Arthur Hayes: Major listed companies create continuous equity dilution pressure, further dragging down crypto market liquidity.

BlockBeats news, November 5 — In his latest article "D is for Dilution," Arthur Hayes pointed out that after SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, insiders and early investors may gradually unlock and sell large amounts of shares, creating sustained equity dilution pressure that suppresses stock prices and further weakens market confidence in the AI industry's profitability prospects.

According to his estimates, by the end of June 2027, SpaceX will have approximately 8.6 billion shares unlock, equivalent to adding about 50% more circulating shares; early IPO investors in Anthropic may face dilution of approximately 83%. For OpenAI, Hayes expects its IPO may adopt a similar arrangement, gradually releasing employee and early investor holdings after listing.

Continued pressure on stock prices will affect these companies' fundraising capacity: investors may demand higher bond yields or even refuse to provide funding, leading to rising financing costs for the AI industry and transmitting upstream to data centers, chips, and related enterprises.

If the AI-related credit market cools or freezes, the U.S. banking system's balance sheet expansion may slow, and dollar liquidity would contract accordingly, putting pressure on the crypto market. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks may respond to the crisis by releasing liquidity, which would benefit Bitcoin and crypto assets. Before that, Hayes stated that Maelstrom will temporarily remain on the sidelines, and believes that as data centers gradually come into operation, increased computing power supply may drive down computing costs, and AI projects such as FLOP Network and Genlayer may benefit.