U.S. September PPI is expected to rise 0.6%, with diesel prices forecast to surge over 70% year-on-year, and inflationary transmission pressure is still not over.

BlockBeats news, October 15 — The U.S. September Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 15. U.S. diesel prices rose 24% month-over-month and 77% year-over-year in August. According to AAA data, the retail price of diesel briefly climbed to $6.528 per gallon on September 22, a record high, and stood at $6.30 as of Wednesday, up more than 70% from a year earlier. Oxford Economics expects U.S. September PPI to rise 0.6% month-over-month, above the market expectation of 0.5% and August's 0.4%.

Analysts noted that diesel is a critical input for road freight, rail transport, and agricultural production. Its price increase will first push up corporate production and transportation costs, then gradually pass through to consumers via fuel surcharges, transport contracts, and retail pricing. Even if diesel prices stop rising, cost pass-through may still lag, meaning inflationary pressure has not yet fully materialized.

The Trump administration has taken measures to ease fuel supply pressure, including temporarily relaxing certain restrictions on agricultural fuel use, and said Russia will supply diesel to global markets. But industry insiders believe these measures are unlikely to resolve refining capacity and refined product supply bottlenecks in the short term. The market will watch whether this PPI further confirms that the energy cost shock is spreading to corporate-level prices.