What has been the impact of the U.S. indictment on Binance?
原文作者：Dane Lund
0x11, Foresight News
很多关于 Binance 的新闻都在流传， Binance 会因美国起诉而倒闭吗？
I think that's unlikely, and here's why I came to that conclusion (not financial or legal advice).
Let's start with the back story. Reuters published it todayThis article，详细说明了对 Binance 的涉嫌调查：
Unauthorized remittance;
Money laundering conspiracy;
Violation of criminal sanctions.
The survey was conducted in 2018.
路透社的报道称，「 Binance 的反洗钱控制措施薄弱，为寻求逃避美国制裁的犯罪分子和公司处理了超过 100 亿美元的付款，并密谋逃避美国和其他地方的监管。」
These are harsh charges.
Binance Denied the accuracy of the Reuters reportCZ said the media had ulterior motives.
我没有理由怀疑 Binance 或 CZ，特别是考虑到许多媒体对 SBF 的优待。所以我要问的问题是，如果 Binance 被起诉了怎么办？这意味着什么，会是 Binance 的终结吗？
I don't think so. Let's start with some key details. Since 2000, 4,517 corporate lawsuits have been filed; Only 56 resulted in a conviction through trial, about 1.2 percent.
One of the reasons there are so few corporate prosecutions is the "Andersen effect," which describes the belief that the Justice Department's decision to prosecute Andersen in the wake of the Enron scandal led to its collapse and the loss of some 28,000 jobs.
After Arthur Andersen, corporate prosecutions were "managed" and usually proceeded in one of three ways:
· Plea Agreement
· 延期起诉协议
· 不起诉协议
Plea deals allow the government to quickly secure convictions and plead guilty. Courts will still sentence companies, but plea deals typically give companies the right to challenge sentences that exceed the agreed penalties.
Deferred prosecution and non-prosecution agreements are similar to probation. The government would either agree to delay the lawsuit (and ultimately not bring it) or not bring it at all, but only if the company complied with certain agreed remedies.
These remedies could include:
· 罚款
· 返还非法所得
· 增强合规计划
· 聘请外部监督员监督合规性
· 定期审核
In serious cases of corporate wrongdoing, the government can exert control over the remedy process and can extract large fines. As any bank can tell you, a prosecution agreement puts the government inside the company.
So let's think about what would happen if the Reuters report were true? What are the possible solutions?
政府可以通过寻求审判来尝试关闭 Binance ，将引爆整个加密货币市场。但这需要很长时间才能成功，即便如此，也只会让 Binance 退出美国市场。
如果 Binance 遭到全面起诉，可能导致最终破产，对储户、债权人和雇员造成大量附带损害。很多人都会不高兴，加密怀疑论者说，他们想要避免的弊病会一下子发生。
I don't think that's likely.
If the government can secure a plea deal, DPA or NPA, it could gain more access to the inner workings of much of the cryptocurrency market. The government may expand its reach beyond Binance US and use monitors to better understand money laundering.
如果洗钱者和逃避制裁者将 Binance 视为有利的交易所，美国政府就有机会插手十字路口，并使用监控器和其他工具来加强其货币控制。
The government can also demand hefty fines. The largest fines so far have come from HSBC and jpmorgan Chase, which have received hefty fines of between $1 billion and $2 billion each for violating bank secrecy laws.
With a big fine, the government can declare victory and find a way to take precedence over any lender.
许多公司起诉的一个组成部分是，承诺在对涉及不法行为的个人的任何进一步起诉中进行合作。如果政府要与 Binance 谈判，协议条款将为合作提供信用。
When faced with the choice of creating huge volatility in pursuit of an uncertain win (or embarrassing loss) or the chance to gain real control of a company whose trade flows reach $1.6 trillion a month, any fool would choose the latter.
回过头来，上述一切都是假设，有可能幕后什么都没有发生，司法部也没有采取任何行动。随着规模的扩大， Binance 聘请了一些高素质的律师，甚至路透社的报道也表明司法部尚未决定是否提起诉讼。
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