Prediction market sees new account buy 'US to strike Yemen Houthi forces' one hour ago

According to PolyBeats monitoring, over the past hour, a new account bruhzil on the prediction market Polymarket has accumulated $1.7k in buys on "US x Yemen ceasefire will not last until November," at a buy probability of 2%. If a strike occurs, the position could return nearly 50x. The market rules state that if the US conducts qualifying military action against Yemen before November, the market resolves to "No"; otherwise, it resolves to "Yes."

Currently, what exists between the US side and the Houthis is more of an informal understanding brokered by Oman rather than a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. Reports from The Guardian and others say US officials have recently still been in contact with the Houthis in Muscat; the Houthis say the ceasefire reached in 2025 remains valid for US ships, but they may continue striking Saudi-related targets.

After Houthi strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid Airport on October 10–11, Trump once said "We may (retaliate). We'll see," but as of now there is still no public record of qualifying US military strikes on Yemeni land.

At the same time, fighting within Yemen has clearly escalated: UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg said in the Security Council in early October that the country has effectively slid back into "all-out war"; government forces are advancing offensives such as "Yemen Dawn," while the Houthis continue missile and drone strikes on Saudi infrastructure. The Associated Press reports that Washington provides Saudi Arabia with intelligence sharing and target identification, but the Trump administration has not yet resumed direct US military strikes on the Houthis.