Robinhood Q3 Earnings Breakdown: Record Revenue but EPS Misses Expectations, Prediction Market Revenue Significantly Surpasses Crypto

BlockBeats news, October 28: Robinhood released its Q3 2026 financial report. Total net revenue for the quarter reached a record $1.42 billion (approximately $1.424 billion), up 12% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter; GAAP net income was $476 million, down 14% year-over-year, with diluted EPS of $0.51 (down 16% year-over-year), below market consensus (approximately $0.55-$0.57). Adjusted EPS was $0.60. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $808 million (+9% year-over-year), with a margin of 57%.

Performance was supported by strong trading revenue: trading-related revenue was $867 million (+19%), including options revenue of $399 million (+31%), equities revenue of $121 million (+41%), and event contracts (prediction markets) revenue of $173 million (more than 6x year-over-year, already surpassing crypto). Cryptocurrency revenue fell to $120 million (-55% year-over-year). Net income was dragged down by approximately $67 million in unrealized losses from the venture capital fund (RVI) (approximately $0.07/EPS).

Market dissatisfaction with the results was mainly concentrated on the slight shortfall in earnings and revenue. GAAP EPS was only $0.51, notably below the consensus expectation of approximately $0.55-$0.57, and net income fell 14% year-over-year, primarily dragged down by unrealized losses from the venture capital fund (approximately $0.07/EPS). Although revenue hit a new high, it was still slightly below some institutions' expectations of approximately $1.43-$1.44 billion, interpreted as a "slight miss." In addition, cryptocurrency revenue plunged 55% year-over-year to $120 million, further weighing on overall earnings elasticity, compounded by rising expenses, making margin performance fall short of some investors' expectations. These factors together led to an after-hours stock price decline of approximately 7%.

Despite pressure on the earnings side, there were still multiple strong performances in revenue and business structure. Total revenue hit a record and achieved double-digit growth, trading-related revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $867 million, with options (+31%) and equities (+41%) both performing prominently. Prediction markets (event contracts) revenue reached $173 million, more than 6x year-over-year, already surpassing cryptocurrency revenue and becoming an important growth engine, demonstrating significant product diversification results—excluding cryptocurrency, other businesses grew approximately 30% year-over-year.