QCP: Bitcoin support near $80,000; a break above $87,000 could see a test of $94,000

BlockBeats news, October 12 - QCP Capital stated in a post that a year has passed since the crypto market set its record for the largest single-day liquidation on October 11 last year, and Bitcoin's trajectory now appears more stable. The large-scale repeated sell-offs that the market had feared did not materialize. Despite unease caused by the U.S. government's large transfer of Bitcoin and weekend reports of a hardware attack on Ledger devices, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable.

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through $87,000 but continues to trade in a range, with support near $80,000. Implied volatility remains at elevated levels, and risk reversals show that the premium of puts over calls is lower than usual, indicating reduced defensive positioning but still pricing in a breakout. If Bitcoin effectively breaks above $87,000, market focus will shift to $94,000. Historically, October is usually a strong month for the crypto market, with last year a clear exception, and options pricing suggests this seasonal pattern may re-emerge.

This week brings several important catalysts: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, and Warsh's speech at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings on Friday. If he again signals the hawkish stance he expressed at the Jackson Hole meeting, it could weigh on risk assets. Currently, the market expects about a 17% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, with keeping rates unchanged still the mainstream expectation, but this week's data could test that expectation. The options market also shows a clear bullish setup: large call butterfly spreads expiring October 30 with strike prices of $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 are the most concentrated open interest positions among contracts expiring at the end of October.