Analyst: New BTC whales' realized market cap share rises to 1/3, holding above the $77,000 cost basis becomes key

BlockBeats news, October 16 — Analyst MorenoDV, citing CryptoQuant data, stated that Bitcoin's bear market has reshaped the capital structure of its largest holders. New whales now account for roughly one-third of the combined realized market cap of whales, making recent large holders increasingly important to the recovery.

As of October 15, new whales held $78.61 billion in realized market cap, while old whales held $159.15 billion: a 33.06% share, up from about 18% in early 2026. This measures the value at the time tokens last moved on-chain, not their share of the BTC supply.

This growth is also not merely a shift in relative weight. Since September, the realized market cap of new whales has continued to rise, while the market cap of old whales has remained broadly stable. As a result, the recent expansion has been concentrated among younger cohorts.

The realized price chart provides data support for this view. The combined cost basis of new whales fell from about $110,000 near the previous cycle peak to about $68,000 by the end of August, then rebounded to about $77,000. This is consistent with holdings being repriced at lower levels during the downturn and then re-engaging as prices recovered.

The data shows that whales accumulated during market weakness and continued into the recovery phase. This resembles the countercyclical positioning taken by strong hands, although cohort turnover and transfers mean that growth in realized market cap cannot be equated with an equivalent amount of new cash inflows.