The third-quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks is about to kick off, with "whether earnings growth is sufficient to match current valuations" becoming a focal point.

BlockBeats news, October 12 — The third-quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks is about to begin. Wall Street expects S&P 500 constituent companies' earnings to grow about 29%–31% year over year, with roughly two-thirds coming from large tech companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, while the semiconductor industry is seeing even faster earnings growth. The market's focus has shifted from "whether earnings are growing" to "whether earnings growth is enough to match current valuations." Investors will focus on finding three answers: whether AI capital expenditures can translate into actual revenue and profit, whether AI demand can spread from tech to more industries, and whether companies are beginning to feel the impact of rising financing costs.

The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 5%, and high interest rates continue to weigh on equity valuations, requiring companies to deliver stronger earnings to sustain high levels. Large banks will be the first to report earnings, providing key signals on credit demand, consumer credit quality, and the path of interest rates. The biggest market risk is that earnings expectations are already fully priced in, and only a clear beat can drive further valuation expansion; otherwise, high oil prices, high yields, and uncertainty around the AI return cycle could trigger greater volatility. Whether the AI growth story can be converted into AI profits will become the core test of the logic behind U.S. stocks' rally in this earnings season.

Key company earnings schedule (U.S. Eastern Time):

October 13 (Tuesday) pre-market: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and other large banks take the stage first;

October 14 (Wednesday): Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), ASML;

October 15 (Thursday): TSMC (TSM).

Tech giants report intensively in late October:

Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are expected after the close on October 27;

Meta is expected after the close on October 28;

Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are expected after the close on October 29;

Tesla (TSLA) is expected after the close on October 21;
NVIDIA (NVDA) is expected to report around November 17.

Crypto companies:

Coinbase (COIN) is expected after the close on October 29;

Strategy (MSTR) on October 29;

Miners Marathon (MARA) and Riot (RIOT) will report successively from late October to early November.