Bitwise: Bitcoin implied volatility drops to a three-year low, long-term holders continue to distribute their holdings.

BlockBeats news, October 23 - Bitwise released a report stating that Bitcoin is currently showing resilience around $82,000, a level close to the cost basis of spot ETF holdings. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost basis at approximately $74,800 and the true market mean at around $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the market's invested capital is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two levels together may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.

Bitcoin's 30-day and 60-day trading ranges have narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0% respectively, and at-the-money implied volatility across tenors is near the bottom of the past three years' distribution range. Among them, 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8th and 0.2nd percentiles of their historical distributions, respectively, indicating that the market's pricing of future volatility has fallen to extremely low levels.

So far this week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows have reached $1.074 billion, rising in tandem with the cumulative spot volume delta, providing support for Bitcoin's price and offsetting some macroeconomic pressure. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the long-term holder net position change indicator is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which may be one of the reasons for the current sustained consolidation in Bitcoin's price.