies continue to buy, they cannot finance an infinite amount of money to buy all the Ethereum on the market and create a situation where Ethereum is unavailable. This situation will not occur because Ethereum will continue to increase in supply, unlike Bitcoin. So I think the issue of limited supply versus unlimited supply in these companies' treasury reserves or strategic reserves has a significantly different effect.

Returning to the previous question, I feel that a target of 10,000 is a bit too far off considering the current price. Personally, I am not one to call out prices because firstly, it seems too far off. With the price currently around 3400, for us to see 10,000, we would need a very clear valuation model or a specific rationale. We should at least evaluate the amount of incoming funds or have data-supported insights from other aspects. If the price is speculated to reach 10,000 purely based on some news or because everyone is optimistic and buying Ethereum, then it is hard for me to quantify and lacks a convincing basis. I am generally skeptical of voices in the market calling for 10,000. As long as the asset is rising, there will always be individuals calling for even higher prices. I believe that for each market participant, the key is to not be swayed by emotions when assessing Ethereum's price increase. Have the original facts about it disappeared now? Or have new facts emerged? This brings us back to the fundamental element that Alex mentioned earlier. If the Gas fee is still low, does that mean the on-chain activities have not seen any revolutionary developments or new inventions, prompting a reason for more ETH to be burned? If not, then this current surge is purely based on a simple supply and demand principle: more buyers than sellers, leading certain companies to constantly buy in, especially companies like SharpLink, whose buying speed is truly exaggerated. In just a few weeks, they have already purchased 300,000 ETH. If the reason behind the surge is truly this, then it lacks a fundamental logic to support it. We could describe it in a slightly exaggerated manner as a bubble.

Of course, a bubble does not necessarily have to burst, but at the very least, it is not a completely healthy increase. It is not due to an improvement in fundamentals leading to a value increase, but rather a price increase. If the value has not changed, then it is a bubble. The probability of a bubble bursting is always higher than the probability of a healthy rise resulting in a fall. Therefore, I believe that for us, especially if you have not reduced your Ethereum holdings, and you see Ethereum continually rising, with some calling for 8000 and others for 10,000, you must be particularly cautious. It's not that it won't rise in the future; I also agree that currently, we cannot accurately assess how high it can rise. However, FOMO or emotions should never be reasons for buying in. I think this is something everyone, including myself, should remind themselves of. In fact, when I see Ethereum rising, I also feel the urge, but discipline is key here. Regretting missing out on Ethereum's price increase and then impulsively buying in is all noise and will not increase your trading expectancy. I will not make trading decisions based on emotions like these.

Alex: Let me add one more point. Actually, I believe that if Ethereum rises to four to five thousand, it is reasonable. We know that the previous high for Ethereum was around 4600–4700. If it rises to four to five thousand, it will just be back to the previous cycle's peak. Bitcoin's previous peak was 69,000, and it has now set a new record reaching around 120,000. As we just mentioned, Ethereum's fundamentals this cycle are inferior to the previous one, while Bitcoin's are superior. Therefore, Bitcoin hitting a new high is reasonable, and Ethereum being slightly higher than the previous cycle is also reasonable. Because in this cycle, Ethereum has risen from 1400 to over 3000, the main driver is not the fundamentals but the valuation recovery. The core points behind this valuation recovery: First, these institutions represented by SharpLink, which has Consensus's founder behind it, who is also Ethereum's co-founder, have formed a consortium to purchase Ethereum. Another point is what a former colleague mentioned during our internal ring event this morning. He said when SharpLink was just established, the stock price surged from a few dollars to over 100, then dropped to thirty or forty, and finally fell back to a few dollars. It went up and down, consolidating for a while.

However, in late June, they began fundraising, although the amount was not significant at first, only about two to three hundred million US dollars, and the premium was not high at that time, unlike now, where they can raise several billion in a week. Breaking this trend was Tom Lee, a highly influential figure on Wall Street. In June, he became the chairman of Bitmine, a prominent Ethereum purchasing company. He has always been bullish on Ethereum and has been intensively advocating for Ethereum this year. As a highly influential figure on Wall Street, taking on the role of chairman of a company focused on accumulating Ethereum, this iconic event ignited Wall Street's funding as well as retail investors' anticipation of Ethereum's value reassessment in the stock market. As a result, ETH surged from over 1000, through 2000, all the way to over 3000. This is the cause and background of the situation. Without Tom Lee, SharpLink's momentum might not have been able to pick up, and the stock price might still be hovering around a dozen dollars. This surge had many prerequisites. Our understanding of this event can actually help us consider other investment opportunities. Now I see many people also discussing that Ethereum's momentum has picked up, Bitcoin has gained traction, so should we consider laying out positions in other cryptocurrency stocks? For example, is it a good idea to accumulate SOL? How about accumulating hype coins? Recently, many companies related to BNB have gone public, are these opportunities? Therefore, we need to assess whether these tokens have the prerequisites to pick up momentum like Ethereum did.

I believe the first prerequisite has just been mentioned: whether these public companies have the ability to smoothly raise funds in the secondary market, whether they can raise tens of millions or even billions to buy coins. Currently, companies related to SOL and hype, very few are conducting large-scale fundraises from the market to buy coins. They do not have such strong fundraising capabilities, and more likely rely on private placements or targeted issuances, rather than purchasing from the relatively liquid secondary market. The second point is whether these assets have a figure as influential on Wall Street as Tom Lee to ignite a reassessment of their asset value? We should realize that Ethereum dropped from over 1000, through over 2000 US dollars, and then rebounded. However, tokens like BNB, SOL, Hype are currently at relatively high price levels, not oversold. So even at these high price levels, can they surge again? I believe this challenge is much greater than Ethereum's valuation recovery logic. Therefore, when discussing this issue, we need to analyze whether these assets have the prerequisites for Ethereum-like momentum. At the same time, we also need to consider their current price levels, which are different from Ethereum. As you can tell, our assessment of derivative token investment opportunities is somewhat cautious. They may be able to absorb some overflow attention from Ethereum's token, attracting some short-term incremental funds. Therefore, we have also seen many SOL-related public companies rising in the past couple of days, experiencing considerable gains. However, this increase is likely more due to the outflow effect of attention and funds. As for whether these token stocks can form a systemic surge like Ethereum, I am personally cautious about it.

Today, our podcast recording ran longer than usual, going beyond our original topic and delving into some discussion about Ethereum. Thank you to our two guest speakers for sharing their insights today.

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