Warsh refuses to pre-judge the remaining two rate decisions this year, with the probability of an October rate hike falling to about 17%.

BlockBeats news, October 16: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said on October 16 while attending the IMF meeting in Bangkok that he would not prejudge the outcome of the remaining two FOMC meetings this year, nor would he reveal in advance possible actions. He said: "This is a new chapter for the Fed. We no longer do that kind of thing." As for the signal recently sent by his colleagues that there is "no rush to hike rates this month," he neither explicitly supported nor refuted it.

Warsh reiterated that the Fed will achieve price stability, and said that since the September rate hike, the global economy has largely been in line with the central bank's expectations. He described recent actions by central banks around the world as a synchronized tightening of monetary policy in most regions globally. The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%, when most officials expected at least one more rate hike this year.

Although core CPI rose 0.33% month-on-month in September, marking a second consecutive month of relatively strong gains, and the latest producer price data were also strong, Warsh barely touched on this week's inflation report and made no obvious attempt to change market expectations for the October meeting. According to reports, the dollar weakened during his remarks, and market bets on an October rate hike fell from about 30% to about 17%.

From the perspective of policy signals, this is better interpreted as preserving decision-making space rather than a clear dovish turn. Warsh did not preview the next rate hike, but he also did not promise to stop tightening or shift to rate cuts. This speech continued the communication approach of reducing forward guidance, and market bets on a pause in October cannot be equated with a decision the Fed has already made.

In addition, Warsh believes the United States is experiencing large-scale investment growth and is optimistic about economic resilience and the productivity gains brought by AI, but warned that the path ahead will be "very bumpy," and that AI's short-term impact on employment is still unclear.

DBS macro strategist Wei Liang Chang commented on Warsh's latest remarks: "Hearing Warsh reiterate his belief that artificial intelligence will boost productivity in the medium term may help ease inflation expectations and reduce concerns about consecutive Fed rate hikes, and the market will feel reassured. The dollar and Treasury yields may pull back slightly, but the broader price action will still depend on whether U.S. stocks stabilize tonight."

Saxo Markets chief investment strategist Charu Chanana said: "Warsh's refusal to commit to another rate hike caused some Fed rate hike bets to be disappointed. After strong inflation data, his remark that 'I will not prejudge the meeting' did not help the dollar."