Binance Report: BTC Rises 9.3% After Rate Hike, U.S. Treasury Yield Increase Primarily Driven by Real Rates

BlockBeats news, October 12 - Binance Research released a weekly report stating that the recent rise in US Treasury yields is mainly driven by higher real interest rates, rather than rising inflation expectations. Since August 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by a cumulative 47 basis points, of which real yields contributed 43 basis points, while the breakeven inflation rate rose by only 4 basis points. The 10-year real yield touched 2.95% on October 5, hitting a new high since 2008.

The report pointed out that since the Federal Reserve's rate hike on September 16, the S&P 500 index has risen 3.3%, and the semiconductor sector has risen 10.6%, but small-cap stocks and bank stocks have performed weakly, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index essentially flat. The crypto market also shows structural divergence: during the same period, BTC rose 9.3%, ETH rose 2.7%, and the median gain of the remaining 194 crypto assets reached 21%; Layer 2, real world assets (RWA), and AI tokens rose 32%, 29%, and 29% respectively, while MEME coins and payment-related tokens both rose 5%.

In terms of stock fund flows on the Binance platform, net inflows from October 5 to 9 reached $169 million, the highest level since early July. Among them, the semiconductor sector attracted $73 million in inflows, accounting for about 43% of the total, despite the semiconductor ETF falling 5% during the same period. Intel received $32 million in inflows, the highest among individual stocks, but its share price fell 12% during the same period; Nvidia received $10 million in inflows.

Looking ahead to this week, Binance Research believes that the US September CPI data and bank earnings guidance will become key variables. The market expects headline CPI year-over-year growth to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%; if the data comes in above expectations, it may reignite market bets on an October rate hike, with the current probability at about 20%. The report noted that real interest rates and corporate earnings guidance will determine the subsequent performance of risk assets, and whether BTC can sustain its rally will also be tested by fluctuations in US Treasury yields and ETF fund flows during the CPI release period.