Benson Sun: Short-term selling pressure from stolen BTC is nearly zero; ETH is more likely to form selling pressure.

BlockBeats news, October 30: Coinkarma founder Benson Sun posted that in the Binance hack, officials have confirmed the freezing of approximately $2.5 billion in assets, about half of the total stolen, with the remainder mainly in BTC and ETH. The stolen BTC amounts to over $1 billion, but Bitcoin lacks a deep mixing pool similar to Tornado Cash, and the relevant addresses will be flagged by exchanges and on-chain analytics firms, making it far harder to cash out than ETH. Looking back at cases such as the 2016 Bitfinex hack where the stolen Bitcoin remained untouched for years, and the July this year Coldcard hack of about 1,800 BTC, of which 90% remained unmoved by early September, this incident is larger in scale; splitting addresses, mixing, and then discounted OTC sales could take years, and short-term selling pressure is nearly zero. If Binance uses SAFU to compensate and replenish Bitcoin, it could instead create buying pressure.

By contrast, large amounts of ERC-20 tokens swapped into ETH and then sent into Tornado are harder to trace, and the amount that could truly turn into market selling pressure may be in the range of over $1 billion. Benson Sun believes market confidence will be hit, but direct Bitcoin selling pressure is not as large as imagined, and calls on the industry to face up to security arrangements for hot wallet management, signature authorization, and quantum resistance in the post-AI era.