MicroStrategy to Be Removed from MSCI Index? A Single Account Holds 96% of the Shares in the Entire Market

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, MSCI, the company that compiles global stock benchmark indices, will announce the results of this round of consultation on "non-operating companies" no later than the 16th, including whether it has decided to remove MicroStrategy from the MSCI index. If it is actually removed, selling by funds and index providers that buy MSTR based on the index could pressure the stock price.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that MicroStrategy is removed from the MSCI index this year is about 65%. But this probability was almost single-handedly bought up by one person: TwoEyes bought $13.33k on "Yes," buying at a probability of 79.16%; in the MicroStrategy category, there have been 22 trades, with a 64% win rate, PnL of −$194.7k, and this trade is about 2.37 times the median investment, with the held shares accounting for 96% of the total "Yes" in that market.

It should be noted that the market's settlement rules state: only if MicroStrategy is actually removed from MSCI World or MSCI USA before 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026; a transfer between indices also counts; an official announcement that it will be removed or transferred is also sufficient. Merely announcing the adoption of new rules without naming it for removal from World/USA is not enough by itself.

If a removal announcement is indeed issued, pressure on the stock price is the mainstream narrative. JPMorgan estimated in the context of the previous consultation round: if only MSCI removes it, passive selling pressure would be about $2.8b; if other index providers follow suit, there would be another about $8.8b, bringing the commonly cited total to about $11b. The argument is that valuation, liquidity, and refinancing (issuing shares to buy crypto) will all become more difficult. The company side emphasizes that positions tracking MSCI GIMI account for about 3.1% of the basic shares, and the selling pressure is relatively manageable versus average daily trading volume.