Predict.fun: 77% probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers in US midterm elections

BlockBeats news, November 3 — Latest data from prediction market platform Predict.fun shows the probability of "Democrats winning both the Senate and the House" in the U.S. midterm elections is 77%. Mainstream polls also favor the Democrats: the Silver Bulletin's national congressional ballot polling average as of November 2 shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8.9 percentage points; the Seldon forecast model gives Democrats a 79% chance of winning the Senate and a 99% chance of winning the House.

The probability of "Republicans holding the Senate while Democrats win the House" is 19%, the second most likely scenario in the market's view. The Polling Forecast model notes that polls have overestimated Democrats in 5 of the past 6 elections; if polls this time similarly overestimate Democrats by 3.5 percentage points, the Senate would still remain under Republican control.

The probability of "Republicans holding both the Senate and the House" is 5%; the probability of "Democrats winning the Senate while Republicans hold the House" is 1%. Mainstream analysis currently holds that Democrats are most likely to gain a net 12 to 22 seats in the House, far exceeding the 3-seat threshold needed to retake a majority. Additionally, in the market related to "Democrats retaking the House," Predict.fun gives a probability of 96%.