Renowned Trader: If Bitcoin Holds $76,000, Bullish Outlook Remains; This Week's Midterm Elections and US Stock Earnings May Bring Significant Volatility

BlockBeats news, November 2: Renowned trader Doctor Profit posted that Binance's approximately $6.3 billion theft incident should be regarded as a black swan. He believes Bitcoin only fell about 5%, with lows near $76,400, showing strong resilience, but the previous $80,000 to $81,000 support zone and the daily EMA50 and MA50 have all been lost.

On-chain data shows that within 24 hours, 36,600 BTC from short-term holders in a loss state flowed into trading platforms; over the past 7 days, short-term holders deposited about 45,400 BTC into Binance. He also mentioned that the 24-hour realized loss was about $1.115 billion, and believes these data reflect obvious panic sentiment, but not all assets transferred to trading platforms should be directly regarded as already sold.

On the technical side, he pointed out that the daily RSI is about 34.7, the lowest since June 30; Bitcoin closed below the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands on October 29. In his view, these performances are more consistent with concentrated selling under a black swan shock rather than an ordinary correction. He still regards $76,000 as the key area for maintaining the bull market structure, citing reasons including that this level is close to the previous breakout zone, an important weekly support, and the 50-week moving average. He said at least 2 to 3 daily closes below this level are needed to confirm a breakdown; if it breaks, there is a risk of falling back to $67,000 to $69,000.

On the upside, attention should return to $80,000 to $81,000 and $82,000. He believes the market needs to reclaim the former support zone to prevent it from turning into resistance; reclaiming $82,000 would be an important signal for bulls to rebuild the structure. If it cannot be reclaimed for a long time, bearish forces may further strengthen.

Regarding positions, he said the long position with an average price of $80,400 and the spot position established from $60,000 are still being held, and as long as $76,000 holds, he will continue to lean toward the bull market continuation scenario. He also reminded that this week's U.S. midterm elections and earnings reports from multiple companies may bring significant volatility.