Earnings season combined with the release of macroeconomic data—can SPY reach new highs again this month?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that SPY's intraday high touches $790 in October is currently 35%.

thanksforplayin bought $399.24 of "No", with an implied probability of 53.37%. This trader has made 920 trades in the SPY category, with a 53% win rate, PnL +$27.8k, and this bet is 2.06 times their median bet size.

Reuters reported on October 15 that the S&P's push toward 8,000 points depends heavily on a "very, very strong" Q3 earnings season; LSEG expects S&P 500 Q3 earnings to grow about 30.6% year-over-year, but HSBC estimates that excluding the "Magnificent Seven," tech, and energy, the remaining constituents' earnings growth is only about 5%. Schwab's compiled schedule shows that from October 20, Netflix, General Motors, and others will report in quick succession; on October 21, Meta, Tesla, Texas Instruments, IBM, and others will cluster together; and on October 22, Procter & Gamble, Blackstone, Spotify, and others will follow—once AI-related guidance disappoints, heavyweight stocks will directly drag SPY away from $790.

The second factor is rates and the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics previously released hotter-than-expected September CPI and PPI (PPI about +1.3% month-over-month, about +6.3% year-over-year), which had pushed up rate-hike pricing; but around October 15, the stock market selloff triggered buying of bonds for safety, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back. Saxo wrote on October 16 that the October 28 FOMC decision is the next major catalyst, when the probability of an October rate hike had already fallen back to around 15%. A technical review pointed out that only if the previous high is reclaimed can there be any talk of opening the path to $790; if the $769 support is lost, the downside target could point to about $758.