Trump threatens to resume strikes on Iran after midterms; probability of U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasting until December stands at 39%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 21, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in an interview that the US and Iran are still conducting indirect negotiations through Pakistan and Qatar, and the US has agreed to the conditions of Iran's "seven-day plan" but wants to add additional terms. Trump had rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait within seven days on September 26; The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that Trump had told his staff he expected to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "US-Iran ceasefire lasting until December" has dropped from 46% yesterday to 39% currently. 2 smart money accounts are currently buying "No" in this market:

timmythewhale bought $12.3k. This account has an 80% win rate across 10 trades in the Middle East sector, of which prediction-type trades account for 40%, with PnL +$50.0k and ROI +8.9%. This trade's input is 0.22x its average input in this sector.
0xa50c5 bought $1k. This account has a 43.8% win rate across 16 trades in the Middle East sector, of which prediction-type trades account for 100%, with PnL +$5.9k and ROI +94.4%. This trade's input is 2.57x its average input in this sector.

On October 8, Trump wrote on Truth Social, "There will be no attack on Iran at any time before the midterm elections." According to NBC, the national average price of regular gasoline that day was about $4.36/gallon, up more than 45% from when the war began on February 28.

Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said on CNBC: "I think there is a big risk after the midterm elections that Trump will be pushed by regional allies and some people in Washington to take a tougher stance on Iran." According to The New York Times, the US and Israel have already formulated plans to strike Iran after the election, but some US officials say that in order to suppress oil prices, they may not strike oil facilities.